Stories begin to emerge of ‘blood in the streets’ of Iran | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Iranian Protests (2022/2023): Widespread anti-government demonstrations in Iran sparked by various grievances.
• Internet Blackout: The Iranian government’s deliberate disruption of internet access to suppress protests and control information.
• Existential Threat (Regime Perspective): The Iranian government views the protests as a fundamental challenge to its survival.
• De Facto Martial Law: The implementation of restrictive measures resembling martial law without formal declaration, such as forced shop closures.
• Grassroots Uprising: Protests originating from the people, not instigated by external forces.
• Regime Narrative: The Iranian government’s portrayal of the protests as a foreign-backed plot.

The Situation in Iran: Protests, Repression, and International Response

The Human Cost of Protest

The report details the devastating human cost of the ongoing anti-government protests in Iran. Morteza Kandani recounts the tragic death of his niece, Nigin Gadini, a 25-year-old demonstrator killed by live ammunition in Tanekabon. Nigin, accompanied by her father, actively chose to continue protesting despite tear gas deployment, stating, “We don’t have anything to lose, father. We need to go forward.” She was fatally shot in the stomach and died in her father’s arms due to delays in accessing medical care caused by ongoing clashes. This exemplifies the brutal response faced by protesters and the risks they willingly take. The account highlights the desperation and courage of individuals participating in the demonstrations.

Conditions on the Ground: Reports from Within Iran

Samira Moyedin, an Iranian-Canadian journalist, shared a harrowing phone call with a friend’s daughter in Iran. The daughter described a dire situation, repeatedly stating, “things are very very bad here.” She reported streets covered in blood, forced closure of shops at 4:00 p.m. – effectively a “de facto martial law” – and the presence of drones monitoring activity. Protests in her city, Noshar, had ceased for two days due to the intense repression. This firsthand account paints a picture of widespread violence and a severe crackdown on dissent.

Economic Impact of the Internet Blackout

The Iranian government’s imposed internet blackout is not solely aimed at suppressing protests. Samira Moyedin points out that it significantly harms the Iranian economy, as many businesses rely on platforms like Telegram and WhatsApp for trade. Despite the economic consequences, the government views the protests as an “existential threat” and is willing to continue the blackout to control the narrative and present a facade of stability to the world.

Regime Response and International Reactions

State Narrative and Blame Shifting

Iranian state television broadcasts funerals for security forces allegedly killed by protesters. Iran’s Foreign Minister accuses demonstrators of initiating violence, specifically claiming they opened fire on anti-riot police to provoke intervention by President Trump and implicate Israel in a conspiracy. This narrative aims to justify the government’s actions and deflect blame for the escalating violence.

US Response and Potential Intervention

President Trump initially threatened intervention if mass executions occurred. He later stated that sources informed him killings had stopped and executions were cancelled. However, Dr. Kylie Moore Gilbert, a security studies research fellow who spent over two years imprisoned in Iran on espionage charges, expresses skepticism, stating it is “naive to believe executions in Iran won’t go ahead.” She notes that multiple Islamic Republic officials have explicitly stated their intention to execute protesters as a deterrent.

Dr. Gilbert further argues that President Trump, having encouraged the protests, may feel compelled to act. However, she cautions that military intervention could backfire, potentially strengthening regime support, intensifying the crackdown, and lending credence to the government’s claims of a foreign-backed plot. She highlights the risk of escalating the conflict and undermining the legitimacy of the “organic grassroots uprising.”

The Risk of Escalation

The report underscores the delicate balance of the situation. Any US intervention carries the risk of exacerbating the violence and strengthening the regime’s grip on power. The Iranian government’s narrative relies heavily on portraying the protests as a foreign conspiracy, and external intervention would likely reinforce this message.

The Uncertain Future and Lingering Fears

Waiting for Information and the Fear of Failure

Morteza Kandani, awaiting the restoration of internet access, expresses his deepest fear: that the regime will survive despite the sacrifices made by protesters like his niece. He states, “The most harrowing news that can come out of Iran would be that this regime stays in power because they couldn’t topple them down.” This sentiment encapsulates the profound despair and uncertainty felt by many in the Iranian diaspora.

Technical Terms Explained

• Diaspora: A scattered population living outside their original homeland.
• De Facto: In practice, but not necessarily ordained by law.
• Existential Threat: A threat to the very existence of something, in this case, the Iranian government.
• Grassroots Movement: A movement that arises from the people at a local level.

Conclusion

The report provides a stark and deeply personal account of the ongoing crisis in Iran. It highlights the courage of protesters facing brutal repression, the devastating human cost of the conflict, and the complex geopolitical considerations surrounding potential international intervention. The Iranian government’s use of internet censorship, its attempts to control the narrative, and its willingness to employ lethal force underscore the severity of the situation. The future remains uncertain, with the fate of the protesters and the stability of the regime hanging in the balance. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the nuances of the conflict and the potential consequences of any external actions.