Russian seaport near Kerch bridge 'explodes' & war drones fly towards Zelensky’s plane

Key Concepts

• European Anxiety over US Peace Proposals: Concerns among European leaders regarding the potential implications of US-led peace initiatives for Ukraine, particularly regarding security guarantees.
• Drone Incidents near Zelenskyy's Plane: Unidentified drones approaching President Zelenskyy's aircraft in Ireland, raising concerns about hybrid warfare and security breaches.
• New US National Security Strategy: A recently published US strategy that has caused alarm among Ukrainian and European allies due to its perceived shift in focus and implications for NATO.
• Russian Information Campaigns: Kremlin's ongoing efforts to spread narratives of Russian invincibility and impending offensives.
• Frontline Medical Provision: Challenges and innovations in providing medical care to Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines, including the role of the David Nott Foundation.
• Occupied Territories Resistance: Ongoing resistance activities by Ukrainian forces and partisans in Russian-occupied territories.
• NATO Conventional Defense Capabilities: US desire for Europe to assume greater responsibility for NATO's conventional defense by 2027.
• Hybrid Warfare: The use of unconventional tactics, including disinformation and drone incursions, to destabilize and undermine adversaries.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Discussions and potential disagreements between the US and EU regarding the use of frozen Russian state assets.

Military Realm Updates

Ukrainian Drone Strikes in Russia:

• Ukrainian drones targeted Russia's Terriyuk seaport, located east of the Kerch Bridge.
• The Cizaran oil refinery in Samar Oblast, approximately 1,000 km east of Ukraine, was also hit.
• Russian officials and local media confirmed fires at the Terriyuk Sea port.
• Explosions were reported at the Cizaran oil refinery, with the mayor confirming a drone attack without specifying targets.
• Social media provided visual evidence of the Cizaran attack.

Russian Drone Attacks and Ukrainian Casualties:

• Last night, Ukraine reported shooting down 80 out of 137 Russian drones, a lower percentage than in previous instances.
• Ukraine's General Staff reported 1,250 Russian casualties (killed, wounded, missing, or captured) on the previous day.
• This daily casualty figure has been increasing in recent days, significantly higher than in preceding weeks, largely attributed to fighting in Prosk.
• Western officials generally consider Ukraine's General Staff statistics to be accurate.
• The city of Prosk is believed to have fallen to Russia, with ongoing efforts to safely evacuate remaining personnel.
• Cities like Hark, Det, and Zaparisia were hit with glide bombs in the hours preceding the report, with casualties but no updated figures available.

Russian Information Warfare and Military Posturing:

• The Kremlin continues its information campaign to project Russian invincibility and inevitable victory.
• Narratives suggest Russia is poised for offensives in the north and south of Ukraine, with their restraint attributed to a desire for peace.
• Despite limited capacity for significant simultaneous attacks, claims are being made of impending offensives into Chernihiv (north) and against Odesa and Mykolaiv (south).
• Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Combating Disinformation, warned against Russian narratives of impending offensives, stating Russia lacks the necessary manpower and material. He drew parallels to previous unfulfilled threats against Kharkiv and Sumy.
• The Institute for the Study of War noted an uptick in Russian mill blogger discussions about Chernihiv but deemed their efforts lackluster and lacking credibility.
• Alexey Zhuravlev, Deputy Chairperson of Russia's State Duma Defense Committee, stated that Russian forces are "deliberately not intensifying offensive operations" in the Kherson direction, implying they could launch offensives on Odesa and Mykolaiv from occupied Crimea.

Diplomatic and Security Developments

Drone Incident near President Zelenskyy's Plane in Dublin:

• Four military-grade drones breached a no-fly zone and approached President Zelenskyy's jet as it landed at Dublin Airport on Monday.
• The drones reached the expected location of the plane, but Zelenskyy's flight landed slightly ahead of schedule at 11:00 p.m. local time.
• The unidentified drones orbited an Irish Navy vessel, the L.E. William Butler Yeats, which had been secretly deployed to the Irish Sea.
• The drones, which took off northeast of Dublin and flew for two hours, had their lights on, suggesting an intent to be seen and create a nuisance, though the act is considered extremely dangerous and potentially an act of hybrid warfare.
• The origin and launch of the drones remain unknown, but security sources suspect Russian involvement, though direct evidence is lacking.
• The Irish Times later reported five drones breached the no-fly zone, triggering a major security alert.
• Sources indicated Zelenskyy's plane was not in danger due to its early landing.
• Ireland's Department of Defense declined to comment, citing operational security.
• Barry Andrews, an MP, called the incident a criminal offense.
• The Irish Navy vessel lacked air radar and could not detect the drones; lookouts spotted them due to their lights. The ship's only air defense was machine guns, and it had no capability to disable the drones.
• Irish Air Corps aircraft patrolling nearby did not engage the drones.
• The Taoiseach and Ministers for Justice and Defense were briefed.

