SM Lee Hsien Loong on choosing sides between the US and China

Key Concepts

• International Legal Order: The existing system of international laws, treaties, and norms governing relations between states.
• Sovereignty: The supreme authority of a state to govern itself without external interference.
• ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a regional intergovernmental organization.
• SCF (Singapore Armed Forces): The military forces of Singapore, built for credible defense.
• WTO: World Trade Organization, an intergovernmental organization regulating international trade.
• “Poison Pill” Provisions: Clauses in trade agreements allowing a party to terminate the agreement if the other party engages with a designated adversarial nation.
• Agency (of Small States): The capacity of small states to exert influence on their own fate, even if they cannot determine global outcomes.

Maintaining Security and Sovereignty in a Shifting Global Order

The discussion centers on the challenges faced by small states, particularly Singapore, in navigating a world where the international legal order is increasingly at risk due to unilateral actions and rising geopolitical tensions, primarily between the US and China. The speaker addresses concerns about preserving sovereignty and mitigating risks in this evolving landscape.

Threats to the International Order & Defense Strategies

The speaker acknowledges the current vulnerability of the international legal order, citing “alarming developments” since January 3rd and “threats going around targeting different territories.” He frames the global power dynamic as largely consisting of two (or three, including Russia) major powers, leaving smaller nations susceptible to their influence.

To safeguard against these risks, three primary defense strategies are outlined:

1. Economic Strength: A robust economy is foundational. “If you’re broke and poor…you can’t do anything about it.” Economic stability provides the resources necessary for self-defense and diplomatic leverage.
2. Military Preparedness: Singapore has consistently invested approximately 3% of its GDP in defense, building a “credible SCF” (Singapore Armed Forces). This investment isn’t intended for aggression, but for self-preservation.
3. Regional & Global Partnerships: Cultivating strong relationships with regional neighbors (ASEAN, India, China, EU) and participating in multilateral forums (APEC, RC, UN, climate change conferences, WTO discussions) is crucial. This creates a “network of countries which want to trade with one another” and prevents a descent into a “law of the jungle.” Small states, while not dictating outcomes, possess “agency” and can influence their own fate through collective action.

Navigating US-China Relations & Avoiding Forced Alignment

The speaker addresses the question of whether Southeast Asian nations are being compelled to choose sides between the US and China. He notes that surveys, including the Institute’s “State of Southeast Asia” report, consistently demonstrate a preference for neutrality – ASEAN does not want to choose.

Despite China’s recent strong statements supporting the international rules-based order following January 3rd, the speaker cautions against assuming this necessitates a choice. He acknowledges the inherent desire of both the US and China to secure allies, but emphasizes the importance of resisting pressure to align exclusively with one side.

He highlights a concerning trend: the inclusion of “poison pill” provisions in US trade agreements. These clauses allow the US to terminate agreements if a partner country engages with nations deemed problematic, effectively forcing a choice. The speaker advocates for resisting this pressure and maintaining links with all parties to retain negotiating leverage.

Economic Interdependence & Regional Realities

The speaker underscores the significant economic interdependence between many countries in the Asia-Pacific region – including US allies like Japan, Korea, and Australia – and China. He cites examples like South Korea’s efforts to mend relations with China after a period of strain caused by the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system, and the continued trade relationships between Australia and Japan with China despite existing tensions.

He argues that a completely “lopsided world” with one isolated power and all other nations aligned against it is “not incredible,” suggesting a more nuanced and multipolar future is likely. He points out that even countries with close ties to the US maintain substantial economic interests in China, making a complete break unlikely.

Principles vs. Pragmatism in Foreign Policy

The speaker clarifies the government’s approach to international conflicts. While acknowledging the importance of standing up for principles, he emphasizes a pragmatic assessment of national interests. He uses the example of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, noting that Singapore issued strong statements and imposed targeted sanctions, but maintained ongoing relations and business ties with Russia.

He states, “If there’s a fight between two other countries, we have to ask ourselves what’s in it for us. Is there a principle at stake?” He differentiates between disapproving of a country’s actions and becoming its enemy, advocating for continued engagement even in cases of disagreement.

Notable Quote:

“If you’re broke and poor…you can’t do anything about it.” – Emphasizing the foundational importance of economic strength for national security.

Conclusion:

The speaker advocates for a multi-faceted approach to safeguarding sovereignty in a turbulent world. This involves prioritizing economic strength, maintaining a credible defense, fostering regional and global partnerships, and resisting pressure to align exclusively with any single major power. The core message is that small states can exert influence and protect their interests through strategic engagement, economic resilience, and a commitment to multilateralism, even amidst growing geopolitical competition.