Saudi Arabia to invest trillion dollars in US, up from 600 billion | DW News

Key Concepts

• F-35 Stealth Fighter Jet: A highly sophisticated combat aircraft with stealth capabilities, designed for both air-to-air and air-to-ground combat, featuring advanced situational awareness systems.
• Stealth Capabilities: The ability of an aircraft to evade detection by radar and other enemy surveillance systems.
• Situational Awareness: The pilot's perception of the operational environment, including the status of friendly and enemy forces, and the surrounding terrain. This is enhanced in the F-35 through integrated radars, infrared signals, intelligence, and optics providing 360-degree awareness.
• Military Balance: The relative military strength between nations or blocs of nations, particularly in a specific region.
• Quasi Alliance: A relationship that resembles an alliance but is not formally recognized as such, often involving close cooperation and mutual defense understandings.
• Military Superiority: The condition of having a significantly stronger military force than an adversary, often maintained through technological advantage and superior training.

Saudi Arabia's Increased US Investment and F-35 Deal

Saudi Arabia's de facto leader, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, announced an increase in planned investments in the United States to $1 trillion, a significant rise from the previously stated $600 billion. Concurrently, President Trump announced the US would sell F-35 stealth fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. This marks a pivotal moment as it would be the first time these advanced stealth aircraft are supplied to an Arab nation.

Technical Capabilities of the F-35 Fighter Jet

Barry Posen, Professor of Political Science at MIT specializing in military strategy, described the F-35 as the "most sophisticated combat aircraft produced um, basically anywhere in the world." Key features highlighted include:

• Stealth Capabilities: Essential for evading enemy detection.
• Dual Role Capability: Usable for both air-to-air combat and air-to-ground attack.
• Advanced Situational Awareness: Integrates radars, infrared signals, intelligence, and optics to provide pilots with a comprehensive 360-degree view of their surroundings. The aircraft generates an overwhelming amount of information, often exceeding a single pilot's capacity to fully assimilate.

Impact on the Middle East Military Balance

The sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia is expected to alter the military balance in the Middle East and potentially test Washington's relationship with Israel.

• Theoretical vs. Practical Impact: While the sale changes the balance of power "in principle," Posen doubts it will significantly alter it "in practice" in the short to medium term.
• Factors Limiting Immediate Impact:
  • Pilot and Ground Crew Training: The F-35's full capabilities are contingent on highly trained personnel, which Posen suggests will take a considerable time for Saudi Arabia to achieve, if ever.
  • Integration with Existing Systems: The aircraft's effectiveness relies on integration with air defense radar systems and intelligence assets.
  • US Contractor Involvement: American contractors are expected to be heavily involved in maintenance, training, and security, implying that Saudi Arabia would likely require US cooperation for the aircraft's operational use in combat.

Broader Strategic Implications of the Deal

Posen argues that the F-35 sale signifies more than just a single arms deal; it represents a deeper strategic alignment.

• Physical Manifestation of Relationship: The F-35 is seen as "the physical manifestation of the tight relationship that uh President Trump hopes to build with the Saudis."
• US Commitment Signal: The Saudis understand the aircraft's value is tied to American cooperation, and the US presence in Saudi Arabia signals a strong commitment to the kingdom.
• Quasi Alliance Negotiations: The sale is viewed as connected to ongoing negotiations aimed at establishing a "quasi alliance" between the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Israeli Concerns and US-Saudi-Israeli Dynamics

The sale raises concerns for Israel, which has historically relied on maintaining superior military capabilities over its adversaries, a position historically secured by the US.

• Long-Term Worries: Israel may worry about no longer being the "special partner" of the US in the long run.
• Historical Israeli Sensitivity: Israelis have consistently shown sensitivity to US relations with Gulf States.
• Existing US Military Support for Saudis: The US has a long history of providing advanced military equipment and operational support to Saudi Arabia, including training pilots and providing security.
• Israeli Influence and Limitations: While Israel will likely voice its concerns, Posen believes they will be unable to "really stop this sale" due to:
  • President Trump's preference for large, lucrative arms sales.
  • The strategic importance of the US-Saudi relationship.
  • Israel's current dependence on Donald Trump's goodwill.
• Limited Impact on Military Balance: Posen reiterates that the independent ability of Saudi Arabia to threaten Israel will likely see "less change here than people think" in terms of the immediate military balance.

Conclusion

The F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia, coupled with increased Saudi investment in the US, signals a deepening strategic partnership between the two nations. While the advanced capabilities of the F-35 are undeniable, their immediate impact on the regional military balance is tempered by the extensive training, integration, and ongoing US support required for their effective deployment. This move, however, represents a significant step in the US's strategic reorientation in the Middle East, with potential long-term implications for regional alliances and security dynamics, despite Israel's likely vocal opposition.