Strike sets thermal power plant ‘ablaze’ inside Russia | Ukraine: The Latest

Key Concepts

• Picrosp (Pikrosk): A city in Ukraine where intense fighting is occurring, with reports of Russian troops entering civilian areas.
• War Crime: The act of Russian soldiers allegedly fighting in civilian clothes, which is a violation of international law.
• Long-Range Strikes: Ukraine's continued attacks on energy facilities within Russia.
• IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency): An organization that has issued a warning about Russian strikes impacting nuclear safety at three Ukrainian power plants.
• Creonte: A lost opera by Ukrainian composer Dmitri Bortniansky, which recently premiered after being rediscovered.
• Mobilization: The ongoing and sometimes contentious process of recruiting men into the Ukrainian army, leading to incidents of violence.
• Coalition of the Willing: A group of countries supporting Ukraine, with a secret summit planned in Madrid to discuss aid and security guarantees.
• Russian Maximalist Claims: Russia's demands for Ukraine to cede territory, reduce its armed forces, and renounce NATO membership as preconditions for peace talks.
• Hungarian Oil Dependency: Hungary's continued reliance on Russian oil despite EU sanctions, and its strained relationship with Croatia over transit routes.
• EU Trade Bans: Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia's defiance of EU efforts to reset trade relations with Ukraine by maintaining unilateral import bans.
• Chinese Support for Russia: Beijing's continued backing of Moscow, despite EU sanctions targeting Chinese entities.
• Lukoil Foreign Asset Sale: The sale of Lukoil's foreign assets to a company founded by a Putin ally, coinciding with US sanctions.

Military Updates

Picrosp (Pikrosk) Situation

• Accelerated Russian Advance: Russian forces are reportedly making an accelerated advance into Picrosp, with firm positions established in the southwest sector of the city. This sector is described as being from the "six to nine o'clock" position on a clock face relative to the city center.
• Russian Presence in City Center: There are also reports of Russian forces extending into the city center from the east.
• No Surrender or Encirclement: Despite the Russian advance, Picrosp and neighboring Myrnohrad are not believed to be surrounded. Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, visited the area and stated that Russian claims of encircling Ukrainian forces are false.
• Caveats to Reports:
  • Accuracy: Obtaining accurate details is extremely difficult.
  • City Destruction: Picrosp is largely a "smashed landscape of rubble," making specific location claims less meaningful.
  • Probing Tactics: Russia is employing tactics of pushing small groups of soldiers (single digits) to probe, raid, and secure hard cover, rather than a clear line of advance.
  • Artillery Fire: Both sides, but particularly Russia, can bring accurate fire onto areas they do not hold.
• Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Report: ISW, citing Ukrainian military sources, reports that Russian forces are exploiting poor weather to push into the city.
• War Crime Allegation: ISW, again citing Ukrainian military sources, states that some Russian soldiers are dressing as civilians while assaulting the city. This is explicitly identified as a war crime under international law.
  • Evidence: An image from German media outlet Bild reportedly shows a Russian soldier in civilian clothes with no insignia operating from a high-rise building in Picrosp.
  • Precedent: The Telegraph reported similar accusations in August regarding the assault on Picrosp, and there were also allegations during the assault on Toretsk earlier this year.

Other Strikes and Incidents

• Sumy Hit Again: Sumy was heavily hit last night, with Ukrainian Red Cross volunteers providing first aid. A nine-story building and an infrastructure site were damaged. Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported that Russia launched 10 drones in less than an hour.
• Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro: These cities were hit by glide bombs yesterday.
• Mykolaiv and Odesa Vicinity: Drone strikes were reported in these areas.
• Kyiv Parcel Explosion: A parcel exploded at a post office in Kyiv's Solomianskyi district, injuring five employees.
  • Attribution: A source cited by Ukraine's Kaprada attributed the explosion to an attempt to mail a part of a grenade launcher.
  • Customs Inspection: The explosion occurred during a customs inspection of international postal shipments for export.
  • Investigation: Two customs officials and three postal employees were injured. The sender has been identified, and all their shipments suspended.

