Singapore’s November output up 14.3% on-year in third straight month of expansion

Key Concepts

• Factory Output: The total value of goods produced by manufacturing establishments.
• Biomedical Cluster: A sector encompassing pharmaceutical and medical technology manufacturing.
• Transport Engineering: Manufacturing related to vehicles, aerospace, and marine industries.
• Electronics Cluster: Manufacturing of electronic components, infocomm technology, and consumer electronics.
• Frontloading: Accelerating production or imports in anticipation of future tariffs or restrictions.
• Value-Added: The economic value created by a manufacturing process.
• Tariff Distortion: The impact of potential or actual tariffs on production and trade patterns.
• Economic Volatility: The degree of fluctuation in economic activity.

Singapore Manufacturing Sector – November 2025 Performance & Outlook

Overall Performance & Sectoral Breakdown

Singapore’s manufacturing sector continued its expansion into a third consecutive month in November 2025, although the growth rate moderated. Overall factory output increased by 14.3% year-on-year, a deceleration from the nearly 30% surge observed in October. This figure was marginally below the 15% increase predicted by analysts. While all sectors experienced output growth, general manufacturing saw a decline of 4.8%.

The biomedical cluster demonstrated the most significant expansion, with a 79.3% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by pharmaceutical production, specifically a rise in active ingredient output. Transport engineering also performed strongly, expanding by 24.2%, with the aerospace segment contributing significantly – a 33.8% climb attributed to increased aircraft parts output and continued maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) work for commercial airlines. Electronics also showed growth at 8.9%, led by infocomm and consumer electronics.

Biomedical Sector & Tariff Anticipation

Independent economist Song Singh highlighted the critical role of the biomedical and semiconductor sectors in Singapore’s manufacturing performance, stating these two sectors “either contribute significantly to any monthly performance or a big drag.” The substantial increase in biomedical output in November was attributed, in part, to anticipated tariffs from the United States. Singh suggested that companies engaged in “frontloading” – accelerating production to pre-empt potential trade restrictions – particularly in the pharmaceutical sector. He noted that pharmaceutical output over the preceding three months was “easily four times the average of the past 12 months.” This frontloading effect was also observed, though to a lesser extent, in the chip sector.

Distortion Effects & Future Outlook

The discussion acknowledged that the biomedical sector wasn’t the only one affected by potential tariff-related distortions. Removing this distortion, assessing the underlying health of the manufacturing sector remains challenging. Singh emphasized the unpredictable nature of US trade policy, citing announcements of tariffs throughout the year, followed by shifts and pauses. He stated, “We’ve got flip-flop in US trade policy front.”

The outlook for 2026 is contingent on several factors: the continued growth of the US economy, driven by resilient employment and investment; and the ability of the rest of the world to navigate geopolitical tensions, new markets, and the potential for a technology bubble burst, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Singh described the situation as requiring a “winning a way through on a almost monthly or quarterly basis.”

Growth Drivers & Lagging Sectors

The expert anticipates that growth will be primarily led by high-value clusters, specifically electronics linked to AI demand and the ongoing pharmaceutical production runs. Conversely, segments exposed to weaker consumer cycles or inventory adjustments are expected to lag behind. Singh stated, “I expect segments exposed to weaker consumer cycles or inventory adjustments that could be happening will lag behind.”

Technical Definitions

• Active Ingredients: The component in a pharmaceutical drug that produces its effects.
• MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul): The inspection, repair, servicing, and replacement of components of aircraft and other equipment.
• Infocomm: A portmanteau of information and communication, referring to the technology sector encompassing IT and telecommunications.

Logical Connections

The discussion progresses from a broad overview of manufacturing output to a detailed analysis of the biomedical sector’s performance. The connection between potential US tariffs and the observed frontloading of production is clearly established. The conversation then broadens to consider the wider economic context and the uncertainties surrounding the global outlook, linking these factors to the future performance of Singapore’s manufacturing sector.

Data & Statistics

• Overall Factory Output Growth (November 2025): 14.3% year-on-year.
• October 2025 Factory Output Growth: Approximately 30% year-on-year.
• Biomedical Cluster Growth (November 2025): 79.3% year-on-year.
• Transport Engineering Growth (November 2025): 24.2% year-on-year.
• Aerospace Segment Growth (November 2025): 33.8% year-on-year.
• Electronics Cluster Growth (November 2025): 8.9% year-on-year.
• Pharmaceutical Output (Last 3 Months to November 2025): Four times the average of the past 12 months.
• General Manufacturing Decline (November 2025): 4.8%

Conclusion

Singapore’s manufacturing sector demonstrated continued expansion in November 2025, but at a slower pace than the previous month. The biomedical cluster, driven by pharmaceutical production and potentially influenced by anticipation of US tariffs, was the primary driver of growth. The outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, contingent on global economic conditions and the evolving landscape of US trade policy. High-value clusters, particularly those linked to AI and pharmaceuticals, are expected to lead growth, while sectors sensitive to consumer cycles may lag. A cautious and adaptable approach will be necessary to navigate the ongoing economic volatility.