Silver Blows Through $85, & Here's What Goldman Had To Say...

Key Concepts

• Beta Reset (Gold & Silver): A shift in the correlation between precious metals and traditional market factors, indicating a higher sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions.
• Neocenzian Correlation Structure: Traditional relationships between assets that are currently undergoing a reset.
• January Effect (Gold): A historical seasonal trend of positive returns for gold in January.
• Measured Move: A technical analysis technique used to project potential price targets based on previous price movements.
• Uranium Squeeze: A potential supply shortage in the uranium market driving up prices.
• Capital Controls: Government restrictions on the movement of capital, potentially impacting gold ownership.
• PAX Americana: The concept of relative peace and American dominance in international affairs, now potentially waning.
• Donro Doctrine: A shift in US foreign policy prioritizing resource acquisition over nation-building.

Market Rundown & Metals with Vince Lansancy – Detailed Summary

I. Market Overview & Initial News (7:40 AM Monday)

The broadcast begins with a snapshot of market conditions: Treasury yields are up, the dollar is down, and equity markets (S&P 500 & Nasdaq) are experiencing declines. Precious metals are performing strongly: Gold is up $75 to a new all-time high ($2445.85), with 96 new highs since 2024. Silver is up $4.17, exceeding its previous all-time high, potentially heading towards $92. Copper, WTI crude oil, and natural gas are also up, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are down. Palladium and platinum show gains, and grains are up, with wheat leading the increase (1.4%).

II. Department of Justice Investigation into Fed Chair Powell

The most significant initial news item is the Department of Justice opening a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding renovations to the Fed’s headquarters and related congressional testimony. Powell claims the investigation is politically motivated and linked to monetary policy pressure. Vince Lansancy emphasizes that the fact of the investigation, regardless of its merit, undermines the perception of the rule of law globally. He states, “Whether it has merit or not doesn't matter. It was done. And that shows to the rest of the world that the rule of law is bendable.”

III. Goldman Sachs Report on Silver & Beta Reset

A core focus of the broadcast is a Goldman Sachs report mirroring their 2024 analysis of gold. In 2024, Goldman identified a “resetting higher” of gold’s beta – its sensitivity to broader market movements. This observation validated earlier analysis from Goldfix (Vince Lansancy’s platform) which noted changes in gold’s beta and the temporary suspension of traditional correlations in 2023 and 2024. The same framework is now being applied to silver, indicating a reset of the “old neocenzian correlation structure” at higher levels. This suggests that traditional assumptions about silver’s behavior are no longer valid, and monetary metals will be viewed differently. Vince states, “Structural change is now expressing itself in silver just as it previously did in gold.”

IV. Gold Seasonality – The January Effect

Deutsche Bank research highlights the historical “January effect” for gold, where January has been a strong month for gold returns. Over the past 10, 15, 20, and 25 years, approximately 70% of Januaries have closed positively. The median return in January over the past 25 years has been around +3%, making it the most reliably bullish month for gold seasonally. Vince notes that Goldfix covered this seasonality as early as 2022, identifying a buying season from November to February and a selling season from August/September to November. He cautions that while January/February offer potential gains, they aren’t easily realized.

V. Other News Items

• Uranium Squeeze: A widening structural supply deficit in the global uranium market is anticipated to intensify in 2026, driven by production constraints, geopolitical shifts, and increased demand for nuclear power. Uranium purchasing is described as “very impulsive” due to its small percentage of overall nuclear power development costs.
• Rio Tinto & Glencore Potential Merger: Rio Tinto is in early-stage discussions to acquire Glencore, potentially creating the world’s largest mining company. This signals intensifying consolidation pressures driven by demand for copper and other energy transition metals. Glencore is highlighted as a crucial player in the supply chain, facilitating the movement of metals.
• Thailand’s Gold Restrictions: Thailand is implementing new restrictions on gold trading and financial data reporting to curb currency distortions, speculative capital flows, and money laundering risks linked to a surge in gold transactions. Vince interprets this as a response to China’s gold and silver accumulation from “satellite BRICS countries,” and a move to prevent the Thai baht from weakening against gold. He warns this represents the beginning of capital controls and restrictions on gold ownership outside of government sanction.

VI. Geopolitical Analysis & Market Outlook

Vince references a Founders analysis indicating a shift away from nation-building (“PAX Americana”) towards resource acquisition (“Donro Doctrine”). He also mentions Michael Oliver’s (of Energy Report) perspective, which aligns with a cautious bullish outlook: stocks may experience a temporary rally before a potential sell-off. Hartnett (of Bank of America) is issuing sell signals but advising clients to stay long stocks, shifting towards cyclical stocks.

VII. Economic Data & Upcoming Events

Key economic data releases this week include CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday). The broadcast also lists upcoming speaker events throughout the week.

VIII. Dolly Barton Silver & Contango O Merger

The broadcast features a segment with Sean Kungan, CEO of Dolly Barton Silver, discussing their recent merger with Contango O. Kungan anticipates a “re-rating” of the company, driven by a robust drilling program planned for 2026, earnings from a joint venture with Kin Ross, and increased liquidity and market access due to the merger. He believes the combined entity will attract a broader range of investors.

IX. Actionable Trading Idea – Silver Measured Move

Vince presents a specific trading strategy for silver based on a “measured move” technical analysis. He suggests going long on silver if it breaks above the recent all-time high, with potential targets based on Fibonacci levels, Gann lines, or the size of the previous price movement. He outlines two risk management approaches: a tight stop-loss for active traders and a settlement-based stop-loss for a more conservative approach. He emphasizes the importance of having a plan for exiting the trade if it doesn’t perform as expected. He states, “When a market is in a trend and makes a new all-time high or low and you have a rejection off the high…this is a cap trade and accumulate.” He also notes a potential target of $96 based on a specific price movement calculation. He is personally implementing a short AIQ and long SILJ/SIL trade based on his bearish stock outlook.

Conclusion:

The broadcast paints a picture of a rapidly changing market landscape, particularly in precious metals. The reset of beta in both gold and silver, coupled with geopolitical shifts and potential capital controls, suggests a departure from traditional market dynamics. The emphasis on actionable trading strategies and the detailed analysis of market data provide viewers with tools to navigate this evolving environment. The overall tone is cautiously optimistic regarding precious metals, but with a strong emphasis on risk management and adapting to the new realities of the market.