Mobilization Tensions

• Draft Office Shooting: Two soldiers at a draft office in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, were injured after a man shot them while being mobilized. The incident occurred around 4:30 PM local time, when the man, being escorted to the recruitment center, pulled out a Tokarev pistol and opened fire.
• Odessa Recruitment Officers Attacked: The previous morning, residents of Odesa attacked recruitment officers at a market.
• Mobilization Law: Martial law has been in effect since the full-scale invasion. Able-bodied men aged 25 to 60 are eligible for forced draft and require special permission to leave the country. The age limit was recently lowered from 27 to 25.
• "Grabbing Men Off the Street": Reports of military-aged men being apprehended by recruitment officers to ascertain their volunteer status, initially dismissed as Russian disinformation, have become a widespread practice.
• Manpower Shortage: This practice is driven by Ukraine's battlefield manpower shortage.
• Exodus of Young Men: Since allowing men aged 18-23 to leave the country a few months ago, reports suggest up to 100,000 individuals in this age bracket have left, depleting the military and economic workforce.

IAEA Warning on Nuclear Power Plants

• IAEA Press Release: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a statement on the situation in Ukraine, reporting that Russian strikes damaged substations vital to nuclear safety at three of Ukraine's five nuclear power plants.
• Affected Plants:
  • South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant: Located in Mykolaiv Oblast, it is the second largest of the five.
  • Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant: Located further north and west.
  • Rivne Nuclear Power Plant: Located north of Khmelnytskyi, near the border with Belarus and Poland.
• Impact:
  • South Ukraine and Khmelnytskyi: Both plants lost access to one of their offsite power lines.
  • Rivne: The plant reduced the power of two of its four units at the request of the grid operator.
• IAEA Director General's Statement: Rafael Grossi stated, "The dangers to nuclear safety continue to be very real and ever-present. I once again call for maximum military restraint in the vicinity of nuclear facilities."
• Deliberate Targeting: The report highlights that these three sites are well away from the contact battle, suggesting that any impact from munitions would likely be deliberate. The IAEA has not explicitly stated this, but Ukrainian officials have.

Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes Inside Russia

• Targeted Facilities: Energy facilities in Russia's Oryol, Vladimir, and Yaroslavl Oblasts were attacked.
• Oryol Oblast: The thermal power plant, the region's largest source of electricity and heat, was hit. Residents reported explosions, and surveillance footage captured a large blast. The governor claimed the damage was from "debris from intercepted drones."
  • Astra Report: Russian opposition news channel Astra reported two strikes on the Oryol plant, causing blackouts and suggesting the attack did not sound like drones.
• Vladimir Oblast: The Vladimir electrical substation, described as a critical Russian energy hub, was struck. Footage showed flames rising from the substation. The governor stated that all systems were operating normally.
• Yaroslavl Oblast: The Novorossiysk-Yaroslavl oil refinery, the largest in northern Russia, was also attacked.
• Russian Air Defenses: Russian air defenses were reportedly active over Vladimir and Yaroslavl.

Secret Summit in Madrid

• "Coalition of the Willing" Summit: Spanish newspaper El Mundo reports on a secret private summit of the "coalition of the willing" to take place in Madrid.
• Participants: Top officials from 35 countries are expected to attend.
• Agenda: Discussion of aid to Ukraine and coordination of security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression.
• Secrecy: Participants will not be allowed phones, and are requested not to publicize the meeting on social media.
• Potential Motivation: The report speculates this could be Spain's attempt to demonstrate leadership or respond to criticism from the Trump administration regarding Spain's refusal to meet the NATO spending pledge of 5% of GDP on defense.

Political and Diplomatic Front

Trump-Putin Meeting Collapse

• Russian Memo: A memo from Russia's Foreign Minister to the US Secretary of State reportedly outlined Russia's maximalist claims: Ukraine must cede territory, reduce its armed forces, and pledge never to join NATO. Moscow also demanded control of remaining Donetsk region territories as a precondition for peace talks.
• Phone Call: This memo triggered a phone call between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Blinken reportedly informed Trump that Moscow was unwilling to negotiate.
• Trump's Reaction: A source close to the discussions told the Financial Times that Trump was unimpressed and annoyed by Putin boasting about battlefield gains near Kaplansk and the Oskil River during a call on October 16th.
• Future Meetings: No date is set for a meeting in Budapest, but it is expected to be on the agenda for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's meeting with Trump in Washington.

