Russians Are Quietly Accumulating Gold

Key Concepts

• Russian Gold Accumulation: Russian households have acquired nearly 300 tons of gold since 2022, driven by sanctions and a desire for alternative savings.
• Retail Gold Demand: Retail demand in Russia reached 62 tons in 2025, with a preference for bars, coins, and jewelry.
• Domestic Gold Exchange: Russia has launched a domestic gold exchange to facilitate gold trading and investment.
• Tax Breaks and Borrowing Against Gold: Russia is implementing tax breaks and allowing citizens to borrow against their gold holdings.
• Gold as a Policy Tool and Safeguard: Gold is being promoted as a national asset, a hedge against fiat currency, and a household safeguard.
• China's Gold Strategy: China has historically encouraged gold ownership as a form of national pride and economic resilience.
• Mercantilism and Tariffs: The discussion touches on potential tariffs on imports and exports, particularly concerning platinum and palladium, and their impact on international trade.
• Gold and Silver Market Dynamics: Analysis of gold and silver price movements, including potential range formations and the influence of supply and demand.
• UBS Platinum and Palladium Upgrade: UBS has upgraded platinum and palladium, citing consistent US demand and potential geopolitical factors.
• Deutsche Bank Gold Bottom: Deutsche Bank suggests the gold bottom may be around $3,800, based on ETF analysis.
• Fortuna Mining: Update on Fortuna Mining's Diamasuit gold project in Senegal, including preliminary economic assessment and drill results.

Russian Gold Accumulation and Policy

Russian households have amassed approximately 300 tons of gold since 2022. This significant accumulation is attributed to the impact of international sanctions, which have made holding foreign currencies more challenging for Russian citizens. Bloomberg reports that retail demand for gold in Russia reached 62 tons in 2025. According to Albany Tree Research, Russians are increasingly favoring gold in the form of bars, coins, and jewelry as a means of saving and wealth preservation.

The Russian government is actively supporting this trend through policy measures. Tax breaks are being offered to encourage gold ownership, and a domestic gold exchange has been launched. These initiatives aim to solidify gold's position not only as a household safeguard but also as a strategic policy tool for the nation. The speaker draws a parallel to China's approach, where gold ownership is linked to national pride and economic strength. The narrative suggests a shift from a top-down "do it or die" approach to a more integrated strategy where government encouragement and public sentiment converge. Russia is also exploring the possibility of allowing citizens to borrow capital against their gold holdings, further integrating gold into the financial system. This move, alongside China's similar initiatives, suggests a broader trend of tying national currencies to gold, not necessarily through a full gold standard, but by enabling borrowing and financial transactions backed by gold assets.

Market Overview and Precious Metals

The morning markets report indicates mixed performance across various assets. Senior yields are up by one point, and the dollar has seen a two-day increase of 10 points. Equity markets show gains, with the S&P 500 up 68.882 and the NASDAQ up 69 points. The VIX is down approximately one percentage point.

In precious metals, gold is down 11 points from its recent highs, while silver is trading at the highs of its recent range, experiencing buying activity from Asia that has carried into US trading hours. Copper and WTI crude oil are up slightly, and natural gas has seen a 1.5% increase. Bitcoin and Ethereum are also up. Palladium and platinum are mixed, with palladium up nine and platinum down nine. UBS has issued an upgrade for both metals, which will be discussed further. Grains are generally down, with wheat experiencing the most significant decline, potentially a reaction to the G Summit.

Geopolitical Influences on Platinum and Palladium

The discussion highlights potential geopolitical factors influencing the platinum and palladium markets. UBS has upgraded both metals, with a stronger conviction for platinum. The upgrade for palladium, despite perceived weaker fundamentals, is linked to consistent demand from the US. A significant factor is the potential for an executive order that could tariff imports into the US. While the speaker believes it's unlikely the US would tariff essential imports, other countries might retaliate by imposing tariffs on their exports to the US.

However, the speaker suggests that countries may opt for a more passive approach, simply reducing their sales of platinum and palladium to the US rather than imposing direct tariffs. This strategy is seen as a way to avoid the negative optics of being perceived as bullies, especially in the context of former President Trump's "bully" image. This potential reduction in supply is part of a broader mercantilist strategy.

