Saudi-led coalition in Yemen says STC leader al-Zubaidi has fled before talks in Riyadh

Key Concepts

• Southern Transitional Council (STC): A separatist movement in southern Yemen led by Idarus al-Zubaidi, seeking independence or autonomy.
• Idarus al-Zubaidi: Leader of the STC, formerly Governor of Aden.
• Saudi-led Coalition: Military alliance primarily led by Saudi Arabia, intervening in the Yemeni Civil War in support of the internationally recognized government.
• Houthis: A Zaidi Shia Muslim group controlling much of northern Yemen.
• Riyad Talks: Negotiations hosted by Saudi Arabia aimed at resolving the Yemeni conflict.
• Aldala Governorate: Southern Yemeni governorate, hometown of al-Zubaidi, targeted by recent coalition strikes.
• Treason: The charge leveled against al-Zubaidi by the Yemeni government, potentially carrying a death sentence.

Recent Developments in Yemen: Saudi Strikes and the STC

The Saudi-led coalition recently conducted “limited preemptive strikes” in Yemen, specifically targeting locations associated with Idarus al-Zubaidi, the leader of the Southern Transitional Council (STC). These strikes focused on a camp in the Aldala Governorate, located in southern Yemen, following al-Zubaidi’s failure to attend scheduled talks in Riyadh. The coalition reports that al-Zubaidi has gone into hiding.

Detailed Account of Events

According to Hashim Albara, the Saudis invited al-Zubaidi to participate in negotiations in Riyadh, granting him a 48-hour window to comply. When he did not appear, the coalition monitored armed factions consolidating in southern Yemen, particularly around Aldala, suggesting preparations for a potential military offensive. This prompted the targeted strikes against his forces. The timing of these strikes is significant, indicating a potential shift by al-Zubaidi towards armed resistance against Saudi-backed forces and a rejection of the Saudi offer.

Following the strikes, the Yemeni government removed al-Zubaidi from the Presidential Leadership Council and initiated legal proceedings against him for treason – a charge that could result in a death sentence. The situation raises concerns about the potential for regrouping and renewed conflict, despite Saudi air superiority. Al-Zubaidi commands thousands of elite troops throughout the south.

Historical Context and Rise of the STC

The current crisis stems from a complex history. Al-Zubaidi initially gained prominence as the Governor of Aden before joining the Yemeni government. Recognizing growing separatist sentiment, he emerged as the leader of the STC, building a coalition with tribal leaders, Salafist groups, and other previously disparate factions. This alliance aimed to reinstate the independent republic that existed until 1990. By 2017, the STC had effectively taken control of much of southern Yemen, excluding al-Mahara and Hadramaut.

However, last month’s attempt by the STC to extend its control to these two provinces – bordering Saudi Arabia – triggered a Saudi intervention, resulting in the defeat of STC forces in those areas. This intervention represented a significant reversal for the STC and demonstrated Saudi Arabia’s commitment to maintaining territorial integrity along its border.

Implications for Peace Talks and Regional Dynamics

Had al-Zubaidi attended the Riyadh talks, it would have represented a major diplomatic breakthrough for Saudi Arabia, bringing the separatist leader to the negotiating table with other Yemeni factions to discuss a future roadmap. His absence signals a potential continuation of the conflict and increased instability, particularly in the south.

The situation highlights the complex interplay between key actors in Yemen: the Houthis in the north, the Saudi-backed government in Aden, and the STC led by al-Zubaidi. It also suggests potential strain in relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which supports both al-Zubaidi and Hanib (likely a misspelling of another STC figure), and the Saudi-backed government of Rashad Alimi.

Potential for Escalation and Regional Concerns

Hashim Albara predicts further airstrikes targeting STC troops. He warns that a protracted conflict could lead to the disintegration of Yemen, potentially creating a power vacuum that allows al-Qaeda, which previously controlled large swathes of the country until 2014, to re-establish a significant presence. The fear is a return to the situation prior to the Saudi-led intervention.

Notable Quote

“If Idarus Zubedi had showed up yesterday at the ATA, it would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough for Saudi Arabia.” – Hashim Albara, highlighting the significance of al-Zubaidi’s absence from the Riyadh talks.

Conclusion

The recent Saudi strikes against the STC represent a significant escalation in the Yemeni conflict. Al-Zubaidi’s rejection of the Riyadh talks and the subsequent charges of treason underscore the deep divisions within Yemen and the challenges to achieving a lasting peace. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further conflict and a resurgence of extremist groups. The coming hours will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the conflict and the stability of the region.