Hungary's Oil Dependency and Croatia Dispute

• Orbán's Stance: Orbán has maintained that Hungary cannot quit Russian oil without jeopardizing its energy security and risking price increases.
• Alternative Supply: Hungary has yet to make firm plans to replace its Russian oil supply.
• Croatia as Alternative: Hungary's main alternative is the Adria pipeline, which transports imported oil via Croatian ports.
• Accusations Against Croatia: Hungary has accused Croatia of imposing "extortionate transit fees" and claims Croatia's pipeline system is not physically capable of meeting its oil needs.
• Croatian Response: Croatia's Economy Minister stated these accusations are "longstanding and 100% not true," calling them an "excuse for buying Russian oil."
• Hungary's Deepening Dependency: While the EU's share of Russian crude imports has decreased significantly, Hungary's dependency has increased from 61% pre-war to 86% in 2024.

EU Trade Bans on Ukrainian Goods

• Defiance by Hungary, Poland, Slovakia: These countries are maintaining unilateral import bans on Ukrainian goods, defying EU efforts to reset trade relations with Kyiv.
• EU Trade Deal: This defiance occurs despite a trade deal between Kyiv and the EU that came into effect on Wednesday.
• Brussels' Reluctance: Brussels has been hesitant to act since the bans were introduced in 2023, hoping the updated trade deal would render them redundant.
• Political Fraughtness: The defiance highlights the politically sensitive nature of the EU's trade relationship with Ukraine, with capitals challenging Brussels to prioritize Kyiv over member states.
• EU Commission's Stance: Commission Deputy Spokesperson Olaf Gils stated there is "no justification for maintaining these national measures" and that the EU executive would intensify contact with Warsaw, Budapest, and Bratislava.
• Legal Action: The European Commission has not ruled out taking legal action against the three countries.
• Political Considerations: Politico notes that taking Poland to court could strain relations with Donald Tusk's pro-EU government, while singling out Hungary and Slovakia might appear as a double standard.

China's Support for Russia

• US-China Agreement on Ukraine: Trump told reporters that the US and China agree that the sides are "locked in fighting in Ukraine and sometimes you have to let them fight." He also stated that Xi Jinping "is going to help us and we're going to work together."
• EU Efforts to Sway Beijing: Brussels has been unsuccessful in persuading Beijing to cease supporting Russia's war.
• EU Sanctions: At the urging of the White House, the EU included Chinese banks and refineries in its latest sanctions rounds, alleging they were helping Moscow evade sanctions.
• Chinese Response: Top Chinese officials branded the sanctions as "unacceptable" during a meeting with European Council President Charles Michel in Asia.
• EU Officials' Criticism: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell have explicitly criticized Beijing's support for Moscow, with von der Leyen stating in July that it had a "direct and dangerous impact on European security."

Lukoil Foreign Asset Sale

• Lukoil Targeted by US Sanctions: Lukoil is one of the Russian oil giants targeted by new US sanctions.
• Deal with Gunvor: Lukoil reached a deal to sell its foreign assets to Gunvor, a company founded by an ally of Putin.
• Gunvor's Background: Gunvor is registered in Cyprus and headquartered in Switzerland. It was founded in 1997 by Gennady Timchenko, a close associate of Putin, and Swedish billionaire Torbjörn Törnqvist.
• Timchenko's Stake Sale: In 2014, Timchenko sold his 44% stake in Gunvor to Törnqvist, who now holds 88%.
• Sanctions Coincidence: The sale coincided with US sanctions imposed against Timchenko, who is a citizen of Russia and Finland.
• US Secretary of State's Statement: The US Secretary of State stated that Timchenko's activities in the energy sector have been directly linked to Putin, and that Putin may have investments in or access to Gunvor funds.

Cultural Revival: The Opera "Creonte"

Rediscovery and Premiere

• Lost Opera: The opera "Creonte" by Ukrainian composer Dmitri Bortniansky, lost for 250 years, premiered earlier this month in Chernihiv.
• UNESCO Patronage: The revival received patronage from UNESCO, along with support from Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the NGO Europa Nostra.
• Initiation: The project was initiated by the Chernihiv city community, with support from the mayor's office and city council.
• Composer's Background: Dmitri Bortniansky was born and raised in Hlukhiv, the capital of the Hetmanate (an autonomous republic in Ukraine). He was taken to the imperial court at age 16 and received a scholarship to study in Venice.
• Venetian Premiere: "Creonte" had its premiere in Venice in 1776 and was a significant success.
• Manuscript Loss: After the premiere, the manuscripts were considered lost, with only one aria circulating globally.
• Rediscovery: Ukrainian musicologist Dr. Olena Shamilina discovered the score in the archives of the Biblioteca Nacional de Portugal in Lisbon.
• Revival Drive: Musicologist Maestro Herman Makarenko is credited as the driving force behind the project, aiming to bring the opera to life.

