Stock Market, Crypto & Gold Analysis for Week Ending 2/13/26

Market Analysis - February 13th, 2026

Key Concepts:

• Anchor Points: Significant price levels from past highs or lows used for identifying potential support and resistance.
• Moving Averages (5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 200-day): Indicators used to smooth price data and identify trends. Declining moving averages suggest a downtrend, while rising ones indicate an uptrend.
• Volume Profile: A chart displaying the amount of trading volume at different price levels, highlighting areas of significant supply or demand.
• Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both price and volume.
• Stage 3 Distribution Top: A technical pattern indicating the end of an uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend, characterized by sideways price action and declining volume.
• Year-to-Date (YTD) Anchor: A price level representing the highest or lowest price achieved since the beginning of the current year.
• Undercut: A temporary move below a support level, often followed by a bounce.

I. Overall Market Sentiment & Performance

The week of February 13th, 2026, was largely negative for the markets. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are down year-to-date, with financials lagging. Despite a rising 200-day moving average (suggesting a bullish environment), the S&P has been range-bound for the past two months, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown. The NASDAQ is also down 2% YTD. The speaker emphasizes caution, noting that repeated tests of support/resistance levels often lead to failure.

II. S&P 500 Analysis

The S&P remains within a defined range. A potential scenario involves an undercut of the current low, followed by a bounce. The quality of that bounce will be crucial. A weak bounce leading to a lower high could trigger a more significant decline, potentially testing anchor points from previous lows and ultimately the 200-day moving average. The speaker notes that short sellers who bet against breaks below these levels have often been “wrong” in the past, suggesting potential for short squeezes.

III. NASDAQ Composite & Sector Performance

• Dip Buyers Losing Money: The average dip buyer in the NASDAQ from the year-to-date low is currently experiencing losses.
• Volume Profile Resistance: The NASDAQ is trading below a significant volume level identified on a volume profile chart, indicating a source of supply and potential resistance.
• Semiconductors: Semiconductors made a lower low on the intermediate-term timeframe, and the 5-day moving average is rolling over, suggesting caution.
• Financials: Financial stocks are approaching a key zone where an undercut and subsequent bounce are likely. A potential head and shoulders pattern is identified, with the possibility of a right shoulder forming.
• Biotech: Biotech stocks are battling the anchor from a previous low, but a break below 121 could lead to a quick decline to 116.
• Energy: Energy names are showing strength with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows above rising moving averages.

IV. Cryptocurrency Market – Bitcoin & Ethereum

Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a significant move today, but remain down for the week. While Bitcoin initially found buyers at the VWAP from the recent low, it broke below that level and turned prior support into resistance. Despite a higher high, a higher low is needed to confirm a bullish reversal. Bitcoin is still technically in a downtrend, trading below declining 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages.

V. Individual Stock Analysis

• Apple: A recent hit to Apple stock saw zero bounce, indicating underlying weakness.
• Netflix: The stock is in a downtrend, not a dip to be bought. It failed to hold a key anchor point.
• Palantir: Down from 205 to 130, the stock lacks evidence of buyer control. The speaker references a previous decline from 45 to 8, emphasizing the importance of waiting for buyers to regain control before entering a position.
• Microsoft: Stabilizing at a trend line, but buyers are not yet in control. Trading below declining 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages.
• SanDisk & Micron: While strong growth stocks, complacency is cautioned.
• Robinhood: A significant decline from 150 to 75, illustrating that even seemingly strong companies can experience substantial losses.
• Visa: A messy weekly chart suggests a potential Stage 3 distribution top and a move below 300.

VI. Bond Market Analysis

Bonds had a strong week, breaking beyond the anchor from a recent high and resistance levels. However, the speaker suggests they may be overdone and advises against chasing the rally. A potential pullback to a prior support band around 88.80-88.50 could present a buying opportunity.

VII. Trading Strategy & Risk Management

The speaker repeatedly emphasizes the importance of risk management and capital preservation. Key takeaways include:

• Buy Strength, Not Weakness: Focus on buying stocks when buyers are regaining control, not during freefalls.
• Don't Chase Dips: Avoid buying dips in downtrends.
• Use Stop-Loss Orders: Protect capital by setting stop-loss orders below key support levels.
• Understand Volume: Pay attention to volume patterns, as volume tends to peak at turning points.
• Scenario Mapping: Consider multiple potential scenarios and prepare for different outcomes.
• "They'll Wear You Out": Holding onto losing positions for too long can be detrimental.

Quote:

“If they don't scare you out, they'll wear you out.” – Brian Shannon, referring to the dangers of holding onto losing positions.

VIII. Upcoming Event

The speaker will be hosting a Twitter Spaces discussion with George Noble on Sunday morning at 11:00 a.m.

Conclusion:

The market is exhibiting signs of weakness, with several key indicators suggesting a potential downside move. Caution is advised, and a focus on risk management and capital preservation is paramount. The speaker advocates for a patient approach, waiting for clear signs of buyer control before entering long positions. Understanding technical patterns, volume analysis, and anchor points are crucial for navigating the current market environment.