Sudan war enters new phase: Who controls what after four years

Key Concepts

• Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF): The national military of Sudan.
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF): A paramilitary organization currently in conflict with the SAF.
• Geopolitical Fragmentation: The division of Sudanese territory into distinct zones of control between the two warring factions.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The catastrophic displacement and food insecurity resulting from the ongoing civil war.
• Asymmetric Warfare: The shift from conventional military engagements to drone strikes and attacks on critical infrastructure.

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Territorial Control and Strategic Divisions

The conflict in Sudan has resulted in a clear geographic bifurcation of the country:

• Sudanese Army (SAF) Strongholds: The SAF maintains control over the northern, eastern, and central regions of Sudan. This includes the capital, Khartoum (recaptured from the RSF last year), key Red Sea ports, and the majority of the nation’s oil refineries and pipelines.
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Strongholds: The RSF has consolidated power in the western Darfur region, successfully capturing all five regional state capitals.
• Contested Zones: The three Kordofan states remain fragmented, though the RSF has significantly expanded its footprint in this area, which is strategically vital due to its abundance of oil fields and gold mines.

The Siege of Al Fasher

A pivotal moment in the conflict was the fall of Al Fasher, the capital of North Darfur.

• Methodology: The RSF utilized an 18-month-long siege to isolate the city.
• Impact: The siege effectively severed all access to essential resources, including food, water, medical supplies, and humanitarian aid, eventually forcing the surrender of the army’s last stronghold in the region.

Expansion of the Conflict Fronts

The war has moved beyond its original theaters, opening new fronts:

• Blue Nile State: The RSF has formed a tactical alliance with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (Al-Hilu faction). In March of this year, this coalition successfully captured the city of Kurmuk, which borders Ethiopia, signaling a strategic expansion toward the east.

Evolution of Warfare Tactics

The nature of the conflict has shifted from conventional military engagements to more destructive, asymmetric tactics:

• Drone Strikes: There has been a marked increase in the use of drone technology.
• Targeting Infrastructure: Attacks are no longer limited to military outposts; they now frequently target critical civilian and economic infrastructure, such as the international airport in Khartoum.

Humanitarian Impact and Statistics

The UN has characterized the situation in Sudan as the "world's worst humanitarian crisis." The human cost of the conflict is severe:

• Displacement: Nearly 12 million people have been forced to flee their homes.
• Food Insecurity: Tens of millions of Sudanese citizens are currently facing acute hunger.
• Casualties: Recent data indicates that nearly 900 people have been killed within a two-month period alone.

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Synthesis

The conflict in Sudan has evolved into a protracted war of attrition characterized by a rigid territorial divide. While the SAF maintains control over the economic heartland (ports and refineries), the RSF has secured resource-rich western territories and expanded its reach through strategic alliances. The transition toward drone warfare and the targeting of critical infrastructure has exacerbated an already dire humanitarian situation, resulting in mass displacement and widespread famine. The fall of Al Fasher serves as a primary case study for the RSF’s strategy of using total isolation to overcome entrenched military positions.