Stock Market, Crypto, Gold Analysis 10/31/25

Key Concepts

• Moving Averages: 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are used to identify trends and potential support/resistance levels.
• Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): A technical indicator that represents the average price of a security over a specific period, weighted by volume. Anchored VWAP is used to track price relative to a specific starting point (e.g., a low).
• Higher Highs and Higher Lows: A characteristic of an uptrend, indicating increasing price momentum.
• Lower Highs and Lower Lows: A characteristic of a downtrend, indicating decreasing price momentum.
• Consolidation/Digesting Gains: A period where a market or stock moves sideways after a significant upward move, allowing it to stabilize before potentially continuing higher.
• Extended Market: A market that has moved significantly higher without substantial pullbacks, suggesting potential for a short-term correction.
• Earnings Season: A period when publicly traded companies release their financial results, often leading to increased volatility in individual stock prices.
• Technical Indicators: Tools used by traders to analyze price and volume data to predict future price movements.
• Support and Resistance: Price levels where buying pressure (support) or selling pressure (resistance) is expected to be strong.
• Benefit of the Doubt to Buyers: In an uptrend, it's generally advisable to assume buyers will defend key support levels.

Market Performance and Technical Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment: The market finished the month with strong gains, with semiconductors up 11%, biotech up 12.5%, and the NASDAQ up close to 5%. However, there's a sense of the market being "stretched" and potentially needing to "digest the gain sideways." This doesn't necessarily signal a downturn but rather a healthy consolidation period.

S&P 500 Analysis:

• The S&P 500 closed near the anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for the week, encountering some supply.
• The primary focus remains on the daily timeframe, which shows a healthy pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
• A key near-term support level to watch is around 672, which represents prior resistance and a rising 20-day moving average.
• The benefit of the doubt is given to buyers due to the primary uptrend.
• A new anchored VWAP for November will be established at the start of the new month.

NASDAQ Analysis:

• The NASDAQ remains in a primary and intermediate-term uptrend on the daily timeframe.
• The market is stretched away from a prior breakout level around 612, where the 12-20 day moving average is located.
• A pullback to this level would not be considered unhealthy and is where buyers are expected to emerge.
• In the very short term, there's a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, but the path of least resistance on the daily timeframe is still considered higher.

Russell 2000 Analysis:

• The Russell 2000 has been a laggard for several months, particularly since the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates.
• This week's sell-off is attributed to the Fed removing the December rate cut from consideration, which negatively impacted prospects for these stocks.
• Despite this, the longer-term uptrend remains intact.
• A desired scenario is a pullback towards the 50-day moving average, which also coincides with the anchored VWAP from a significant low. This level has historically seen buyers emerge.
• The Russell 2000 needs time to digest and rebuild before continuing higher, but this is not seen as a negative. The market is currently treading water with a slight upward bias.

Semiconductors Analysis:

• Semiconductors have been "rock stars" in the market and continue to perform strongly.
• The group recently touched its 20-day moving average and is now extended again.
• A cautionary note is raised due to the extended nature of the rally.
• If the market consolidates sideways, the 5-day moving average will rise. A potential deeper pullback could occur if trapped below the 5-day moving average on Monday, opening the way for a test of the 350 level, where prior resistance and the 20-day moving average converge.
• The speaker emphasizes they are not bearish but are advising to "take your foot off the gas" and avoid chasing names due to the extended nature of the rally.

Earnings and Individual Stock Performance

Key Earnings Movers:

• AMD: Up strong.
• Amazon: Experienced a "huge move" with a gap up.
• Google: A "big mover big winner" on earnings.
• Microsoft: Reported earnings and is described as "getting a little bit sloppy up here" with rallies failing more quickly, suggesting a neutral stance.
• Meta: Surprising performance, failing to hold the anchored VWAP from the April low, the 200-day moving average, and the year-to-date anchored VWAP. Buyers are considered "early" and it's advised to "wait for strength after the dip." Strength after a dip in Meta would involve seeing the 5-day moving average flatten out after a significant move. Meta is expected to need time to "heal."
• eBay: Hit hard.
• CMG (Chipotle): Already in a longer-term downtrend, hit hard on earnings.

Upcoming Earnings:

• Monday after close: Palunteer, Hims and Hers.
• Tuesday morning: Uber.
• Tuesday afternoon: Shopify, AMD, Robin Hood.
• Next day: Ion, D-Wave (expected to report losses).
• Significant volatility in individual names is expected due to ongoing earnings reports.

Other Markets and Asset Classes

Cryptocurrencies:

• Ethereum: The speaker was expecting a pullback to a specific level but it didn't materialize. After an undercut of a low and a rally back up, attempts to break it down failed. The stance is now more neutral. The speaker has bids in a lower zone and wants to buy more there, but it seems unlikely in the short term. An anchored VWAP from the recent low is being monitored. The current behavior is described as being "in this range."
• Bitcoin: Neutral, hanging around the 200-day moving average and the anchored VWAP from the April low.
• Solana: Came down to the 200-day moving average again and was purchased. The speaker did not buy this time, citing that the more times a support level is tested, the more likely it is to fail.
• Overall Crypto Outlook: Neutral, needing consolidation and rebuilding.

Biotech Stocks:

• Very strong performance.
• A key level to hold is around 110.
• As long as they hold above this level and a rising 20, 50, and 200-day moving average, they remain "innocent till proven guilty."

Financial Stocks:

• Experiencing some trouble.
• Rallied to the 50-day moving average and backed away.
• Then rallied to the 20-day moving average and sold off.
• Currently below a declining 5-day moving average.
• A potential area of interest for buyers is a pullback to the anchored VWAP from the April low and the 200-day moving average. This is not a place to do business yet but could be an area for buyers to emerge and rebuild momentum.

Bonds:

• The speaker exited their bond position on Wednesday, the day before or the day of the Fed meeting.
• Bond yields are rising slightly, indicating bonds are down.
• The best bet for bonds is potentially settling down towards the 50-day moving average. The speaker is not involved in this trade.

Gold:

• The speaker is not involved in gold but outlines a desired scenario for aggressive buying.
• A key zone for potential buyers is around 351-350. This zone is significant due to:
  1. The anchored VWAP from the August low.
  2. A rising 50-day moving average.
  3. A 50% retracement of a recent low to high move.
• The current market is showing a rally on lighter volume with a declining 5-day moving average, potentially forming a "bare flag."
• The longer-term trend is intact, but the market has gotten ahead of itself and a pullback to the 351 level would be healthy.

Alpha Trends Service Promotion

• The speaker mentions a sale on their subscription service at AlphaTrends.net.
• The offer is $1,000 for the year (down from $14.99).
• The subscription includes:
  • Regular Alpha Trend subscription.
  • Advanced class (13 hours of recorded material).
  • A 30-minute one-on-one call.
  • Bi-weekly webinars for subscribers.
  • Discord access with speaker involvement.
• A link to sign up is provided in the video description.

Conclusion

The market has experienced strong gains, but is showing signs of being extended and may enter a consolidation phase. Key indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ remain in uptrends, with specific support levels to watch. The Russell 2000 is lagging but its long-term uptrend is intact. Semiconductors are strong but extended, warranting caution. Earnings season continues to drive volatility in individual stocks, with mixed performance observed. Cryptocurrencies are in a neutral phase, requiring consolidation. Biotech stocks are strong, while financials are struggling. Bonds are showing weakness, and gold presents a potential buying opportunity at specific technical levels. The speaker is promoting their Alpha Trends subscription service with a limited-time offer. The overarching message is to be aware of potential risks, avoid chasing extended rallies, and focus on well-defined technical levels.