Shocking Gold & Silver Turnaround Proves New Highs Are Coming (It's Not 1980 or 2011 Again)

Key Concepts

• Nominal All-Time High: The highest price a commodity or asset has reached in current dollar terms, without adjusting for inflation.
• Indexing: A method of comparing price movements of different assets or time periods by setting a base value (e.g., the high price) and measuring subsequent price changes relative to that base.
• Dead Cat Bounce: A temporary recovery in the price of a declining asset, which is then followed by a further decline.
• Bear Market: A prolonged period in which asset prices fall.
• Shorting: Selling an asset with the expectation of buying it back at a lower price to profit from the difference.
• Manipulation: The act of artificially influencing the price of an asset.
• Game Theory: A theoretical framework for understanding situations in which the outcome of a participant's choice depends on the choices of other participants.
• FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out): A feeling of anxiety that one is missing out on something exciting or rewarding.
• De-dollarization: The process of reducing reliance on the US dollar as a global reserve currency.
• Critical Minerals List: A list of minerals deemed essential for economic and national security, often subject to government support and stockpiling.
• Supply Deficit: A situation where the demand for a commodity exceeds its supply.
• Mining Stocks: Stocks of companies involved in the extraction and processing of minerals and metals.
• GDX (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index): An exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of gold mining companies.
• Counterparty Risk: The risk that the other party in a transaction will not fulfill their contractual obligations.
• Dividend Yield: The ratio of a company's annual dividend per share to its current share price.
• Health Score: A metric used to assess the financial health and risk profile of a company.

Gold and Silver Price Development: A Comparative Analysis

The video begins by addressing skepticism regarding new all-time highs for silver and gold. Silver reached its nominal all-time closing high on October 16th at $54.16 per ounce, and as of the recording, it is trading only about $1 below that. Gold, on the other hand, made its all-time high on October 20th. Despite these recent highs, some analysts predict a decade-long wait for new highs, suggesting a potential "dead cat bounce" leading to a bear market.

To counter these claims, the presenter employs indexing to directly compare the price development of gold and silver in 2025 with their performance following highs in 1980 and 2011. This methodology aims to determine if current market behavior aligns with historical topping patterns or if fundamental differences are at play.

Gold Price Indexing (2025 vs. 1980 & 2011)

• Methodology: The analysis compares the price of gold in the days following its all-time high in 1980, 2011, and 2025, relative to those highs.
• Key Findings:
  • As of November 12th (18 days after the 2025 high), gold price remains at 96% of its closing high.
  • In contrast, after the blow-off top highs in 1980 and 2011, gold experienced much stronger pullbacks, falling to 85% of its high after the same elapsed time.
  • The current price action for gold in 2025 is characterized as more of a price consolidation pattern, similar to the move after the April $3,500 surge, rather than a legitimate topping pattern with a strong pullback.

Silver Price Indexing (2025 vs. 1980 & 2011)

• Methodology: Similar indexing is applied to silver's price development after its 2025 high on October 16th.
• Key Findings:
  • Silver not only held up strongly in the days following its 2025 high but is now bouncing back, trading at 96% of its top 19 days later.
  • In 1980 and 2011, silver prices had already fallen below 80% of their respective tops 19 days after making them.
• Conclusion from Indexing: The data strongly suggests that current market fundamentals are overpowering traditional topping patterns. The presenter notes that old topping patterns have been observed multiple times since early 2024, but they are being overridden by underlying market forces.

Shorting and Manipulation Data

The video presents "shocking data" related to shorting and manipulation of gold and silver prices, which the presenter believes supports his recent arguments.

• Gold ETF Short Sale Volume (PHYS):
  • Interest in betting against gold prices (shorting) peaked at the end of October, specifically on October 20th.
  • Currently, this short interest is "almost non-existent."
• Silver ETF Short Sale Volume (PSLV):
  • Similarly, the silver ETF was heavily shorted in October.
  • However, shorting activity has significantly decreased, and the cost to short has risen due to tight supply.

This decline in short interest is presented as evidence that the market is shifting, and the cost of betting against precious metals is becoming prohibitive.

Fundamental Drivers for Precious Metals in 2025

The presenter reiterates that the fundamentals supporting precious metals in 2025 are "completely different" from those in 1980 or 2011.

