Stock Market & Crypto Analysis 11/21/25

Key Concepts

• Moving Averages: 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are used to identify trends and potential support/resistance levels.
• Anchors: Significant price levels from past highs or lows that can act as support or resistance.
• Head and Shoulders Pattern: A bearish reversal pattern indicating a potential trend change from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows.
• Risk Management: Crucial for trading, involving defined entry and exit strategies, stop-loss orders, and avoiding excessive losses.
• Seasonality: The tendency for certain months (like November) to historically be stronger for the market.
• VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): A trading benchmark used to gauge average price based on volume.
• Downtrend: Characterized by lower highs and lower lows.
• Uptrend: Characterized by higher highs and higher lows.
• Bear Trap: A situation where a market or stock appears to be declining but then reverses sharply upwards, trapping short sellers.

Market Overview and Performance

The market experienced a "brutal week" ending November 21st, 2025, with most sectors declining significantly. The notable exception was the biotech sector, which was up 7%. In contrast, semiconductors and crypto were hit hard.

• Crypto Performance:
  • Ethereum was down 30% for the month.
  • Bitcoin was down 23% for the month.
  • Both are "firmly in the red for the year."

Technical Analysis and Charting Tools

The discussion utilizes charting platforms like TradingView and TC2000, with a custom script to visualize the relationship between price and the 5-day moving average.

• 5-Day Moving Average Indicator:
  • Represented by an orange line.
  • When price is below a declining 5-day moving average, it signals weakness.
  • When price moves above the declining 5-day moving average, the indicator turns yellow, suggesting a potential upward turn, but not a buy signal.
  • The indicator is applied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ, semiconductors, and Russell 2000.

Market Analysis: S&P 500 and NASDAQ

Both the S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ showed rejections at key resistance levels.

• S&P 500 (SPY):

  • Rejected at the "anchor from the all-time high."
  • Below the declining 20-day moving average.
  • Below the 50-day moving average, which is flattening due to the averaging of recent data. A continued rally is needed for the 50-day moving average to start declining.
  • A potential scenario involves rallying towards the 50-day moving average, getting rejected, and completing a "head and shoulders pattern."
  • Thursday's trading was an "inside day" after a large range day, with a slightly lower low but reduced volatility.
  • The speaker expresses caution about strength due to declining 20 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a shift from buying strength to looking for potential rollovers.
  • November, historically a strong month, has not performed as expected.

• NASDAQ:

  • Similar rejection at the anchor from the all-time high and the declining 20-day moving average.
  • Undercutting a prior low and reaching the "next anchor, which is from the June low."
  • Potential for a "head and shoulders pattern" is present.
  • Head and Shoulders Pattern Explanation: This pattern signifies a trend reversal from higher highs/higher lows to lower highs/lower lows. On a weekly timeframe, a shoulder forms a lower high, and breaking the neckline confirms the pattern.
  • The 200-day moving average is still rising, suggesting caution against extreme bearishness.
  • A pullback to the anchor from the April low or the 200-day moving average is considered possible and not necessarily negative.
  • Amazon Example: Amazon has given up all gains from its earnings report and is approaching its 200-day moving average, April low anchor, and year-to-date anchor. While this may offer support, a breakdown could lead to further declines, similar to Netflix.
  • The weekly chart for Amazon shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating an unhealthy trend.

Risk Management and Trading Strategies

The importance of risk management is emphasized throughout the discussion.

• "Chase the Gap" or "Wait for VWAP" Strategy: A strategy discussed for trading the SPY on Thursday. The speaker purchased as the price got back above VWAP after undercutting the morning low.
• Risk Management Principle: "Taking this size of a loss is much better than taking this size of a loss if you held it down through the close yesterday." This highlights the benefit of cutting losses early.
• Buying Dips: The speaker advises caution when buying dips, especially in the current market environment. If a dip buy doesn't hold, it's crucial to exit rather than justify holding.
• Low-Risk Entry: When attempting to buy dips, it should be done in a low-risk manner with defined stop-loss levels.

Specific Asset Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin:

  • Fallen through all supposed support levels.
  • Cut through the most recent anchor from the last happening.
  • Next level of interest is the anchor from 2023, around $75,000-$76,000.
  • The speaker treats crypto differently than equities, attempting to buy oversold dips, but exited quickly when these trades failed recently. Discipline and lack of ego are crucial for bottom-picking.

• Ethereum:

  • Could potentially come down to the anchor from the all-time high, near $2,300.

• Solana:

  • If current support fails, it might test the anchor from inception on Coinbase, near $100.

• XRP (Ripple):

  • Potential for further decline.

Equities

• Russell 2000:

  • A 3% rally on Friday is not seen as significant by the speaker, as it reached prior support.
  • Below a declining 20-day and 50-day moving average.
  • The 50-day moving average's slope is expected to continue lower next week.
  • The Russell 2000, expected to be a leader, has been the worst performer.

• Semiconductors:

  • The semiconductor index shows a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows since its peak, indicating an intermediate-term downtrend.
  • Below declining 5-day, 20-day, and soon-to-be 50-day moving averages.
  • The advice is to "lay off the gas" and not rush into semiconductors despite their year-to-date gains.
  • A deeper pullback to the 20-week or 100-day moving average is possible.
  • The speaker criticizes the approach of drawing anchors everywhere, emphasizing that anchors are potential levels where buyers might emerge, and evidence of a turn is needed, not just a bet.
  • Buyers of dips in this sector have been "slaughtered," especially those using leverage.

• Nvidia:

  • Exhibits lower highs and lower lows in the intermediate term, indicating a downtrend.
  • Near-term is more neutral, but neutrality doesn't warrant buying.
  • The gap up after earnings was not sustained.
  • A valid strategy is to "chase the gap" or "wait for VWAP" with a defined stop-loss below the low.
  • Potential support levels include the anchor from the handoff and the level hit on Thursday.
  • The speaker cautions that even Nvidia, a profitable company, is not immune to declines, and large holders have been selling. Fighting the trend in declining stocks is not advised.

• Tesla:

  • Entered a bearish move after breaking the anchor and getting trapped below prior support.
  • Sellers are in control.
  • Potential to retest the $340 zone.
  • A move back above $420 and holding there could neutralize the situation and potentially form a "bear trap."
  • Currently below declining prior support, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. The 50-day moving average is expected to decline next week, continuing to trap the stock. Extreme caution is advised.

• Biotech:

  • "Magnificent week" with a 7% gain.
  • The trend is higher.
  • Long holders are advised to "raise your stops."

Conclusion and Takeaways

The market is in a challenging phase, with broad declines across most sectors except biotech. Technical indicators like declining moving averages and rejections at key resistance levels suggest a bearish bias. The speaker strongly advocates for disciplined risk management, emphasizing the importance of defined stop-losses and avoiding large losses by cutting trades that don't work. While historical seasonality might suggest strength in November, current market action contradicts this. The analysis highlights the need to adapt trading strategies to the prevailing trend and to seek evidence of a market turn rather than blindly buying dips, especially in sectors that have experienced significant pullbacks. The potential for further downside exists, and traders are advised to be cautious and protect their capital.