Stock Market & Crypto Analysis November 28, 2025

Key Concepts

• Market Analysis: Examining price action, moving averages, and chart patterns to identify potential trading opportunities.
• Technical Indicators: Utilizing tools like moving averages (5-day, 20-day, 50-day) and volume to inform trading decisions.
• Chart Patterns: Recognizing and interpreting patterns such as head and shoulders, inverted head and shoulders, and trends of higher highs/higher lows or lower highs/lower lows.
• Risk Management: Emphasizing low-risk, high-probability entries and the importance of stop-loss orders.
• Scenario Mapping: Developing and adapting trading plans based on multiple potential market outcomes.
• Seasonality: Acknowledging seasonal trends but prioritizing price action.
• Market Psychology: Understanding how market participants position themselves and how this can influence price movements.
• Sector Performance: Analyzing the relative strength and weakness of different market sectors (e.g., semiconductors, biotechs, Russell 2000).
• Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis: Integrating fundamental perspectives (like interest rate expectations) with technical trading strategies.

Market Overview and S&P 500 Analysis

The S&P 500 managed to eke out a small gain of 19 basis points for the month, ending the holiday-shortened Friday, November 28th, in positive territory. In contrast, the NASDAQ experienced a slight loss for the month, primarily driven by a 3% decline in semiconductors. However, the semiconductor sector saw an 8% increase for the week, even without Nvidia's performance. Energy stocks are showing signs of strength, with positive month-to-date performance, while cryptocurrencies, despite being the worst performers month-to-date, had a strong week.

S&P 500 Chart Analysis:

• Previous Observation: The market was previously exhibiting a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The expectation was for an undercut of a key anchor level and a subsequent low before a rally.
• Current Action: This expectation was met with a strong bounce. The speaker highlights that sometimes an "obvious" head and shoulders pattern can be a trap, leading to an undercut of lows to catch uneducated sellers.
• Key Levels: The S&P 500 has moved back above the 5-day moving average, which is now rising with higher highs and higher lows. A previous level of interest that could have become resistance was broken decisively.
• Future Scenario (Bullish): A potential scenario involves further strength early next week, breaking past the recent peak. However, the market is extended at that point. A more favorable scenario would be a "failed breakout" followed by a pullback to the rising 20-day moving average, which would also be above the 50-day moving average. This would create a higher low, potentially setting up an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
• Inverted Head and Shoulders: This pattern is characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, followed by a higher high and then a higher low. The speaker emphasizes buying as strength emerges rather than waiting for the pattern to be fully complete.
• "Price Pays": The speaker dismisses concerns about volume (down on big volume, up on light volume), stating that "only price pays." The focus is on price action and the average volume from the low.
• Risk Scenario: A breakdown below a key anchor level (around 604) and failure to find buyers would signal bigger trouble.
• Seasonality: While it's a seasonally bullish time of year, seasonality itself doesn't guarantee gains. The focus remains on potential bullish and bearish scenarios.
• Trading Strategy: The recommended approach is to buy strength after a dip has flattened out and turned sideways, with a stop-loss order placed below the low. This contrasts with buying the dip prematurely, which can lead to losses if the downtrend continues.
• Scenario Mapping: The core methodology is "scenario mapping," where potential market outcomes are identified and the trader positions themselves to participate in the most likely scenario for their timeframe.

NASDAQ Analysis

Similar to the S&P 500, the NASDAQ was also discussed in terms of a potential head and shoulders pattern that has now broken.

• Potential Scenario: The market might be forming a shoulder, a head, and then a pullback to create a higher low before continuing to break the neckline.
• Extension: The NASDAQ is considered a bit extended short-term (from 580 to 620).
• Current Evidence: The evidence suggests buyers are in control.
• Swing Trade Opportunity: A pullback would create the next swing trade opportunity to the upside.
• Key Anchor: A pullback towards the anchor from the low (around 604) is a level to watch. Breaking and holding below this anchor would be a negative sign.