Deutsche Bank and ETF Analysis on Gold

Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests that the gold market may have reached its bottom, with a projected floor no lower than $3,800. This assessment is based on an analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The speaker offers a more conspiratorial perspective, suggesting that ETFs might be selling gold, which is then being bought by institutions like JP Morgan to bolster the reserves of gold-backed ETFs such as GLD. This would explain an increase in GLD reserves even in a down market.

Technical Analysis of Gold and Silver

The video presents a technical analysis of gold and silver charts. Both metals are noted to have bottomed on the same day, with silver showing a stronger bottoming pattern despite a lower price point. Dotted lines on the charts represent alerts for becoming "outrageously bullish."

Key observations include:

• Breakdowns: The breakdowns for gold and silver appear to be similar.
• Gold's Resistance: Gold has tested a specific resistance area three times and failed to break through, suggesting an "echo order" is capping its momentum. This is attributed to potential selling by entities like BIS and Punch Protection Team.
• Silver's Momentum: In contrast, silver is approaching its resistance line, indicating a lack of a similar lid.
• Investment Strategy: The speaker advises that if one is bullish on gold based on the current chart, they should consider buying silver. Conversely, if bearish on silver, one should sell silver, and if bearish on gold, one should sell gold.
• Market Drivers: Gold is described as "scared," while silver is not. Directionally, silver demand is seen as a driver, while gold supply is seen as a reversal factor.
• Silver Supply: There is limited silver supply going into London, with much of it being loaned for short periods.
• Gold Supply: There is a consistent supply of gold entering the market, whether physical or paper, which is keeping a lid on its price.

Gold and Silver Price Ranges and Outlook

The speaker posits that gold is entering a new range, potentially between $3,800 and $4,200. This aligns with Deutsche Bank's $3,800 floor. The speaker is cautious about definitively calling it a range until more price action confirms it, but notes the presence of buying at lower levels and in the $4,000 area. A move back above these levels could trigger short covering.

Silver, while also within a range, is seen as trading between $44 and $49. The expectation is that silver, if it enters the identified candle pattern, should move higher. The speaker suggests that a "butterfly" pattern in gold, with targets around $4,200, $4,000, and $3,800, might be a viable strategy, especially considering open interest at the $4,000 strike in the OTC market.

The timeframe for these movements is uncertain, but the speaker suggests that the market might consolidate through the current contract period, with potential upward movement during "buy season" as the next Fed contract gains traction. The current period is identified as "buy season," and the possibility of a low having been established is considered.

Fortuna Mining Project Update

The segment includes an update on Fortuna Mining's Diamasuit gold project in Senegal. The company has delivered a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the project. Recent drilling has contributed to an increase in estimated gold ounces.

Key highlights from the update include:

• Southern Ark Drill Results: Drill results from Southern Ark show 8.6 g/ton over 13.6 meters. This area was initially identified as a gold soil anomaly by previous owners but had seen limited, unsuccessful drilling.
• Renewed Understanding of Geology: Fortuna's renewed understanding of the geology has led to successful drill testing, revealing mineralization with wide widths and high grades.
• Near-Surface Deposits: The mineralization is near-surface, found tens of meters below the surface.
• Supportive Government: The Senegalese government is supportive of the project.
• Project Development: Fortuna delivered its mine on time and budget amidst inflation. A construction decision for the Diamasuit project is anticipated in the first half of next year.

Conclusion and Takeaways

The video emphasizes the significant and growing role of gold in Russia, driven by sanctions and government policy, positioning it as a national asset and household safeguard. This trend is compared to China's successful integration of gold into its national strategy. The precious metals market is analyzed, with gold showing resistance while silver exhibits stronger upward momentum. Geopolitical factors, particularly potential trade actions, are noted as influences on platinum and palladium. Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests a potential bottom for gold, while the speaker offers a more nuanced view based on ETF activity. Technical analysis points to potential new trading ranges for gold and silver, with silver appearing to have more immediate upside potential. Finally, Fortuna Mining's progress on its Senegalese gold project highlights ongoing developments in the mining sector.