Strategic autonomy, defense and energy requirements — What's behind India's Russia gambit? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Strategic Partnership: The enduring and close relationship between India and Russia, rooted in historical ties and mutual strategic interests.
• Defense Inventory: India's significant reliance on Russian-origin defense equipment, including fighter jets, frigates, and air defense systems.
• Technology Sharing: Russia's willingness to share technology with India, a key differentiator compared to Western partners.
• Multipolarity/Multipolarism: India's foreign policy objective of fostering a world order with multiple centers of power, where countries like India, Russia, and China play significant roles.
• Strategic Autonomy: India's policy of maintaining independence in its foreign policy decisions, avoiding alignment with any single bloc.
• Trade Deficit: The significant imbalance in trade between India and Russia, with Russia exporting substantially more to India than vice versa.
• Tariffs: Punitive trade measures imposed by Western countries, particularly the US, on Indian goods, impacting India's trade balance and its relationship with Russia.
• Oil Imports: India's increased reliance on discounted Russian crude oil following the Ukraine war, and the subsequent Western pressure to curb these imports.
• Balancing Act: India's complex foreign policy challenge of maintaining relationships with both Russia and the West (US and EU) amidst geopolitical tensions.

India-Russia State Visit and Bilateral Ties

Vladimir Putin's state visit to India marks his first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite Western isolation, Putin is expected to receive a warm reception from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India's relationship with Moscow has remained robust, even as global tensions rise and pressure mounts from the US and EU to reduce Russian oil imports. This enduring partnership is attributed to historical ties dating back to India's independence and the Cold War era, when Russia was part of the Soviet Union.

Historical Significance and Defense Cooperation

Archana Up, a Russia expert, highlights Russia's crucial role in India's developmental trajectory, particularly in the defense sector. Even today, Russia's contribution to India's defense inventory surpasses that of any other nation. A key aspect of this relationship is Russia's willingness to share technology. For instance, following the retirement of India's last Russian MiG-21 fighter jets, discussions are underway for joint production of next-generation combat aircraft with Russia, demonstrating a commitment to future defense collaboration. As Professor Up notes, "Russia acts where others preach," contrasting with Western approaches.

India's Sensitivity to Western Lecturing

India is highly sensitive to what it perceives as "lecturing" from the West, particularly concerning issues like human rights violations, religious freedom, or the nature of Indian democracy. Russia, in contrast, has historically refrained from such criticism. This mutual understanding has solidified their bond, especially given Russia's past support for India during hostilities over Kashmir and after the 1998 nuclear tests, which led to US-led sanctions.

India's Neutrality in the Ukraine War and Oil Imports

India's loyalty to Russia was demonstrated by its neutral stance in the Ukraine war, a conflict many in India view as a consequence of NATO's eastward expansion. Following Russia's invasion, India emerged as the second-largest buyer of discounted Russian crude oil, trailing only China. However, unlike China, India has faced specific pressure from the West, with the US imposing significant tariffs on Indian goods. This has led to accusations of Western hypocrisy, as noted by some observers: "If you look at it, China is buying much more oil than India. So is Europe managing to have its contacts with Russia."

Strategic Autonomy and Multi-Alignment

Since gaining independence, India has adhered to a non-alignment policy, aiming to remain outside of blocs and preserve its strategic autonomy. The current Modi government continues this approach but with a "multi-alignment twist." This strategy allows India to engage with rivals like China when it serves its interests. The concept of multipolarity is central to this approach, with countries like India, Russia, and China actively working towards a world order with multiple power centers.

Public Opinion and Putin's Popularity

Public sentiment in India largely aligns with the government's foreign policy. Russia remains popular, and Vladimir Putin enjoys significant approval. A recent Pew Research study indicated that nearly 60% of Indians hold a positive view of Putin, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.

India's Objectives from Putin's Visit

Professor Mosin Raza Khan of Jindal Global University outlines India's key objectives for the visit:

• Defense Equipment: Ensuring the continued supply of spares and new equipment for its substantial Russian-origin defense inventory (approximately 60%). This includes interest in systems like the S-400 (which performed well against Pakistan) and potentially the S-500, as well as fifth-generation (or 4.5 generation) Sukhoi Su-57 aircraft and more Krivak-class frigates.
• Energy Requirements: Beyond oil, India seeks modular small nuclear reactors from Russia.
• Labor Mobility: Facilitating greater movement of labor between the two countries.
• Balanced Trade Relationship: Addressing the significant trade deficit, where Russia exports approximately $64 billion to India, while India exports only $5 billion.

Challenges in Defense Procurement and Russia's Diminishing Capacity

Professor Khan acknowledges that India is aware of the impact of Western sanctions on Russia's ability to supply high-tech defense equipment. However, India's options are limited. Russian equipment is more affordable compared to expensive European or American alternatives. Furthermore, India wishes to prevent Russia from tilting too heavily towards China, especially given the ongoing troop deployment on the Chinese border in Ladakh. India seeks continued Russian support and spare parts, and is accustomed to Russian equipment, which, while potentially lower in technology, is within its budget.

Trade Imbalance and Western Tariffs

The substantial trade deficit with Russia is largely driven by oil imports. India's strategy of importing discounted Russian oil to maintain its defense relationship has, according to Professor Khan, "backfired," drawing negative reactions from the US and Europe. Consequently, India is reducing its oil imports from Russia and seeking to purchase more oil from the US to appease the Trump administration.

The Dilemma of Balancing Relationships

The Russia-Ukraine war has created a complex dilemma for India, forcing it to balance its relationships with Russia, the United States, and Europe, while also managing its ongoing conflict with China. The punitive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with average rates around 36% and specific tariffs reaching 50% on some Indian goods, have made this balancing act increasingly difficult, leading to a widening trade deficit and a weakening rupee. India's reduction in Russian oil imports is an inevitable consequence of these pressures, but it must still "mollify Russia" to avoid jeopardizing its critical defense relationship.