Strikes on Russian strategic sites show Ukraine 'ramping up long-range strikes' • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Long-range drone warfare: The use of unmanned aerial vehicles to strike targets deep within Russian territory.
• Strategic infrastructure targeting: Attacks on oil terminals and weapons manufacturing plants to disrupt Russian war financing and logistics.
• Front-line momentum: The shift in territorial control as reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
• Psychological warfare: Bringing the reality of the war to Russian citizens living far from the front lines.

---

1. Strategic Strikes on Russian Soil

Ukraine has significantly escalated its long-range drone campaign, targeting critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. Key incidents include:

• St. Petersburg Oil Terminal: A major facility hit just before the city hosted an international economic forum (often referred to as the "Russian Davos").
• Kronstadt Naval Base: Targeted alongside the oil terminal in St. Petersburg.
• Progress Plant (Tambov Region): A critical weapons manufacturing facility located approximately 600 km from the Ukrainian border.

Significance of the Strikes:

• Economic Disruption: By targeting oil production, Ukraine aims to cripple the revenue streams Russia uses to finance its military operations.
• Logistical Disruption: Striking the Progress Plant directly impacts Russia’s ability to replenish its weapons supply.
• Symbolic Impact: Timing attacks to coincide with high-profile events like the St. Petersburg economic forum serves to undermine the image of Russian security and stability.
• Psychological Pressure: These strikes demonstrate to the Russian population—even those far from the front lines—that the war is not contained to the border regions.

2. The Strategy of Long-Range Sanctions

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has framed these operations as a "plan for long-range sanctions."

• Technical Reach: Ukraine has demonstrated the capability to strike targets as far as 1,100 km to 1,400 km from its border.
• Methodology: The strategy relies on the increasing deployment of long-range drones to bypass traditional front-line defenses and hit the "doorstep" of the Russian interior.

3. Front-Line Developments and Territorial Shifts

According to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the momentum of the conflict is showing signs of shifting:

• Territorial Data: For the first time since the start of the war, Russia has experienced two consecutive months of territorial decline.
  • April: Russia lost 116 square kilometers.
  • May: Russia lost 281 square kilometers.
• Contextual Analysis: While these figures are marginal relative to the total size of Ukraine, they represent a major psychological and tactical shift. Previously, Russia had consistently gained territory every month since the invasion began. The ability of Ukrainian forces to halt the Russian offensive and reclaim ground indicates a potential turning point in the "grinding war."

4. Notable Statements

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy (via X): "Ukraine's plan for long-range sanctions is being implemented exactly as needed."
• Ketevan Gordestani (International Affairs Editor): Emphasized that the significance of the recent strikes lies not just in the damage caused, but in the strategic choice of targets—oil facilities and weapons plants—which directly attack the pillars of the Russian war effort.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The current phase of the conflict is defined by a dual-track approach from Ukraine: a defensive stabilization on the front lines and an aggressive, long-range offensive deep within Russia. By combining tactical gains on the ground—as evidenced by the ISW’s territorial data—with strategic strikes on Russian economic and military infrastructure, Ukraine is attempting to disrupt the Russian war machine's sustainability. The shift from a purely defensive posture to one that forces the Russian public and leadership to confront the war's reach marks a significant evolution in the conflict's trajectory.