Squawk Pod: Cable Cowboy John Malone & Ben Shapiro - 09/03/25 | Audio Only

Key Concepts

• Media Consolidation: The need for media companies to merge to achieve scale and efficiency.
• Streaming Transition: The shift in consumer consumption from linear TV to streaming services.
• Network Neutrality: Regulations that ensure equal access to the internet, impacting traditional cable media.
• Tariffs and Industrial Policy: Government policies related to trade and domestic manufacturing.
• Generative AI: Artificial intelligence capable of generating new content.
• Filibuster: A parliamentary procedure used in the Senate to delay or block a vote on a bill.
• Heterodox Ideas: Ideas that deviate from accepted or established doctrines.
• Centralization of Power: The increasing concentration of authority in the executive branch of government.

Market Overview and Economic Concerns

• Worst Day for S&P 500: The S&P 500 experienced its worst day in over a month, dating back to August 1st, 2025.
• Gold's All-Time High: Gold prices reached an all-time high.
• 30-Year Yield Peak: The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since July 18th, 2025.
• Steepest 10-Year 2-Year Spread: The 10-year 2-year Treasury yield spread was at its steepest level since April 22nd, 2025.
• Middle Class Struggles: A Wall Street Journal article highlighted the financial strain on the middle class.
• Recession Fears: Concerns about a potential recession are growing, influenced by a weaker job market and economic uncertainties.
• Dueling Economies: The existence of two distinct economic experiences, where wealthier consumers are not feeling significant pressure, unlike during the Great Recession.
• McDonald's CEO Observations: Chris Kamchinsky, the McDonald's CEO, noted the absence of the typical "trade-down impact," where higher-income consumers switch to more affordable options during economic downturns.
• Chicken Snack Wrap: McDonald's is bringing back the chicken snack wrap.

Google Antitrust Case

• Favorable Ruling for Google: Alphabet shares jumped as investors reacted positively to what they perceived as minimal consequences from a key antitrust case involving Google's search bar.
• Ongoing Legal Wrangling: Both Google and the Department of Justice issued statements highlighting their preferred aspects of the decision and disputing others, suggesting future legal battles. Appeals can occur after a final judgment later in 2025, potentially extending the case into 2027.
• Google's Concerns: Google expressed concerns about the imposed limits on distributing its services and the requirement to share search data with rivals, citing potential impacts on users and their privacy.
• DOJ's Disappointment: Assistant Attorney General Gail Slater indicated that the court's decision did not grant all of the requested relief, and the DOJ is considering its options.
• Court's Rulings:
  • Google must share search data with competitors.
  • The court declined to force Google to sell off its Chrome browser and Android operating system.
  • Google can continue paying third parties like Apple for distribution but cannot enter into exclusive search engine agreements.
• Impact on Apple: The court acknowledged that stopping payments from Google to Apple would be too disruptive to Apple's business.
• AI Landscape: The judge, Amit Meta, noted the rapid changes in the AI landscape and the influx of money into the industry, making him hesitant to disrupt the market artificially.
• Government Inaction: The argument that the government takes too long to act, often making their efforts irrelevant due to the market's rapid evolution.
• Gemini Potential: The possibility of Apple using Google's Gemini AI model.
• Judge's Humility: The judge acknowledged the difficulty of predicting the future of the tech industry and the limitations of a judge's expertise in this area.

China's Military Posturing and Geopolitical Tensions

• Military Parade: China held a large military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, showcasing its military and diplomatic power.
• Xi Jinping's Statement: President Xi Jinping stated that the world faces a choice between peace and war.
• International Attendees: Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attended the parade, while Western leaders mostly stayed away.
• Trump's Reaction: President Trump posted on Truth Social, hoping Xi honored American sacrifices in World War II and sarcastically sending regards to Putin and Kim Jong-un.
• Concerns about China and Putin: Concerns about China's ambitions regarding Taiwan and Putin's actions in Ukraine.

John Malone Interview: Media Landscape and Future

• Book: Born to Be Wired: John Malone's new memoir about the rise and decline of cable television, the revolution of personal technology, and his experiences in the industry.
• Sequel to Cable Cowboy: The book is a follow-up to the previous book Cable Cowboy, prompted by the writer's suggestion after 25 years.
• Relationship with Ted Turner: Malone discussed his long history with Ted Turner, including launching Turner's superstation, helping him out of financial trouble, and their personal friendship.
• Relationship with Barry Diller: Malone recounted a legal dispute with Barry Diller over the breakup of IA, which led to an apology from Malone for the litigation getting out of control.
• CNN and Media Bias: Malone expressed his view that it's difficult to separate news from the inherent bias of journalists, noting that journalism schools tend to produce "reformers" with progressive views.
• Linear TV Decline: Malone acknowledged the rapid decline in viewership of the big cable bundle, putting financial pressure on linear television businesses.
• Warner Bros. Discovery Breakup: Malone admitted that he should have sold his Discovery shares before the merger with Warner, as all linear businesses face pressure from streaming.
• Comcast and Consolidation: Malone discussed the potential for Comcast to separate from its assets and the need for consolidation in the media industry to achieve scale.
• Network Neutrality and Big Tech: Malone criticized network neutrality regulations, arguing that they benefit big tech by allowing them to use internet infrastructure for free, while consumers bear the cost of increased capacity.
• Live Streaming Concerns: Malone expressed concern over the inefficient use of internet bandwidth for live streaming, particularly for sports events.
• Media Company Valuations: Malone believes the market is efficient in pricing media companies, and their future performance will determine their value.

Ben Shapiro Interview: Politics and Tariffs

• Grading Trump: Shapiro discussed whether to evaluate Trump against what would have happened without him or against an ideal conservative standard.
• Tariffs and Industrial Policy: Shapiro critiqued Trump's use of tariffs and industrial policy, such as taking stakes in companies like Intel.
• Chips Act: Shapiro viewed the government taking a 10% stake in Intel as "less bad" than the original conditions attached to the Chips Act funding.
• Nvidia and China: Shapiro raised concerns about Nvidia selling H20 chips to China, viewing it as a national security issue.
• Trump's Strategy: Shapiro argued that Trump has "heterodox ideas" and is responsive to reality, pushing limits and then adjusting.
• Social Media and Polarization: Shapiro noted that social media is worsening societal divisions and suggested that people should engage more in real-world interactions.
• Trump's Electability: Shapiro believes Trump would win an election if held today, despite negative portrayals in the media.
• Centralization of Power: Shapiro acknowledged the ongoing centralization of power in the executive branch, predating Trump's presidency.
• Trumpism: Shapiro stated that "There is no Trumpism. There is just what President Trump thinks," explaining his heterodox approach.
• Media Bias: Shapiro agreed with John Malone's assessment that no media outlet is entirely fair, citing the progressive leanings of journalists.

Conclusion

The Squawk Pod episode covers a range of topics, from market trends and antitrust rulings to geopolitical tensions and media industry dynamics. Key takeaways include the ongoing shift to streaming, the need for media consolidation, concerns about government regulation and its impact on innovation, and the complexities of evaluating political figures like Donald Trump. The interviews with John Malone and Ben Shapiro provide valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the media industry and the political landscape.