Ireland's Defense Spending:

• In 2024, Ireland spent €1.3 billion on defense, approximately 0.24% of GDP.
• A record €1.5 billion has been allocated for 2026, still representing about a quarter of 1% of GDP.

US Shift in NATO Defense Responsibilities:

• Reuters reported that the United States wants Europe to assume the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, including intelligence and missile systems, by 2027.
• This message was conveyed by Pentagon officials to diplomats in Washington.
• This aligns with signals of US disinterest in NATO and a desire for European partners to increase their responsibility.

NATO Command Structure Realignment:

• NATO is reorganizing its subordinate military commands, transferring responsibility for Denmark, Sweden, and Finland from Joint Force Command Brunssum (Netherlands) to Joint Force Command Norfolk (Virginia, USA).
• General Christopher G. Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, stated this realignment strengthens the Euro-Atlantic area and posture in the High North, integrating Nordic nations under JFC Norfolk's leadership.
• JFC Norfolk's area of responsibility will now include Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the UK, in addition to the Atlantic maritime area.
• Norfolk is described as a strategic bridge between North America and Europe.

European Leaders' Conference Call and US Peace Proposals:

• Notes from a confidential conference call between President Zelenskyy and EU leaders (including Macron, Scholz, Stubb, Tusk, Meloni, Frederiksen) and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg were leaked to Der Spiegel.
• Key Concerns Expressed:
  • Macron: "There is a chance that the US will betray Ukraine on territory without clarity on security guarantees." He warned of a "big danger for Zelenskyy."
  • Scholz: Advised Zelenskyy to be "very careful in the coming days," stating, "They are playing games with both you and us." This was likely a reference to US negotiators Steve Wicker and Jared Kushner.
  • Stubb: Warned, "We must not leave Ukraine and Vladimir alone with these guys."
  • Stoltenberg: Concurred, stating, "I agree with Alexander that we need to protect Vladimir."
• Frozen Russian Assets: Participants emphasized that the issue of frozen Russian assets is exclusively an EU matter. However, the potential for a single member state (e.g., Belgium) to veto decisions was highlighted as a vulnerability. The US is perceived as wanting to keep frozen assets as a negotiation tool with Moscow.
• US Treasury Action: Two days after Wicker and Kushner met Putin, the US Treasury partially suspended sanctions against Lukoil-branded gas stations outside Russia, indicating a potential softening of the US stance. This action has led to questions about what the US gained in return.
• Putin's Statements: In an interview, Putin described his 5-hour meeting with Wicker and Kushner as lengthy and wearying. He also stated that Russia would liberate Donbas territories by force or Ukrainian troops would leave.
• Scholz's Meeting with Belgian PM: Scholz was scheduled to meet with the Belgian Prime Minister to discuss the potential use of frozen assets for a reparation loan to Ukraine, with Ursula von der Leyen also attending.

New US National Security Strategy:

• The White House released a new national security strategy that has caused concern among Ukrainians and European allies.
• Key Snippets and Interpretations:
  • Enabling European Autonomy: The strategy prioritizes enabling Europe to "stand on its own feet" and take "primary responsibility for its own defense."
  • Cultivating Resistance to Current Trajectory: It suggests cultivating resistance to Europe's "current trajectory" within European nations and building up "healthy nations" through commercial ties, weapon sales, and political collaboration.
  • Ending NATO Expansion Perception: Aims to end the "perception and preventing the reality of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance."
  • Promoting "Genuine Democracy" and "Patriotic European Parties": Encourages allies to promote "genuine democracy," "freedom of expression," and "unapologetic celebrations of European nations individual character and history." It expresses optimism about the "growing influence of patriotic European parties" and aims to "help Europe correct its current trajectory."
  • Critique of European Governments: The document criticizes European officials for holding "unrealistic expectations for the war," operating in "unstable minority governments," and "trampling on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition." It claims a "large European majority wants peace" but this desire is not translated into policy due to "subversion of democratic processes."
  • No Mention of Russia as a Threat: Notably, the document does not identify Russia as a threat.
  • Implications for Europe: The strategy is interpreted as suggesting Kyiv cannot win, that Europe is an obstacle to peace, and that the US sees nothing to defend against in Europe other than Europeans themselves and their ruling parties.
  • Shashank Joshi (The Economist) Analysis: Views the strategy as a "bad omen," a return to the US "assault on Europe," and reinforcing the perception that US commitment to Europe is waning. It suggests Europe must be ready to deter and defend against Russia with minimal US assistance, a goal deemed unrealistic within the current US administration's lifespan.
  • China Section: The strategy's section on China focuses on strategic and technological competition, framed largely in terms of trade balance and counteracting "predatory economic practices." However, it reinforces the perception of the US as a decreasingly attractive and trusted partner for Europeans.

