Singaporean expert on Japan-China spatーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts

• Taiwan Contingency: A potential military conflict involving Taiwan, viewed by Japan as a potential existential crisis.
• Bilateral Ties (Japan-Singapore): The historically complex, yet currently strong, relationship between Japan and Singapore, overcoming past wartime occupation.
• Newton’s Third Law (Applied to Geopolitics): The principle that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction, used to explain reactions to China’s assertive behavior.
• Rule-Based International Order: The concept of a world governed by agreed-upon rules and laws, currently being challenged by major powers.
• Transboundary Dynamic System: A geopolitical model describing the evolving formation of coalitions based on shared interests, rather than fixed alliances.
• US Military Presence: Considered crucial by Singapore for maintaining regional balance and stability.

Japan-China Friction: A Singaporean Perspective

Introduction

Following Japanese Prime Minister Takai’s statement in November regarding a potential Taiwan contingency being an “existential crisis” for Japan – a remark that drew strong criticism from Beijing – this report details Singapore’s perspective on the escalating Japan-China friction. The analysis is based on an interview with Bilahari Kausikan, former Permanent Secretary of Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and contextualized by a review of Japan-Singapore relations.

Historical Context & Current Japan-Singapore Relations

Despite a difficult history marked by Japan’s occupation of Singapore during World War II (1942-1945), relations have significantly improved over time. While acknowledging lingering historical sensitivities, particularly given Singapore’s majority ethnic Chinese population (over 70%), surveys consistently demonstrate that Japan is the “number one trusted great power” in Southeast Asia. Recent support from Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong for a larger Japanese role in regional security, including on the security front, has sparked some controversy but reflects a broader Southeast Asian view that Japan’s increased involvement contributes to regional stability. Kausikan notes that generational shifts have diminished the weight of past grievances, with both countries prioritizing forward momentum. He states, “with the passage of time with the passing of generations the feelings are not the same and we have put the history aside and we're moving forward.”

Japan’s Taiwan Statement: A Test of Resolve

Kausikan views Prime Minister Takai’s comments on Taiwan not as a novel position, but as a reiteration of long-standing Japanese policy. He suggests that Beijing deliberately “decided that they wanted to make a fuss possibly to test a new Japanese prime minister” – the first female Japanese prime minister – and assess her resolve. He also frames this as part of a pattern of testing new Singaporean leadership, specifically Prime Minister Wong, to gauge their resistance to Chinese pressure. Kausikan emphasizes that Wong’s subsequent statements supporting Japan’s regional role were consistent with established Singaporean policy, stating Wong “said we should look forward in relations not backwards.”

China’s Growing Influence & Regional Reactions

Singapore recognizes China’s increasing influence in the region but cautions against aggressive behavior. Kausikan invokes Newton’s Third Law of Motion – “For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction” – to explain the predictable response to China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea, around Taiwan, and in the East China Sea. He highlights Singapore’s consistent public stance that the United States’ presence is essential for maintaining regional balance and stability, which he frames as foundational for the region’s economic growth and prosperity.

He recounts a 1990 offer by Singapore to allow the US to use its facilities after being forced to leave the Philippines (Subic Bay and Clark Airfield), despite the facilities being significantly smaller. While initially met with strong opposition from Malaysia and Indonesia, a similar agreement renewal in 2019 faced no regional protest, which Kausikan attributes not to Singaporean diplomacy, but to a “great failure of Chinese diplomacy.” He argues that countries now recognize the necessity of maintaining strong relations with both China and the United States.

The Rule-Based International Order: A Pragmatic View

Kausikan offers a pragmatic assessment of the “rule-based international order,” questioning its universality and objectivity. He asks, “What does the rulebased order mean? Whose rules? Whose interpretation of the rules?” He asserts that international law and rules are ultimately instruments of foreign policy, and countries will prioritize their own interests when deciding which rules to follow and how to interpret them. He acknowledges the preference for a rule-governed world but emphasizes that this is not always the reality. He states, “International law and rules are not autonomous realities. They are instruments of foreign policy and countries will choose which rules to obey in accordance with their interests.”

Evolving Geopolitical Dynamics & Future Outlook

Kausikan concludes by emphasizing the increasing importance of “flexibility and fluidity” in international relations. He describes a “transboundary dynamic system” where coalitions will form based on specific, shared interests, rather than rigid alliances. This evolving landscape will significantly impact Japan-China relations, requiring adaptability and a nuanced understanding of shifting geopolitical dynamics. He believes that this system is currently evolving and will continue to shape the region’s future.