• Gold:
  • Game Theory: Central banks are increasingly competing to add to their gold reserves, driven by a FOMO mentality and a reluctance to be the last to "blindly trust the US dollar."
  • De-dollarization: The ongoing global trend of reducing reliance on the US dollar.
• Silver:
  • Critical Minerals List: Silver's official addition to this list signals potential US government stockpiling over the next 5-7 years.
  • Geopolitical FOMO: This stockpiling could trigger FOMO among competing nations, potentially leading to export controls.
  • Supply Deficit: In an already supply-deficit market, these factors could make silver supply extremely tight, driving up prices for those willing to pay a premium.

The presenter concludes that the current situation is more akin to the period between 2003 and 2006 than to the historical highs of 1980 or 2011, especially when considering these fundamental factors that have yet to fully materialize.

Mining Stocks: Bullish Outlook and Viewer Question on B2 Gold

The video shifts focus to mining stocks, with the presenter expressing a bullish stance and addressing a viewer question about B2 Gold (BTO/BTG).

Long-Term Performance: Metals vs. Miners

• Observation: Physical gold and silver have significantly outperformed mining stocks over the long term.
• Data: The GDX (large miners ETF) has seen a 116% increase since its launch in 2006, while gold price has risen over 500% (excluding dividends).
• Recommendation for Retirement: For retirement planning, the presenter advises focusing on physical metals due to lower risk and no counterparty risk.

Bullish Case for Mining Stocks

Despite the long-term underperformance of miners relative to physical metals, the presenter is bullish on mining stocks for several reasons:

1. Significantly Higher Metals Prices: Expected increases in gold and silver prices will directly benefit mining companies.
2. Comparatively Lower Oil Prices: Oil is a significant cost for mining operations, so lower prices reduce expenses.
3. Falling Interest Rates: Lower interest rates make it cheaper for mining companies to service their debts.
4. Improved Investment Management: Mining companies have learned valuable lessons from the 2010-2011 bull market, which led to poor investment decisions and subsequent stock price underperformance.

Viewer Question: B2 Gold Performance

Roger Campo commented that B2 Gold, a mining stock the presenter holds, is "in the toilet." The presenter addresses this directly:

• Acknowledgement: B2 Gold has been the poorest performer among the mining stocks he started buying in July 2023, up only 45% compared to others up 50% and 59%.
• Context: The presenter acknowledges that the past couple of weeks have been volatile for mining stocks. He explains that B2 Gold's recent price decline was driven by concerns over political instability in Mali, one of its operating countries.
• Current Status:
  • Most of the negative news from Mali is already priced into the stock, despite no production disruptions.
  • The stock is slowly recovering.
  • Year-to-date (2025), B2 Gold is still up 63%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (up 14%).
  • It offers a higher dividend yield (3.88%) compared to the S&P 500 (1.1%).
• Presenter's Stance: Despite the volatility, the presenter is not selling his B2 Gold position. He sees attractive upside potential, especially as its Canadian mine comes online. He maintains a conservative 3% allocation to B2 Gold due to its inconsistent revenue and earnings delivery compared to larger holdings like Newmont and Kinross.

Guidance for Investors Impacted by Pullback

• Patience is Key: The presenter advises investors to have more patience than a short-term trader, comparing the current situation to not judging Tom Brady by his interceptions.
• Opportunity to Scale In: The recent pullback is viewed as an excellent opportunity to "scale in" for those who are late to the mining stock party.
• Anticipation of April 2026: The presenter expects a significant upward move in mining stocks around April 2026, when official interest rates are likely to turn negative again, which has historically been beneficial for metals.

Risk Assessment and Investing Pro Tool

The presenter highlights the importance of using tools like Investing Pro from Investing.com to assess risk and make informed decisions.

• Health Scores: Investing Pro provides "health scores" for companies, which can be easily checked to assess risk levels before investing. He shows examples of health scores for B2 Gold, Newmont, and Kinross, highlighting B2 Gold's lower score due to its inconsistency.
• Alternatives: For those struggling with mining stock volatility, the presenter suggests Newmont, Kinross, and the GDX ETF as better alternatives.
• Giant Mining Example: He uses the example of "Giant Mining" to illustrate how Investing Pro can help identify risks (like exploration risk, which he avoids) that might not be apparent in promotional YouTube videos.

Conclusion and Call to Action

The presenter concludes by thanking Investing Pro for sponsoring the video and strongly recommends the platform for anyone investing in mining stocks. He emphasizes its ability to make opportunities and risks clearly visible. He encourages viewers to click his link in the description for a discount and to support future sponsored content. He asks for feedback on the video format and signs off with well wishes.