Occupied Territories and Resistance

Resistance Operations (November 19 - December 4, 2025):

• Ukrainian resistance forces conducted at least 17 confirmed operations.
• The highest tempo of activity was observed around the Zaporizhzhia axis, coinciding with Russian advances towards July.
• A high tempo of resistance operations was also noted on the left bank of Kherson.
• Two targeted arson attacks in Crimea targeted vehicles used by Russian forces.
• The campaign appears focused on stressing Russian logistics and security on the southern front lines, with actions designed for deniability and repeatability.

Regional Resistance Activities:

• Occupied Kherson (Left Bank):
  • November 21: Strike on a Russian position using mines and assault tactics against Russian troops.
  • November 23: Destruction of an OSA air defense system, aimed at disabling local air cover.
  • November 30: Near Berdiansk, two explosions targeted Akhmat (Chechen Kadyrovite) units, damaging two vehicles and inflicting casualties. This highlights collaboration between Ukrainian forces and local partisan networks.
  • December 1: Roadside blast near Berdiansk killed five Russian soldiers, wounded four, and damaged one armored personnel carrier and two pickup trucks.
• Occupied Zaporizhzhia Region:
  • November 27: Strike on a military evacuation vehicle transporting wounded Russian soldiers, resulting in their deaths.
• Occupied Crimea:
  • November 29: Anti-Muzh claimed destruction of a logistics vehicle in Pervomaiske, supplying Russian troops.
  • December 3: Anti-Muzh released images of a burned Russian officer's car.

Non-Violent Resistance:

• November 21 (National Day of Dignity and Freedom): Leafleting and display of Ukrainian flags in Mariupol.
• These actions are rare due to significant risk but are strategically employed for important dates, marking the Orange Revolution and Euromaidan Revolution.

Impact of Diplomatic Movements on Resistance:

• Trust and faith in the US as an ally among Ukrainians in occupied territories had long dissipated.
• The 28-point peace plan is largely viewed as a Russian information operation, with Russia perceived as not interested in a ceasefire.
• Frustration exists that Western media and politicians may be falling for Russian "scams."

New Russian National Policy Decree:

• A new decree signed last week sets specific metrics for patriotic events and Russian civic identity in occupied territories.
• Metrics:
  • 2.65 million Ukrainians to participate in patriotic events by 2036.
  • 95% of residents in occupied territories to report a Russian civic identity.
• The decree is noted for its concrete metrics and specific attention to occupied territories ("new regions").
• It reflects a continued fear of an enduring Ukrainian identity in these territories, which Russia dismisses as terrorism and extremism.

Frontline Medical Provision

Role of the David Nott Foundation:

• The foundation, named after renowned war surgeon David Nott, trains doctors to become "war doctors" by equipping them with skills for operating in conflict zones.
• Courses are conducted on front lines, covering 40-50 essential operations for a sole surgeon.
• The foundation has trained doctors globally, including extensively in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion.

State of Ukraine's Medical System:

• Soviet-Era Training Model: Ukraine's medical specialist training system is based on a Soviet model, characterized by an apprenticeship style where junior doctors align with a single mentor for three years, potentially inheriting their mistakes. This contrasts with the UK's structured 6-7 year specialist training pathways.
• Reverse Preparedness: While the UK is underprepared for conflict surgery, Ukraine possesses unique skill sets developed in wartime. Junior Ukrainian doctors, though potentially lacking in basic procedures like gallbladder removal, are accomplished in damage control surgery to save lives.
• Challenges:
  • Junior Doctors: A significant number of very junior doctors are being sent to the front lines without sufficient technical skills.
  • Brain Drain: Many junior doctors are reportedly leaving the country.
  • Blood Supplies: Low blood supplies have been a reported issue.

Innovative Medical Practices:

• Buddy-to-Buddy Transfusion: A mainstreamed practice in Ukrainian medical care, where colleagues donate blood directly to patients when blood supplies are scarce or evacuation routes are blocked. This was previously considered an extreme practice reserved for special forces.

