Shangri-La Dialogue: Vietnam's To Lam warns of three global crises in keynote speech

Key Concepts

• Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD): Asia’s premier defense summit held in Singapore, serving as a platform for security exchange and policy discussion.
• ASEAN Centrality: The principle that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations should remain the primary driving force in regional architecture and diplomacy.
• Strategic Autonomy: A nation's ability to make independent foreign policy decisions while navigating the rivalry between major powers (e.g., US and China).
• Three Foundational Crises: The framework presented by President To Lam regarding the current global state: Crisis of International Order, Crisis of Development Models, and Crisis of Strategic Trust.
• Preventive Diplomacy: The practice of using diplomatic channels and communication mechanisms to mitigate risks and de-escalate tensions before they erupt into conflict.
• 1982 UNCLOS: The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, cited as the legal basis for resolving maritime disputes.

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1. Context and Significance of the Address

The Shangri-La Dialogue serves as a critical venue for defense ministers and officials to address global security. President To Lam’s keynote address was historic, marking the first time a Vietnamese leader holding both the positions of General Secretary of the Communist Party and President of the State has addressed the summit.

• Strategic Intent: Analysts note that To Lam is using this platform to project Vietnam as a "rising middle power" and to assert his leadership on the international stage.
• Domestic Goals: Vietnam aims to achieve high-income status by 2045 (the 100th anniversary of its founding). Foreign policy is now viewed as a vital pillar to support this economic trajectory.

2. The Three Foundational Crises

President To Lam argued that global instability stems from the convergence of three reinforcing crises:

1. Crisis of International Order: Characterized by the erosion of the rule of law, where principles are applied selectively and "might makes right" logic threatens small and medium-sized nations.
2. Crisis of Development Models: Globalization and supply chain integration are under strain due to rising public debt, climate change, and the weaponization of trade, finance, and technology.
3. Crisis of Strategic Trust: A "silent yet dangerous" crisis where states interpret actions through a lens of anxiety, causing defensive measures to be perceived as provocations.

3. Vietnam’s Foreign Policy Framework

President To Lam outlined a proactive approach to navigating these challenges, emphasizing that Vietnam is no longer just a participant but a contributor to regional stability.

• Rules-Based Order: He emphasized that international law and the UN Charter must be the foundation for coexistence, specifically regarding the "East Sea" (South China Sea), where Vietnam remains "resolute and persistent" in safeguarding its sovereignty based on 1982 UNCLOS.
• ASEAN Centrality: Vietnam advocates for an inclusive regional architecture that does not turn Southeast Asia into an arena for block confrontation. He expressed readiness to work with the Philippines (2026 ASEAN chair) to strengthen regional security.
• Human Security: To Lam argued that sustainable security cannot rely on military power alone. It must be built on economic resilience, disaster relief, health security, and food/energy security.
• Emerging Technologies: He called for responsible norms regarding AI, quantum technology, and cyberspace, insisting that human beings must retain ultimate responsibility for decisions with grave security consequences.

4. Actionable Recommendations

To address the identified crises, the President proposed six specific pillars for the Asia-Pacific:

1. Effective Risk Reduction: Transforming dialogues into operational mechanisms like early warning systems and incident management protocols.
2. Inclusive Regional Architecture: Welcoming all major power engagement provided it is transparent and respects ASEAN centrality.
3. Human-Centric Security: Prioritizing societal resilience and economic development as the foundation of national security.
4. Responsible Tech Norms: Establishing clear codes of conduct for the defense industry to prevent arms races.
5. Societal Resilience: Protecting the information space against disinformation and coordinated influence operations to maintain national cohesion.
6. Preventive Diplomacy: Creating diverse, agile channels for consultation to provide "diplomatic off-ramps" before conflicts escalate.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

President To Lam’s address signaled a shift in Vietnam’s foreign policy from passive response to "proactive shaping." By framing the current global environment as a series of converging crises, he positioned Vietnam as a responsible, middle-power mediator that prioritizes a rules-based order over block-based competition. The core takeaway is that for Vietnam, national interest is inextricably linked to regional stability; therefore, the country is committed to fostering trust, transparency, and practical cooperation to ensure that the Asia-Pacific remains a center of growth rather than a theater of confrontation.