Sudan’s war will worsen unless proxy powers stop and Sudanese unite, former FM warns

Key Concepts

• Geopolitical Shifts in the Middle East: The overarching theme of the Al Jazeera Forum, focusing on evolving power dynamics.
• Sudan Conflict: The ongoing civil war in Sudan, impacting over 14 million people.
• RSF (Rapid Support Forces): A Sudanese paramilitary group formerly part of the national army, currently engaged in conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces.
• Proxy Wars: Regional actors supporting different factions in Sudan, exacerbating the conflict.
• International & Regional Interference: The role of external actors in prolonging the Sudan conflict through financial and military support.
• Lack of Sudanese Unity: The absence of a unifying vision or leadership within Sudan to navigate the crisis.
• Gaza Conflict: The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its impact on regional stability.

The Al Jazeera Forum: Geopolitical Realities & the Sudan Crisis

The 17th Al Jazeera Forum in Doha is currently addressing significant geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and globally. A central concern raised by speakers is the detrimental impact of the Israeli actions in Gaza on international norms and the reshaping of regional power dynamics. However, the forum is also heavily focused on the escalating crisis in Sudan, affecting over 14 million people.

The Sudan Conflict: A Deepening Crisis

Mustafa Osman Ishmael Alamin, Sudan’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs, discussed the state of the Arab world and the complexities of regional conflicts, with a particular emphasis on Sudan. He highlighted that despite ongoing talks between the warring parties, a swift resolution remains unlikely. He identified three key factors hindering progress:

1. Deep Mistrust: A “high level of mistrust” exists between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), stemming from the RSF’s origins as part of the national army and subsequent rebellion. The conflict, initially anticipated to last weeks or months, is now entering its third year.
2. Civilian Casualties: Heavy civilian casualties are complicating the Sudanese government’s ability to effectively pursue a resolution.
3. External Interference: Regional and international actors are contributing to the prolongation of the conflict by providing financial support and weapons, often prioritizing their own interests over those of Sudan. He stated these actors “are not the root cause of the problem but they intensify the problem. They prolong the problem. They turn the the problem to be settled according to their interest, not according to the Sudan interest.”

The Role of Regional Actors & Proxy Wars

The discussion centered on the detrimental role of regional actors and the continuation of proxy wars in Sudan. Alamin emphasized the lack of a “unifying offer” that Sudanese citizens can rally behind, with various groups aligning themselves with different external supporters. He argued that a unifying force is needed, prioritizing Sudanese interests above all else.

He proposed a two-pronged solution:

1. Internal Sudanese Unity: Sudanese citizens must come together to forge a shared vision and create space for external assistance.
2. Targeted International Support: A small group of capitals, recognizing the potential for regional spillover, should be selected by Sudan to provide support. He stressed the conflict’s complexity necessitates external help, stating, “to leave it to the Sudan alone, it's going to be very difficult.” He also noted the scale of humanitarian casualties necessitates a swift resolution.

Broader Regional Implications

Asama Javeed, reporting live from the forum, underscored that the fallout from conflicts in Gaza and Sudan extends beyond immediate neighboring countries, impacting regional powers and the international community. He concluded that without a cessation of proxy wars, the situation is likely to worsen.

Synthesis & Key Takeaways

The Al Jazeera Forum highlights a deeply unstable Middle East, with the Gaza conflict and the Sudanese civil war serving as focal points. The Sudan crisis is characterized by internal divisions, deep-seated mistrust, and significant external interference. A resolution requires both a unified Sudanese vision and targeted, disinterested international support. The forum’s discussions suggest a pessimistic outlook, warning that the continuation of proxy wars will likely exacerbate the suffering of Sudanese civilians and further destabilize the region.