The Opera's Revolutionary Ideas

• Libretto: Bortniansky chose a libretto by Callegari and slightly altered the ending of Sophocles' "Antigone."
• Thematic Shift: While "Antigone" is a tragedy with Antigone's death, Bortniansky's "Creonte" features a revolutionary ending where the people rise up, go to Antigone's cave, and crown her as queen. This signifies the triumph of love and a happy ending, which was crucial for operas of that era.
• Focus on Creonte: The opera's title was changed from "Antigone" to "Creonte," focusing on the figure of the tyrant. The opera explores how Creonte becomes increasingly tyrannical, even willing to kill his own son for disobedience.
• Symbolism: The ending, where the people overthrow the tyrant and crown Antigone, is seen as highly symbolic, especially in the current context of Ukraine's fight against tyranny.

Reasons for the Opera's Disappearance

• Revolutionary Ideas: The opera's themes of freedom and democracy, emerging during the eve of the French Revolution and the American Revolution, may have been unpopular in imperialistic Europe.
• Potential Censorship or Self-Censorship: It is suggested that Bortniansky, as a young and ambitious composer, may have had to communicate with the Russian Empire at the time. The revolutionary ideas might have been seen as a threat to his career, leading him to potentially hide the opera himself in the Lisbon archives.

The Premiere Experience

• Success: The premiere in Chernihiv was a success, with the opera house full and a large screen outside for additional viewers.
• International Guests: Diplomats and journalists from various countries attended.
• Theatrical Resonance: The stage and core of the Chernihiv Drama Theater closely resemble the drawings of the stage at San Benedetto Opera in Venice, creating a fitting acoustic environment.
• Air Raid Alert: An air raid alert occurred during the performance, causing the curtain to fall and the soloist to pause. Fortunately, it was not a prolonged threat, and Chernihiv's western location is considered relatively safe.
• Symbolism of Resilience: The premiere during wartime is seen as a powerful symbol of Ukrainian resilience, demonstrating that culture continues to thrive despite the enemy's attempts to suppress it.

Future Plans for "Creonte"

• International Tour: The team hopes to share the opera on stages worldwide, with a particular interest in London.
• Sponsorship and Partnerships: They are actively seeking sponsorship and partner theaters for this endeavor.
• Venice and UNESCO: Plans include bringing the opera to Venice for its 250th anniversary next year and staging it at UNESCO headquarters.

Other Ukrainian Composers and Artists

• Dmitri Bortniansky: Known for his three operas and church music.
• Mykola Lysenko: Composer.
• Myroslav Skoryk: Known for "Melody" (often referred to as "Carols of the Bells").
• Borys Lyatoshynsky: Composer.

Final Thoughts

Picrosp and Russian Narrative

• Desperate Win for Putin: Putin is seen as desperate for a victory, with Russian casualties exceeding 1.1 million and inflation at 9%.
• Picrosp as a Potential Victory: The fall of Picrosp is anticipated and will likely be portrayed by Russia as a sign of the inevitability of Russian victory.
• Putin's Terms for Peace: Putin will use this perceived victory to dictate terms for any peace negotiations to Donald Trump, demanding territorial concessions, Ukrainian military demilitarization, and no NATO membership for Ukraine.
• Anticipating Russian Narratives: Listeners are urged to watch for these recurring Russian narratives, which will likely be presented in concert.

Reaction to Russian Narratives

• White House and European Reaction: The reaction from the White House and, to a lesser extent, Europe, is considered more important than the Russian narratives themselves.
• Amplification of Arguments: The focus will be on who amplifies these arguments, potentially suggesting that Ukraine fought bravely but ultimately faced an inevitable outcome.
• Ignoring Wider Realities: The concern is that these narratives might ignore the broader realities of the situation.

Coalition of the Willing Summit

• Public Statement: It is hoped that the summit in Madrid will result in a public statement, and its strength will be assessed.
• Acknowledging Realities: The statement's acknowledgment of any potential light or the futility of certain approaches will be observed.

Russian Discontent with Halloween

• Cultural Clash: Russians are reportedly unhappy with Halloween, viewing it as a holiday with no roots in their traditions that distracts children from national values.
• Bans and Restrictions: There have been bans on Halloween celebrations in some parts of Russia and occupied Donetsk.
• "Threat from the West": The celebration of Halloween, including dressing children as witches, is seen as a "very important threat from the West." Maria Zakharova has reportedly commented on this.