Setup for really solid Thanksgiving holiday box office, says Comscore's Paul Dergarabedian

Key Concepts

• Box Office Performance: Tracking movie revenue and attendance.
• Thanksgiving Weekend: A historically significant period for movie releases and viewership.
• Year-to-Date (YTD) Domestic Box Office: Total revenue generated in the U.S. and Canada from the beginning of the year up to the current date.
• Global Box Office: Total revenue generated worldwide.
• Film Franchises/Installments: Sequels or continuations of existing movie series.
• Studio Consolidation: Mergers or acquisitions of film production companies.
• PG-Rated Films: Movies suitable for a general audience, often family-friendly.
• Event Films: Movies that generate significant buzz and draw large audiences, often due to being part of a popular franchise or having broad appeal.

Thanksgiving Box Office Performance

This year's Thanksgiving weekend is shaping up to be a strong period for moviegoing, with early numbers indicating a robust performance.

• Zootopia Two: The first film, released in 2016, grossed over $1 billion globally. On Wednesday alone, Zootopia Two earned $16.5 million domestically.
• Wicked for Good: This is the second installment of the Wicked franchise. The first film opened to $112.5 million domestically. Wicked for Good opened to $151 million domestically.
• Weekend Projection: The Thanksgiving Wednesday through Sunday period is projected to generate around $300 million domestically, according to Comscore data.

Year-to-Date Domestic Box Office

The domestic box office is currently at approximately $7.5 billion year-to-date. To reach the desired $9 billion threshold, an additional $1.5 billion is needed.

• Comparison to Last Year: For the same period last year, the industry brought in about $1.6 billion.
• Outlook: The current pace suggests that the industry will surpass last year's total of $8.77 billion.

Upcoming December Releases

December is expected to see a significant influx of new films, contributing to the year-end box office performance.

• Release Volume: A "baker's dozen" (13) films are scheduled to be released on Wednesday and Thursday of Christmas week alone.
• Notable Films:
  • Avatar 3
  • Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (releasing on Christmas Day and Christmas Eve)
  • Anaconda
  • Marty Supreme (starring Timothée Chalamet)
  • Song Sung Blue (starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson)

Warner Brothers and Studio Consolidation

The discussion touches upon the potential sale of Warner Brothers and its implications for the film industry.

• Warner Brothers' Strong Year: Warner Brothers has had a successful year with hits like Minecraft, Cineastas, Superman, and F1 The Movie.
• Concerns about Consolidation: There are concerns that if Warner Brothers is sold and consolidation occurs, it could lead to:
  • Fewer production studios.
  • Potentially fewer movies being produced.
  • A focus on bigger, but fewer, films.
  • Possible opposition to such consolidation at the box office.
• Argument for More Films: The perspective presented is that the industry needs a consistent pipeline of films and that more movies, not fewer, are desirable. The emphasis is on both the quantity and quality of films to draw audiences.

Factors Driving Box Office Success

The conversation highlights what draws audiences to theaters.

• PG-Rated Films: PG-rated films, particularly those that are family-friendly and create an "event" experience, are seen as key drivers of moviegoing.
• Examples: Wicked for Good, Zootopia Two, and Moana Two are cited as examples of films that attract families.
• Thanksgiving Record: The first Wicked film, along with other releases, powered the biggest Thanksgiving frame ever, generating $425 million.

Conclusion

The current box office is performing well, especially with the strong Thanksgiving weekend releases. While the year-to-date domestic total is on track to surpass last year, reaching the $9 billion threshold will require continued strong performance from upcoming December releases. The potential consolidation of major studios like Warner Brothers raises questions about the future of film production, with a prevailing sentiment that a robust pipeline of quality films is crucial for the industry's health. Family-friendly, PG-rated films are identified as significant draws for audiences.