Son of Iran's late shah wants to lead Iran into a new era | DW News

Key Concepts

• Riza Pahlavi: Son of the former Shah of Iran, positioning himself as a leader of the opposition to the Islamic Republic.
• Islamic Republic: The current governing regime in Iran, facing widespread protests and calls for its collapse.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A powerful military organization in Iran, targeted for potential strikes by Pahlavi.
• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action): The Iran nuclear deal, withdrawn from by the Trump administration.
• Qassem Soleimani: Former commander of the al-Quds Force, assassinated by the US in 2020.
• Defection: The act of individuals within the Iranian security apparatus abandoning the regime.
• Prepositioning: Strategically positioning military assets in anticipation of potential conflict.

The Potential Collapse of the Iranian Regime & International Response

The transcript centers on the assertion that the Iranian regime is nearing collapse, fueled by ongoing anti-government protests and the leadership ambitions of Riza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah. Pahlavi, speaking at a press conference in Washington D.C., presented a plan for a post-Islamic Republic Iran and actively sought international support, particularly from the United States and Europe. He framed the current regime as tyrannical and responsible for “mass crimes against the Iranian people and against all of humanity,” stating its fall is “not if, but when.”

Pahlavi’s Plea for International Support & Specific Requests

Pahlavi’s appeal for support was multi-faceted. He specifically referenced former President Trump’s warning of “serious consequences” for attacks on Iranian citizens, stating the Iranian people “took his word as a man of his words.” He urged Trump to maintain this stance, contrasting it with perceived past betrayals by other administrations. Regarding Europe, particularly Germany, Pahlavi demanded they immediately designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, dismissing concerns about potential retaliation as irrelevant given the regime’s imminent collapse. He outlined “six elements” of support needed, encompassing actions to expedite the regime’s downfall and protect civilians, emphasizing that even without immediate assistance, the Iranian people would continue their fight. He stated, “Imagine how much more we can protect more innocent lives from dying by acting and helping us today.”

Reactions & Perspectives on Pahlavi’s Leadership

The press conference garnered significant international attention. Enus Paul, DW’s Washington bureau chief, noted Pahlavi’s “very self-confident” demeanor and his belief that “this is now the moment” to secure support. Despite a perceived slowdown in the protest movement, Pahlavi remained resolute. However, the Trump administration expressed caution regarding Pahlavi’s suitability as a future leader of Iran. While acknowledging he “might be a very decent, a very good guy,” Trump himself expressed uncertainty about his ability to unite the country. This hesitancy stems from a concern about his ability to unify Iran post-regime change.

Potential US Military Action & Regional Implications

The transcript also addresses increasing US military presence in the Middle East, specifically the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. While the Pentagon has not officially confirmed the deployment, reports indicate the carrier is en route from Southeast Asia, potentially towards the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. This move is linked to the Trump administration’s threats to retaliate against Iran for its crackdown on protests.

Farzan Sabed, an Iran expert at the Global Governance Center in Geneva, characterized the deployment as “a little bit of both” – a show of force and a strategic positioning for potential negotiation or intervention. He suggested the carrier could be used to support Israel in the event of Iranian retaliation or to strengthen Trump’s negotiating position. Sabed also discussed Pahlavi’s call for targeted strikes against the IRGC command structure, arguing it could disrupt the regime’s repressive apparatus and potentially encourage defections within the security forces.

Historical Precedents & Iranian Retaliation

Sabed drew parallels to previous US actions, such as the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. He noted Trump’s approach typically involves “oneoff,” symbolically significant, and materially meaningful actions. Regarding potential Iranian retaliation, Sabed highlighted a historical pattern of cautious responses, typically involving limited strikes against US bases with minimal casualties. However, he cautioned that a desperate regime facing collapse might undertake more dangerous actions. He noted that Iranian civil society, including Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi, have increasingly called for international intervention.

Data & Statistics

• No specific numerical data or statistics were provided in the transcript beyond the mention of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. However, the entire discussion is framed around the context of weeks of ongoing anti-government protests in Iran.

Logical Connections

The transcript establishes a clear connection between the internal unrest in Iran, Pahlavi’s efforts to position himself as a leader of the opposition, and the potential for international intervention, particularly by the United States. The discussion flows from Pahlavi’s demands for support to assessments of his leadership, potential US military responses, and historical precedents for Iranian retaliation. The expert analysis provides context and nuance to the unfolding situation.

Conclusion

The transcript paints a picture of a volatile situation in Iran, with the regime facing mounting pressure from internal protests and external calls for its collapse. Riza Pahlavi is actively seeking international support, but his leadership is viewed with caution by some, including the Trump administration. The increasing US military presence in the Middle East signals a heightened risk of escalation, while the potential for Iranian retaliation remains a significant concern. The situation is framed as a critical juncture with potentially far-reaching consequences not only for Iran but for the entire world. The core takeaway is that the collapse of the Islamic Republic is considered increasingly likely, and the international community is grappling with how to respond.