Sector Performance and Analysis

Russell 2000

• Outperformance: The Russell 2000 significantly outperformed this week, up 5.5%, with the NASDAQ up 5% and the SMH up 4%.
• Reasoning: Rumors of potential interest rate cuts due to a more dovish Fed appointee are driving this outperformance, as lower interest rates are generally beneficial for mid-cap and small-cap stocks.
• Market Anticipation: The market is anticipating future rate cuts. The speaker notes that markets often discount future events, and once the event occurs and is widely known, the buying pressure may subside.
• Chart Analysis: The Russell 2000 had a strong run from 228 to 448 (close to 10%). While it can continue to rally, it's also normal for it to pull back.
• Key Levels for Pullback: A pullback would ideally hold the 20-day moving average or the anchor from the low, which might coincide with the 20-day moving average.
• Low-Risk Entry: A pullback to these levels would present a low-risk, high-probability entry, with a stop-loss below the higher low. The overall backdrop is positive with rising 20 and 50-day moving averages.

Semiconductors (SMH)

• Pattern Break: The semiconductor sector has broken its pattern of lower highs.
• Desired Scenario: A pullback next week to carve out a higher low, potentially near the 50-day moving average or the anchor off the low (around 335), would be ideal.
• Nvidia: Nvidia is highlighted as the "dog of the semis" due to its performance following its earnings report. Buyers are absent, and the stock is showing lower highs and lower lows with a declining 5-day moving average, making it not a good time to buy. The speaker would prefer to buy at 184.5 with buyers in control rather than guessing a low at 177.

Biotechs

• Leadership: Biotechs have been strong leaders, up 6% this week and 9% this month, with a 37% year-to-date gain.
• Narrative Shift: The narrative has shifted from concerns about FDA approvals to the potential of AI in drug discovery and speeding up scientific processes.
• Chart Pattern: The biotech index continues to show higher highs and higher lows.
• Potential Resistance: The index is approaching a level where prior support was broken, which could act as resistance due to "price memory." Many who bought at higher levels may look to exit at break-even.
• Outlook: While the biotech sector might see some underperformance going into the year-end, it could also continue to rally.
• Strategy: The advice is to have a plan, raise stop-losses to lock in gains, and be aware of potential supply at this resistance zone. A normal pullback could set up for further moves.

Bitcoin

• Current State: Bitcoin is described as "broken" but is experiencing a bounce.
• Extension: The recent rally from 80 to 92 (approximately 15%) has brought it into an anchor level where supply is being found.
• Desired Scenario: A pullback to an anchor off a previous low over the weekend, and if that level holds, it could present a low-risk buying opportunity for bounce continuation. A shakeout below a VWAP is not necessarily a concern, as VWAPs are not exact support or resistance levels.
• Risk: Buying the dip without confirmation of a higher low could lead to further losses if the price makes a lower low.
• Tom Lee's Prediction: The speaker mentions Tom Lee's prediction of a final flush down to 2500 before a rally to 5000, but emphasizes listening to price action.
• Potential Entry: A pullback towards 2900 over the weekend and subsequent bounce could be a decent buying opportunity with a stop-loss underneath.

Solana (SOL)

• Attempting to Find Buyers: Solana is trying to find buyers at an anchor level from late 2023.
• Zone of Interest: This level is considered a zone or area rather than a precise point.
• Pattern Interpretation: The speaker suggests that a pullback could form a shoulder in a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern, emphasizing that these patterns represent a simple trend change.
• Crypto Outlook: Further pullbacks in cryptocurrencies down to anchors off previous lows could present opportunities.

Subscription Service Mention

The speaker mentions his subscription service on X (formerly Twitter) for $10 a month, offering twice-daily analysis. He states there is no Black Friday deal, as it's a year-round offer. He uses Upwork as an example of a stock he recommended at a good entry point.

Conclusion

The market is in a dynamic state, with various sectors showing different trends and potential scenarios. The speaker advocates for a disciplined approach to trading, focusing on low-risk, high-probability entries, scenario mapping, and adapting plans based on price action. While acknowledging seasonal trends and fundamental factors, the primary emphasis remains on technical analysis and understanding market psychology to navigate potential opportunities and risks. The key takeaway is to "enjoy the rally while we're here," protect gains, and be prepared for the next potential trading setup.