Sudan’s Tawila faces ‘catastrophic’ conditions as thousands flee RSF violence: MSF

Key Concepts

• International Criminal Court (ICC): An intergovernmental organization and international tribunal that was founded to end impunity for the perpetrators of genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and the crime of aggression.
• War Crimes: Serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in international armed conflict and in serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in armed conflict of a non-international character.
• Crimes Against Humanity: Widespread or systematic attacks directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack.
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF): A paramilitary group in Sudan, often described as a Janjaweed militia, that has been involved in the conflict in Darfur.
• Sudan Army: The official armed forces of Sudan.
• Famine: A severe shortage of food, resulting in widespread hunger and starvation.
• Internally Displaced Person (IDP): A person who is forced to flee their home but who remains within their country's borders.
• Ceasefire: A temporary suspension of fighting.
• Humanitarian Access: The ability of humanitarian organizations to reach people in need of assistance.
• Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières - MSF): An international humanitarian medical non-governmental organization best known for its projects in conflict zones and in countries affected by endemic diseases.
• Quad: A group of four countries (United States, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt) attempting to mediate a ceasefire in Sudan.

Atrocities in Alfasia and the Darfur Region

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued a warning that the repeated atrocities committed in Alfasia, a city in Sudan's Darfur region, may constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. These brutal acts are seen as part of a larger pattern of violence that has been ongoing in Darfur since 2023. Reports indicate mass killings, rape, and abductions, particularly following the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces' (RSF) expulsion of the Sudan Army from Alfasia in the preceding week.

Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement

Aid agencies report that approximately 200,000 people are currently trapped in Alfasia and the wider Darfur region, facing dire conditions with dwindling supplies of food and water. Tens of thousands more, predominantly women and children, have been forced to flee on foot. Some survivors have undertaken arduous journeys of hundreds of kilometers to reach safety, such as a displacement camp in Aldaba, northern state.

Famine and Blocked Aid

The United Nations has stated that famine, already declared in other parts of Sudan, is worsening. The crisis is deepening, and the ability of aid to reach those most in need is severely hampered. While roads to displacement camps like Aldaba are open and considered safe for aid organizations, the primary obstacle is funding. However, in areas like Alfasia, the issue is not funding but access.

A report on famine in Alfasia, or Alfasia being identified as an area affected by famine, predates the RSF's takeover of the city. This was due to an 18-month siege by the RSF, which prevented essential supplies such as food, humanitarian aid, and medical necessities from entering. According to Sudan's Doctors' Networks, this blockade resulted in at least three deaths daily, with children being the most affected.

Survivors' Accounts and Long Journeys

Individuals in the Aldaba camp have shared harrowing stories of their escape. Many reported walking for days on empty stomachs, covering distances of up to 600 kilometers to reach Tawila, or over 1,000 kilometers to Aldaba. They relied on the kindness of strangers for even a single meal a day. The lack of humanitarian action in North Darur, coupled with ongoing violence and restrictions imposed by the RSF on aid organizations, meant that aid could not reach those in desperate need. Even in the Aldaba camp, displaced individuals continue to require food and medication, but aid organizations have yet to reach them with the necessary assistance.

Efforts Towards a Ceasefire

Tentative efforts are underway to broker a possible ceasefire. The United States, in conjunction with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, has formed a group known as the "Quad." These four nations are attempting to mediate a three-month ceasefire between the Sudan Army and the RSF.

Pre- and Post-Alfasia Takeover Mediation

These mediation efforts were ongoing before the RSF took control of Alfasia, with a focus on breaking the siege imposed on the city to allow humanitarian assistance. With Alfasia now under RSF control, the focus has shifted to other besieged areas and regions experiencing active fighting. The aim is to secure a ceasefire that would also guarantee unhindered humanitarian access.

The Ceasefire Plan and Potential Outcomes

The proposed plan envisions a three-month ceasefire, during which talks would commence between the Sudan Army and the RSF. The ultimate goal is to pave the way for a more permanent ceasefire and an agreement that would end the conflict and allow Sudan to resume its transition to democracy.

Sudanese Government's Objections

However, the Sudanese government has expressed objections to the Quad's involvement, specifically citing the United Arab Emirates' role. The government has accused the UAE of backing the RSF. The Security and Defense Council is scheduled to meet to discuss a potential agreement related to this deal, but the outcome remains uncertain. Despite this, Sudan is reportedly considering a US proposal for a three-month ceasefire, which is hoped to lead to a longer-term peace agreement.

Situation in Tawila with Doctors Without Borders

Silvan Penon, a project coordinator with Doctors Without Borders (MSF), provided an update from Tawila.

Security and Humanitarian Conditions in Tawila

As of the report, the security situation in Tawila, located 60 kilometers west of Alfasia, is stable. The area is under the control of an armed group other than the RSF. However, the humanitarian situation is described as "catastrophic," with an estimated 800,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) already present. These IDPs arrived over the past 18 months during the siege of Alfasia. The expectation is that this already dire situation will deteriorate further in the coming weeks with the arrival of more civilians seeking safety from Alfasia and the journey from it.

Low Arrivals from Alfasia and Possible Explanations

Despite the proximity of Tawila to Alfasia, the number of arrivals from Alfasia has been surprisingly low. In the initial days following Alfasia's fall on October 26th, there were approximately 2,000 to 3,000 arrivals. However, this number quickly decreased to 100 to 200 new arrivals per day. This is significantly lower than the UN and humanitarian community's initial forecasts, which estimated between 100,000 to 200,000 arrivals in the coming weeks.

The low numbers are difficult to interpret. Possible explanations include:

• People remaining trapped in Alfasia due to the ongoing famine.
• Escape routes from Alfasia being completely blocked, with many individuals stuck en route, potentially blocked by soldiers.
• A combination of both factors.
• Casualties in Alfasia over the past week may also contribute to the lower numbers.

Despite the low caseload, there is significant concern for the situation.

Concerns for Humanitarian Supply Lines and Tawila's Safety

There are concerns that humanitarian supply lines could be cut or affected by the RSF. While Tawila is currently considered safe and a viable humanitarian space, the front lines are nearby. Agreements between local armed groups and the RSF aim to keep the city safe. However, the memory of Tawila being looted in 2023 is still fresh for its inhabitants, leading to some apprehension about the current situation and preparedness for potential future scenarios.

Conclusion

The situation in Sudan, particularly in Alfasia and the Darfur region, is dire, marked by widespread atrocities, a deepening humanitarian crisis, and significant displacement. While mediation efforts for a ceasefire are underway, access to affected populations remains a critical challenge, exacerbated by ongoing conflict and blockades. The low number of arrivals from Alfasia to safer havens like Tawila raises serious concerns about the fate of those still trapped and the dangers of their escape routes. Humanitarian organizations are working under difficult conditions, highlighting the urgent need for unhindered access and sustained support for the affected population.