Improving Frontline Medical Care:

• Increased Training: There is a vast need for more emergency and specialized training.
• Institutional Support: Allied nations and their medical institutions are encouraged to support Ukraine in rebuilding and creating more robust medical training pathways.
• Royal Colleges' Role: UK medical colleges and similar institutions in Europe and the US are urged to assist Ukraine in developing comprehensive training programs.
• Learning from Crisis: Ukrainian doctors like Juliana, an anesthetist, have learned critical skills, such as subclavian vein cannulation, on the front lines out of necessity, highlighting the need for formal training to prevent such situations.

What Ukraine Teaches Medical Professionals:

• Laparoscopic Surgery in Chest Wounds: Ukrainian surgeons are performing laparoscopic (keyhole) surgery, even in the chest, for shrapnel and bullet wounds to the heart and lungs. This sophisticated, minimally invasive approach leads to faster patient recovery, enabling fighters to return to the front lines quickly.
• Challenging Medical Dogma: These innovations are challenging established medical practices and knowledge.
• Knowledge Exchange: Ukrainian surgeons are sharing their hard-won knowledge with international doctors (e.g., from Finland, Burma, Taiwan), with the David Nott Foundation focused on translating this knowledge to global conflict zones.
• Challenging Evacuation Chains: Innovations are being made in evacuation methods, challenging traditional military medical doctrine (Role 1-4 evacuation chain).

Western Preparedness for Conflict:

• Civilian Trauma Systems: Civilian trauma systems in the UK have been significantly improved due to experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, leading to better survival rates.
• Underpreparedness for Large-Scale Conflict: Western countries, including the UK, are vastly underprepared for conflicts on the scale seen in Ukraine.
• National Security = Health Security: Many European countries are seeking to upskill their civilian health infrastructure and implement hostile environment surgical training, recognizing that national security is intrinsically linked to health security.
• Subspecialization Vulnerability: The high degree of subspecialization in Western medical systems, while beneficial for civilian care, makes them vulnerable in potential conflict scenarios.

Amputation Crisis in Ukraine:

• A related issue discussed is a significant rise in amputations in Ukraine due to injuries and resource limitations on the front lines.

Final Thoughts and Observations

Dom Nichols:

• Finnish Embassy Event: Attended Finland's Independence Day reception.
• Diplomatic Observations:
  • Germany's Shift: A change in Germany and Europe has occurred, leading to a decision to "take this issue by the scruff of the neck," with Germany prepared to lead European efforts if the US steps back.
  • NATO 5% Pledge: Concerns were raised that the NATO 5% defense spending pledge might cause issues at the next NATO conference in Turkey. Donald Trump reportedly does not realize the pledge is split between hard defense (3.5%) and associated expenditure (1.5%), and that the UK pushed for a delayed implementation until 2035.
  • Desire for Hard 5%: Countries further north and east in Europe desire a harder 5% commitment on defense spending sooner.
• Diplomatic Channels: Despite being neighbors, the Finnish and Russian embassies in London have no diplomatic contact, not even returning tennis balls that cross the fence.

Francis Durnley:

• Swedish Porridge: Acknowledged upsetting Swedish listeners with comments about porridge and mentioned receiving a Swedish porridge recipe book.
• Telegraph Christmas Fundraiser: Announced the start of the Telegraph's annual Christmas fundraiser for four charities: Motor Neurone Disease Association, Prostate Cancer Research, K9 Partners, and Not Forgotten. A phone-in event will take place on Sunday.
• French Security Incidents:
  • Espionage Arrest: A Franco-Russian woman was arrested in France, accused of spying and ties to Kremlin proxies, highlighting the ongoing hybrid war.
  • Drone Over Submarine Base: Five drones were detected and fired upon over a French nuclear submarine base in Brittany, indicating a westward expansion of drone incursions.
• Existential Threat Perception: Noted that in France and the UK, Russia is perceived as a distant threat, unlike in southern Italy, though this perception is diminishing.

James Goff:

• New Year's Resolution: Advised listeners to mobilize their medical institutions to support Ukraine, stating that this will benefit their own nations in preparing for potential conflicts. "Help Ukraine and you help yourselves."

Podcast Production and Subscription Information:

• "Ukraine, the Latest" is an original podcast from The Telegraph.
• Subscribers can get one month free, then two months for £1 at www.telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest.
• Ukrainian and Russian language versions of the podcast are available.
• A free weekly newsletter offers Q&A, recommended reading, analysis, and behind-the-scenes insights.
• A Ukraine live blog is available on The Telegraph's website.
• Listeners are encouraged to follow the podcast on their preferred app, leave reviews, and share it.
• Live conversations can be heard daily at 1 p.m. London time on Xpaces.
• Contact email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk.
• Producers: Rachel Porter, Francis Durnley, Louisa Wells, David Nolles.