Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Vietnamese President To Lam delivers keynote speech

Key Concepts

• ASEAN Centrality: The principle that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations should remain the primary driver of regional cooperation and security, preventing the region from becoming a theater for great-power rivalry.
• The "Four Nos" Policy: Vietnam’s long-standing defense policy: no military alliances, no siding with one country against another, no foreign military bases on Vietnamese soil, and no use of force or threat of force in international relations.
• Strategic Autonomy: The capacity of a nation to make independent foreign policy decisions without being coerced by major powers.
• Middle Power Diplomacy: The role of nations like Vietnam in leveraging economic stability and proactive diplomacy to influence regional order and mitigate great-power competition.
• Economic Security as National Security: The concept that sustainable national security is built upon economic growth, supply chain resilience, and technological advancement rather than military power alone.

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1. The Three Foundational Crises

President To Lam identified three converging crises that define the current global and Asia-Pacific landscape:

• Crisis of International Order: Characterized by the erosion of rules-based systems, selective interpretation of international law, and the "might makes right" logic where small and medium-sized nations face coercion.
• Crisis of Development Models: Globalization and supply chain integration are under strain due to protectionism, rising public debt, climate change, and the weaponization of trade, finance, and technology.
• Crisis of Strategic Trust: A "silent yet dangerous" crisis where mistrust leads to the misinterpretation of defensive measures as provocations, increasing the risk of miscalculation and conflict.

2. Vietnam’s Proactive Foreign Policy Framework

President To Lam’s keynote at the Shangri-La Dialogue marked a significant shift in Vietnam’s international posture.

• Leadership Projection: As both General Secretary of the Communist Party and President, To Lam is utilizing his dual role to project Vietnam as a rising middle power.
• Proactive Diplomacy: Moving beyond passive neutrality, Vietnam is actively hosting forums (e.g., the ASEAN Future Forum) and engaging in mediation to maintain regional stability.
• Economic Drivers: Vietnam aims to achieve high-income status by 2045. To achieve this, the government is prioritizing digital transformation, AI integration, and attracting foreign investment while diversifying partnerships to reduce reliance on traditional arms suppliers like Russia.

3. Recommendations for Regional Stability

President To Lam proposed six strategic pillars to shape a peaceful Asia-Pacific:

1. Effective Rules and Dialogue: Moving beyond rhetoric to operationalize early warning mechanisms and incident management protocols, particularly in the East Sea (South China Sea), based on the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
2. Inclusive Regional Architecture: Supporting ASEAN-led initiatives that are transparent and respect international law, ensuring the region does not become an arena for bloc confrontation.
3. Human Security and Resilience: Prioritizing societal resilience, disaster relief, and food/energy security over arms races.
4. Responsible Tech Norms: Establishing human oversight for AI and autonomous systems to prevent the misuse of technology in defense and information manipulation.
5. Societal Foundation: Protecting the information space against disinformation and influence operations to maintain national cohesion.
6. Preventive Diplomacy: Creating diverse channels for consultation to provide "diplomatic off-ramps" before tensions escalate into conflict.

4. Expert Analysis and Perspectives

• Dr. Kang Vu (Boston College): Emphasized that Vietnam’s strategy is a form of "hedging." By adhering to the "Four Nos," Vietnam avoids becoming a battlefield for great powers (as seen in the Indochina wars).
• The "Vietnam Model": Dr. Vu noted that Vietnam serves as a potential model for other ASEAN nations: maintaining internal economic growth and political stability while practicing non-alignment externally.
• Shift in Conflict Nature: Unlike the 20th-century struggles for independence and reunification, the current challenge for Vietnam is maintaining a stable regional order to protect its economic growth trajectory.

5. Notable Quotes

• President To Lam: "Development is the very foundation of enduring security."
• President To Lam: "The choice facing the Asia-Pacific today is not competition vs. no competition... The more important choice is between unchecked competition and responsible coexistence."
• President To Lam: "No country would benefit when these [seas and oceans] become theaters of coercion, confrontations or displays of power."

Synthesis

The Shangri-La Dialogue keynote by President To Lam signals Vietnam’s transition from a regional participant to a proactive architect of regional stability. By framing the current global environment as a convergence of three foundational crises, Vietnam advocates for a rules-based order that empowers middle powers to resist polarization. The core takeaway is that for Vietnam, national security is no longer just a military concern; it is inextricably linked to economic integration, technological sovereignty, and the preservation of ASEAN centrality as a buffer against great-power coercion.