SILVER Vanishing as Premiums Skyrocket - 'People are Demanding Physical': Ian Everard

Key Concepts: Commodity Culture, Sound Money Principles, Geopolitics, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver), Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin), AI Bubble, Capital Rotation, Eurodollar Market, LBMA (London Bullion Market Association), Exchange for Physical (EFP), Wholesale Premiums, Critical Minerals List, Byproduct Metals, Fiat System, Currency Debasement, Inflationary System, Manipulation (Precious Metals), RICO Act, Junior Miners, Rhenium, Arc Silver Gold Osmium (ASGO).

Introduction

The episode of Commodity Culture, hosted by Jesse Day on November 24, 2025, features Ian Everard, owner of Arc Silver Gold Osmium and a precious metals analyst. Everard provides "breaking inside news" from his perspective as a bullion dealer, highlighting increasing difficulty in acquiring silver products and rising wholesale premiums, which he attributes to structural tightness in the physical market. The discussion also covers LBMA silver inventories, silver's addition to the US critical minerals list, and ongoing manipulation in precious metals markets.

Cryptocurrency Crash and Precious Metals Resilience

The conversation begins with the recent cryptocurrency market selloff, where Bitcoin plunged from a high of $125,000 to around $86,000. Other altcoins experienced even steeper declines. In contrast, gold and silver have shown resilience, with $50 silver and $4,000 gold appearing to be new floor prices.

Ian Everard, while previously dismissive of Bitcoin, notes several observations:

• Historical Patterns: Bitcoin historically takes approximately 1.5 years to go from bottom to top and about one year from top to bottom.
• Technical Indicators: A recent drop below the 50-week moving average (around $103,000) historically signals a one-year downtrend.
• Warning Signs: Promotion by entities like Liberty Finance and the Trump family, Harvard University's $300 million Bitcoin purchase, and the US government's ownership of 198,000 Bitcoin (which has reportedly dropped 30% since acquisition) are seen as red flags.
• IPO Analogy: Crypto's trajectory resembles an IPO surge, where early investors cash out after significant gains (10x or 100x), indicating a lack of confidence in long-term stability. Large transactions, including one single holder moving $9 billion, support this.
• Bitcoin vs. Gold Ratio: Bitcoin has peaked against gold, dropping from 37 ounces of gold per Bitcoin to approximately 21 ounces.
• Risk-Off Behavior: The crash suggests an "early panic" among high-net-worth, savvy investors who are pulling out of volatile assets for more stable alternatives.
• Market Tracking: Bitcoin has tracked the NASDAQ and S&P more closely than gold and silver, reinforcing its status as a risk-on asset rather than "digital gold."

The AI Bubble and Broad Market Overvaluation

The discussion shifts to the AI craze, questioning if it constitutes a bubble.

• Nvidia's Valuation: Nvidia, a key player in AI, has a market valuation exceeding Germany's GDP, which is considered "crazy." Its valuation fluctuated by a trillion dollars in a week.
• Inventory and Debt Concerns: Nvidia's rising inventory and increasing amounts owed suggest potential oversupply or payment issues, contradicting the narrative of insatiable demand. Circular investments where Nvidia invests in companies that buy its products further complicate its financial picture.
• Sam Altman's Comments: Sam Altman's "pre-begging" the government for a bailout in case of an AI crash is seen as a significant warning, implying that AI may not be profitable long-term despite massive investment.
• Small Investor Risk: As with previous bubbles, small investors are typically the last to enter and are left "carrying the rubbish" when the market collapses.
• Historical Valuation Warnings: Howard Marks noted that when the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) or Shiller PE ratio and overall market valuation are historically high, the subsequent 10-year returns have ranged from -2% to +2% annually, suggesting limited future growth.

Capital Rotation and Precious Metals Bull Cycle

The potential for a capital rotation from overvalued tech stocks into gold and silver is discussed.

• Eurodollar Market Size: The Eurodollar market, representing dollars created outside US control, was estimated by the Bank of International Settlements in 2023 to be $76 trillion in derivatives and other instruments, plus $13 trillion in traditional loans and bonds, totaling roughly $100 trillion.
• LBMA Silver Inventory: In stark contrast, the total value of silver held at the LBMA, the supposed deepest and most liquid silver market, is only $41 billion. This represents a factor of several thousand to one between the "dollars out in the wild" and available physical silver.
• Implication: Even a tiny fraction of the Eurodollar market attempting to buy physical silver would overwhelm the market, potentially fueling the next leg up in the gold and silver bull cycle.

