🚨Surprise Inflation Print, Rivian Skyrockets 20% | DraftKings & Pinterest CRASH | LIVE Feb 13

Key Concepts

• Market Volatility & Opportunity: The market is characterized by choppiness, requiring patience and a focus on identifying high-probability setups during pullbacks.
• Technical Analysis as Core Strategy: Chart patterns (ascending wedges, bull flags, flat top breaks), VWAP, EMAs, and volume analysis are central to trade identification and execution.
• Risk Management is Paramount: Strict stop-loss orders, incremental position building (DCA), and quick loss cutting are essential for preserving capital.
• News & Economic Data Impact: Geopolitical events, earnings reports, and economic indicators (CPI) can influence market sentiment and individual stock movements.
• Options Decay & Complexity: Options contracts are subject to rapid time decay, making them riskier than holding the underlying stock.
• AI’s Growing Influence: Artificial intelligence is driving growth in the semiconductor industry and impacting various sectors, including news curation and trading tools.

Market Overview & Economic Context

The overall market is described as choppy, with a focus on identifying buying opportunities during pullbacks. The IWM (Russell 2000) showed strength, up 1.8% during one session. Several economic events and news stories influenced trading decisions, including President Trump’s comments regarding Greenland, the EU’s antitrust probe into Google, and earnings reports from companies like Meta, Apple, Instacart, Pinterest, and Rivian. The CPI data release also impacted market sentiment. A recurring theme is the impact of AI on the semiconductor industry, driving capital expenditure and growth.

Trade Reviews & Performance

Sharief reviewed recent trades, including DK&NG (small loss), Rivian (mixed results), and Pins (stopped out with partial profit). The final trading session resulted in a small loss for the day, despite a slightly positive week overall. Specific trade reviews highlighted the challenges of trading breakouts, the importance of taking partial profits, and the need to adhere to stop-loss orders. Trades in Pins, TQ’s, Fly, and RIVN were analyzed, with RIVN representing the largest loss of the day.

Stock Specific Analysis & Trade Setups

Numerous stocks were analyzed throughout the sessions, including:

• MLEC: Identified as a small-cap gapper with a potential ascending wedge pattern. A long position was built incrementally, with a focus on a breakout above 10.50 and a stop-loss below 9.75/9.70.
• PHIO: Considered a potential flat top break candidate, but ultimately failed to materialize, resulting in a pullback of orders.
• FLY: Analyzed for consolidation patterns and potential short opportunities.
• CRML: Identified as a potential trade based on President Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland.
• RIVN: A loss was taken on a trade attempting to break VWAP.
• COIN: Performance impacted by the crypto winter, with XRP accounting for a significant portion of transaction revenue.
• META: Concerns were raised about accounting practices and the potential impact on the balance sheet.
• AAPL: Subject to an FTC investigation regarding potential political bias in Apple News.
• GOOG: Facing a new EU antitrust probe related to ad auction pricing.
• AAT (Applied Materials): Experienced a 9% stock increase following a strong earnings report, driven by AI demand.
• CART (Instacart): Q4 revenue beat expectations, but profitability missed.
• ABNB (Airbnb): Q4 revenue beat expectations, but faces growing pushback in certain cities.
• PINS (Pinterest): Plummeted after disappointing Q1 guidance and announced layoffs.
• RIG: A successful trade due to ample liquidity.

Trading Methodologies & Techniques

The trader employed several key methodologies:

• Flat Top Break Strategy: Identifying stocks consolidating near resistance and attempting to capitalize on potential breakouts.
• Dip Buying: Adding to positions during pullbacks to lower average entry price.
• VWAP & EMA Utilization: Using VWAP and EMAs as key support and resistance levels.
• Incremental Position Building (DCA): Adding to positions in small share sizes to manage risk.
• Level 2 Analysis: Utilizing Level 2 data to gauge buying and selling pressure.
• Candlestick Pattern Analysis: Interpreting candlestick patterns to assess market sentiment.

Conclusion

The sessions highlighted the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of day trading. Success requires a disciplined approach to risk management, a strong understanding of technical analysis, and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions. While opportunities exist, the potential for losses is ever-present, emphasizing the importance of patience, careful planning, and a willingness to cut losses quickly. The growing influence of AI and the impact of macroeconomic events further complicate the trading landscape, demanding continuous learning and adaptation.