Security guarantees a 'sticking point' in Ukraine peace deal • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• 28-point plan: An initial, secret peace proposal allegedly drafted without Ukrainian or European input, described as a "terms of surrender" for Ukraine.
• 19-point plan: A revised peace proposal that Ukraine and European negotiators now possess, considered nominally better than the 28-point plan.
• Security Guarantees: A critical sticking point in peace negotiations, referring to the mechanisms and commitments for Ukraine's defense against future Russian aggression.
• Maximalist Aims: Russia's stated objectives in the conflict, which include full victory, limitations on Ukraine's military, and the retention of illegally occupied territories.
• Minsk Agreements (2014): Past peace accords between Ukraine and Russia that Russia is accused of breaching.
• Budapest Memorandum (1994): An agreement where Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from Russia, which Russia later violated.

Analysis of Peace Plans and Diplomatic Prospects

This discussion critically examines the current state of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, focusing on the evolution of proposed peace plans and the significant challenges to achieving a lasting resolution.

The Flawed 28-Point Plan

The initial "28-point plan" is characterized as a document that was secretly formulated without the input of Ukraine or European nations. Its core provisions are described as essentially dictating terms of surrender for Ukraine. Key criticisms include:

• Rewarding Aggression: The plan is seen as implicitly validating Vladimir Putin's invasion by not penalizing Russia's actions.
• Economic Incentives for Russia: It reportedly paved the way for renewed investment into Russia and the restoration of financial ties.
• Undermining Ukrainian Defense: The plan would have significantly weakened Ukraine's military capabilities, effectively "amputating" its ability to defend itself against future Russian attacks.
• Territorial Concessions: It would have compelled Ukraine to cede territory, including areas that Russia does not currently control.

The Revised 19-Point Plan: A Nominal Improvement

The current "19-point plan," held by Ukrainian and European negotiators, is acknowledged as being "nominally better" than its predecessor. However, this improvement is framed within the context of the extremely low bar set by the 28-point plan, which was widely dismissed as a "total joke."

The Critical Sticking Point: Security Guarantees

The most significant obstacle to a viable peace agreement lies in the "security guarantees." The core concern is how Ukraine can defend itself if Russia were to launch another attack after a peace deal, and whether Europe would be capable of assisting in such a defense.

• Vagueness of Previous Guarantees: The first plan offered only vague assurances of a "coordinated military response" to any future Russian attack, described as "clear as mud."
• Uncertainty in the Revised Plan: Even with the revised 19-point plan, the specifics of these security guarantees remain highly unclear. Questions persist regarding:
  • Who would provide these guarantees?
  • How would the necessary resources be mobilized?
  • What would be the practical implications of these commitments?

Russia's Maximalist Stance and Low Prospects for Peace

The analysis presents a deeply pessimistic outlook on the current diplomatic efforts, largely due to Russia's unwavering "maximalist aims."

• Russian Official Statements: Deputy Russian Foreign Minister statements explicitly indicate that any peace plan not meeting Russia's maximalist objectives, or falling short of "full victory," will be unacceptable.
• Unchanged Objectives: Russia's core demands remain consistent since the February 24, 2022 invasion:
  • Ukraine must never pose a threat to Russia.
  • Ukraine's army must be limited.
  • Russia must retain illegally occupied and annexed territories.
• Historical Precedent of Breach: Past agreements with Russia, such as the Minsk Agreements (2014) and the 2008 Georgia pledges, demonstrate a pattern of Russia signing peace deals only to breach them later. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Ukraine disarmed in exchange for Russian respect for its sovereignty, is cited as a stark example of Russia's unreliability.
• "Fight to the Finish" Mentality: Current indications suggest Russia is prepared to continue the war until its original objectives are fully achieved, with no signs of compromise on its maximalist aims.

Conclusion

While diplomacy continues, the prospect of "real peace" in Ukraine appears highly unlikely as long as Russia adheres to its maximalist demands. The current peace plans, even the revised 19-point version, face significant hurdles, particularly concerning the undefined and potentially unworkable security guarantees. The historical record of Russian treaty violations further erodes confidence in any potential agreement, suggesting that Russia is more inclined towards continued conflict than genuine resolution.