Southern Lebanon funerals: Victims of Israeli attacks laid to rest in tyre

Key Concepts

• Combat Zone Expansion: The widening of Israeli military operations beyond the Litani River to the Zahrani River.
• Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Doctrine: The institutional stance of the Lebanese military regarding Hezbollah.
• Sectarian Polarization: The risk of civil conflict stemming from the perception that the Shiite community is under existential threat.
• Disarmament Pressure: U.S. and Israeli efforts to utilize the Lebanese military to neutralize Hezbollah.

---

1. Escalation of Military Operations in Lebanon

Israel has significantly intensified its military footprint in southern Lebanon. Key developments include:

• Geographic Expansion: The "combat zone" designation has been extended from the Litani River to all territory south of the Zahrani River.
• Infrastructure Targeting: Israeli airstrikes are systematically targeting bridges and transit routes to isolate southern towns.
• Forced Displacement: New orders have been issued for civilians to evacuate these expanded combat zones.
• Casualties: Recent strikes, including an attack on Burj Shamali, have resulted in civilian deaths, including women and children, despite an existing U.S.-brokered ceasefire from April.

2. The Prospect of Military Coordination

There is ongoing speculation regarding potential coordination between the Lebanese military and Israel.

• Israeli Perspective: Reports from Haaretz suggest Israel views the Lebanese Army as incapable of disarming Hezbollah.
• Lebanese Stance: The Lebanese military maintains that current talks with Israel are strictly focused on Israeli withdrawal and do not involve security coordination against Hezbollah.
• Institutional Hurdles: Security analyst Ali Rizk argues that the Lebanese military command, led by General Rodolphe Haykal, remains a major obstacle to such coordination. He cites an incident where General Haykal refused to label Hezbollah a "terrorist group" in the Lebanese context during a meeting with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, leading to an abrupt end to the discussion.

3. Risks of U.S.-Backed Disarmament Policies

The U.S. administration, specifically referenced through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has proposed establishing a "vetted Lebanese Army unit" to disarm Hezbollah.

• Expert Critique: Ali Rizk characterizes these policies as "not very carefully considered," warning that they ignore the potential for catastrophic domestic repercussions.
• The "Disastrous Scenario": Rizk warns that forcing the Lebanese Army to confront Hezbollah would likely trigger a return to sectarian warfare similar to the conflicts of the 1970s and 1980s.
• Sectarian Sentiment: The perception among Lebanese Shiites—fueled by the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei and intense military strikes—is that their sect is under direct attack.
• Statistical Evidence: Opinion polls indicate that 88% of Lebanese Shiites oppose the disarmament of Hezbollah. Consequently, any attempt by the state military to forcibly disarm the group would be viewed as an assault on the Shiite community as a whole.

4. Synthesis and Conclusion

The situation in Lebanon is defined by a precarious tension between international pressure and domestic stability. While the U.S. and Israel seek to leverage the Lebanese military to neutralize Hezbollah, the Lebanese military leadership is acutely aware that such an action would likely shatter the country's fragile sectarian balance. The primary takeaway is that the Lebanese Army’s refusal to engage in direct confrontation with Hezbollah is a strategic choice to prevent an all-out civil war, a reality that remains at odds with the current policy objectives of the United States and Israel.