LBMA Silver Inventory Stress and Physical Market Tightness

Reports indicate significant stress in LBMA silver inventories, with some sources suggesting they are "at zero, running on fumes."

• Exchange for Physical (EFP) Events: Sudden $1-$2 jumps in silver prices without other clear causes are attributed to EFP events, where participants demand physical delivery instead of cash settlement, exposing the lack of instantly deliverable silver.
• Lack of Liquidity: This suggests a severe lack of physical silver available for immediate delivery, even if it means flying bars across the Atlantic or simply changing ownership of unhypothecated metal.

Physical Silver Product Availability and Rising Premiums

Ian Everard provides an update on the physical silver market from a bullion dealer's perspective:

• "Extinction Event": There is a virtual "extinction event" for common date philharmonics, Britannias, Krugerrands, Maples, and Kangaroos, with almost none available.
• Improved Availability (Limited): 2025 American Eagles have become available again, offering a slight improvement.
• Rising Wholesale Premiums: Wholesale premiums have jumped significantly. For example, 2025 Canadian Maples saw their wholesale premium rise from $1.95 to $3.50, now only 50 cents less than 2025 Eagles.
• Historical Context: Despite the recent increases, premiums as a percentage are still historically low compared to summer 2020, when wholesale premiums on Maples were $4-$5 with silver at $25.
• Secondary Market: The secondary market offers a mixed picture, with "junkier stuff" (beat-up, tarnished, poorly packaged) being more available, which dealers like Everard often have to melt down.
• Reliance on Common Dates: The market has been heavily leaning on common/random date coins due to scarcity.
• 2026 Britannias: The wholesale premium for 2026 Britannias has surged to $3.60, historically one of the lowest-priced and highest-quality 1 oz silver coins. This is attributed to potential silver shortages in England, Royal Mint production issues, or increased domestic demand due to their tax-exempt status in the UK.

Silver as a Critical Mineral and Geopolitical Implications

The US officially adding silver to its critical minerals list, alongside uranium, is a significant development.

• Global Actions: China is implementing export controls on silver (effective new year), and Russia is stacking silver as part of its strategic reserves.
• China's Long-Term Strategy: China has been preparing for decades to win a "commodity war," employing a 3D chess strategy.
• Silver as a Byproduct: A large portion of silver is a byproduct of copper smelting. The US (e.g., Arizona) sends copper ore to China for smelting due to insufficient domestic capacity. China could potentially withhold the silver byproduct, creating a trap.
• Infrastructure Deficit: The US faces a critical problem in securing metal supplies, requiring solutions in weeks/months that would take years/decades to implement. An example is the two rail routes out of Central Africa (Congo): China is upgrading the eastern route for cheap transport, while the western route (towards the US) needs $20 billion in upgrades but has only raised $1 billion. The US government's investment in Bitcoin ($20 billion) instead of critical infrastructure is highlighted as a misallocation.
• Partisan Politics: US partisan politics hinder long-term planning, as policies are often reversed by opposing parties. China's authoritarian government, while problematic for its citizens, allows for long-term strategic planning without concern for four-year election cycles.

Manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices

The conversation addresses the ongoing debate about manipulation in precious metals markets.

• Gary Savage's View: Gary Savage believes manipulation is over, with banks losing control around $33 silver.
• Ian Everard's Counter-Argument: Ian disagrees, believing manipulation is still active but reducing. He proposes a sophisticated manipulation tactic:
  • Junior Miner Shorting: Banks could intentionally drive down silver prices (e.g., $5 drop) at a loss on physical shorts, but profit significantly by shorting junior mining stocks (10-30% drop). This causes volatility, scaring off retail investors and slowing public adoption.
  • Historical Evidence: The RICO Act prosecution of JP Morgan and leaked transcripts revealing collusion between dealers (e.g., JP Morgan and HSBC) demonstrate a history of organized manipulation.
• Price Detachment: Silver's current price is significantly detached from its industrial sustaining cost ($14-$22), and gold's price is well above mining costs ($800-$900/oz), indicating some market distortion.
• Byproduct Effect: The fact that precious metals are often byproducts of other mining operations (e.g., copper) naturally suppresses their prices, as their production continues regardless of their individual market price.

The Debt-Based Fiat System and Its Inevitable Collapse

The discussion delves into the fragility of the debt-based fiat system.

• Cracks Appearing: Crises are emerging across private credit, government debt, and real estate.
• Inflationary System's End: An inflationary system has two outcomes: stopping inflation leads to collapse, while continuing inflation leads to catastrophic collapse.
• No Sound Money Transition: There is no viable path to transition the current society to a sound money basis without revealing that most people's assets have little to no value, which would trigger widespread panic and economic collapse.
• Inflationary Imperative: The system must remain inflationary until it collapses. The Dodge-Frank Act, for instance, was never intended to cut government spending because doing so would collapse the global financial system.
• Personal Strategy: Ian Everard, understanding this in 2017, decided to invest every spare penny in silver, anticipating that physical retail product will become unavailable when the collapse occurs.
• Mainstream Media Dismissal: Despite gold reaching $4,000, mainstream media downplays its significance, often dismissing it as speculative or irrelevant. This is seen as a continuation of historical patterns (e.g., Financial Times dismissing gold at $400) and a potential government strategy to deter people from sound money.
• Currency Debasement: Gold and silver are only beginning to reflect the severe debasement of fiat currencies (e.g., the dollar having only a penny left against gold since 1970).
• Digital Currency Control: A fully digital currency system could delay the collapse by allowing greater control over velocity and the ability to ban specific purchases, but it would still be subject to inflation.
• US Debt Burden: The US spends 25% of its expenditure on interest payments, and the market knows US debt should yield 5-8% or higher, reflecting the risk of holding debasing dollars.

Rhenium Market Update

Ian Everard, one of the few bullion dealers offering physical rhenium, provides an update on this critical metal.

• Market Tightness: The rhenium market is becoming tighter.
• China's Demand: China is aggressively buying rhenium globally and is reportedly using 2.5 tons for jewelry production, attracted by its beautiful blue-gray shine, hardness, rarity (4x rarer than platinum), and lower price compared to platinum, despite a higher melting point.
• Smelting Control: China's control over copper smelting (8 of the 22 largest smelters globally) gives it significant leverage, as rhenium is a byproduct of copper and molybdenum mining. China could potentially withhold rhenium from countries that send it copper ore.
• Explosive Price Breakout Predicted: Rhenium is predicted to experience an "explosive price breakout" due to its high-value, price-insensitive uses, particularly in aviation. Forecasts include 40,000 new civilian aircraft and 13,000 military jets in the next 10-15 years. Recent events, like the grounding of older UPS cargo planes after a crash, further increase demand for new aircraft.

Arc Silver Gold Osmium (ASGO) Overview

Ian Everard's company, Arc Silver Gold Osmium, focuses on sourcing precious metals at the lowest possible prices.

• Competitive and Transparent: ASGO is highly competitive and emphasizes transparency, openly discussing wholesale premiums to show that profit margins are low (e.g., $1 on a $50 American Eagle).
• Nimble Sourcing: Being a smaller dealer, ASGO can cherry-pick deals and maintain strong relationships with wholesalers, often securing inventory before it's widely advertised.
• Current Specials: Notable current offerings include Canadian Saber-Tooth Cat 2 oz coins at a $3 premium (historically low) and various 10 oz bars (e.g., SilverTowne) for low-premium, honest silver.
• Collector Items: The company also offers collector items like Engelhard bars, some in original packaging, providing a piece of history.
• Diverse Inventory: ASGO stocks a wide range of products, including Maples, Eagles, Philharmonics, Krugerrands, Britannias, Kangaroos, and 90% junk silver (quarters, dimes, halves, dollars).

Conclusion

The conversation with Ian Everard paints a stark picture of a global financial system on the brink, characterized by an overvalued tech market, a fragile fiat currency system, and increasing geopolitical competition for critical commodities. While mainstream media downplays the significance of precious metals, the physical market for silver is showing severe tightness and rising premiums, indicating a growing disconnect between paper and physical assets. Everard argues that manipulation in precious metals continues, albeit in evolving forms, to deter public adoption. He strongly advocates for investing in physical silver as a hedge against the inevitable collapse of the inflationary fiat system, emphasizing that physical retail product will become scarce. The discussion also highlights the critical importance of rhenium, a rare metal facing tightening supply and aggressive acquisition by China, signaling future price volatility due to its essential role in high-value industries like aviation.