Russian city hit with ‘most massive’ strike of the war | Ukraine: The Latest

Key Concepts

• Ongoing Ukraine Conflict: Diplomatic efforts, persistent Russian military tactics, and Ukrainian defense.
• British Army Adaptation: Integrating lessons from Ukraine into doctrine, training, and medical care.
• Technological Accelerants: Impact of drones and electronic warfare on modern combat.
• Mobility and Countermobility: Addressing the challenge of extensive minefields.
• NATO Integration and Readiness: Emphasizing combined arms maneuver and deterrence.
• Historical Context: Understanding the industrial scale of warfare and citizen armies.

Current State of the Ukraine Conflict (as of January 26th, 2024)

Diplomatic Activity & Russian Posturing Trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US, held in Abu Dhabi, concluded without a breakthrough, with further talks scheduled for February 1st. Simultaneously, a separate meeting occurred between US envoy Steve Wickoff, Jared Kushner, and Vladimir Putin in Moscow, with Wickoff and Kushner presenting a more optimistic view of the Moscow talks, a contrast noted by the hosts. Despite these talks, Russia launched a massive aerial attack on Ukrainian cities. Putin, through Kremlin aide Yuri Ushikov, is pushing for a resolution based on the “Anchorage formula” agreed upon during a meeting with Trump in Alaska last August, demanding Ukraine withdraw forces from occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts – a claim Ukraine denies agreeing to. Putin also demanded elections in Ukraine, deeming the current president illegitimate without them. Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed optimism regarding American monitoring of a potential peace process, a sentiment the hosts view with skepticism. Donald Trump was quoted as claiming he could settle the war in "one day, 24 hours."

Russian Military Actions & Ukrainian Defense The period leading up to and including January 26th, 2024, marking 3 years and 338 days since the full-scale invasion began, saw significant Russian aggression. Russia launched a massive aerial attack on Ukrainian cities (Kev, Sunumi, Hark, Churnhe regions) involving 370 drones and 21 missiles. These munitions included KH59/69 guided missiles, Zirkon anti-ship missiles (not intercepted), KH22/32 cruise missiles, Ecanda M/S300 ballistic missiles, and drones. Ukraine’s air defense systems intercepted a significant portion – 357 of 375 drones, 9 of 12 KH22/32 missiles, and 5 of 6 Ecanda M/S300 missiles, but failed to intercept the two Zirkon missiles and one KH59/69. The attacks severely impacted Kev’s infrastructure, leaving 15% of the city’s housing (1,330 residential buildings) without heating, with temperatures at -2 Celsius. Further strikes occurred overnight Saturday-Sunday, involving 102 drones and two Iskander missiles. Reports emerged of a drone strike on an oil refinery in Slavian Nuban, Russia, with Russian officials attributing damage to “drone debris.” Ukrainian reports estimate Russia has used chemical weapons 12,000 times.

International Support and Economic Impact Australia has provided $1.7 billion AUD (approx. $1.1 billion USD) in total aid to Ukraine since February 2022, including $40 million AUD (approx. $27 million USD) for Ukraine’s energy support fund. Russia’s share of EU gas supply has seen a significant reduction, from 40% pre-2022 to an anticipated 13% by 2025.

British Army Lessons Learned from the Ukraine Conflict

The British Army’s Land Warfare Centre is actively integrating lessons from the war in Ukraine into its training and doctrine, with a strong emphasis on preparing for potential large-scale conflict.

Adapting Doctrine and Training Enduring principles of war, such as maintaining the aim, concentration of force, and deception, remain constant. However, the conflict is shaping training, with an emphasis on increasing the realism and pressure in exercises ("jeopardy in training") to better prepare soldiers for combat. There is a concern about learning the “wrong lessons” from Ukraine’s more static form of warfare, emphasizing the need to maintain training for the combined arms maneuver capabilities expected of NATO forces, which require a year of dedicated training.

Technological Accelerants and Electronic Warfare Technology, particularly drones (including FPV drones and uncrewed systems) and electronic warfare, is significantly altering the battlefield. Russia’s proficiency in electronic warfare necessitates a greater focus on countering it. The concept of “wrecky strike” – finding and engaging the enemy at range – is being emphasized.

Tactical Care of the Combat Casualty (TC3) The Army, in collaboration with the Defence Medical Services, is updating training at all levels to improve battlefield medical care. This involves adopting Canadian TC3 principles, mirroring the British Army’s previous BCD (Battlefield Combat Drills) approach, and integrating the "Actit for the Fight" doctrine, initially developed by Canadians and applied to British and Ukrainian soldiers.

Mobility and Countermobility Doctrine is being revised to account for the unexpectedly high volume of minefields encountered in Ukraine, recognizing that minefields are used to shape enemy maneuver. The importance of both maneuverability and denying the enemy maneuverability is stressed.

CBRN Threats The increased use of chemical weapons by Russia demands enhanced training and preparation for CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) environments.

NATO Integration The importance of NATO integration is repeatedly stressed, involving adherence to common NATO doctrine, achieving standards through evaluations (Stanovals and Stanags), and actively participating in operations like Operation Cabrit (the UK’s contribution to NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence in Eastern Europe). Lessons from these operations are continuously analyzed and incorporated into training.

Historical Context and Industrial Scale of Warfare A team of historians within the Land Warfare Center provides context by drawing parallels between contemporary challenges and past conflicts, recognizing that many current situations have historical precedents. The speakers highlight the importance of understanding the industrial scale of warfare, including mobilization and the need for citizen armies, referencing historical examples like World War II. Colonel Thirsten emphasizes the importance of a “professional lessons learning organization” and concludes with the Roman maxim “Si vis pacem, para bellum” (“If you want peace, prepare for war”), underscoring the need for constant readiness as a deterrent and reaffirming the British Army’s historical strength and future capabilities to potential adversaries.

Key Figures & Statements

• Dom Nichols (Host): Highlights the disconnect between diplomatic efforts and Russian military actions.
• Francis Durnley (Associate Editor): Provides analysis of diplomatic statements and reports from the ground.
• Hamish de Bretton-Gordon (Former Tank Commander): Offers military expertise and historical context.
• Vladimir Putin (via Yuri Ushikov): Insists on resolving the territorial question based on the “Anchorage formula.”
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Expressed hope for US security guarantees and monitoring of a peace process.
• Donald Trump: Claimed he could settle the war in "one day, 24 hours."
• Colonel Thirsten: Emphasizes a “professional lessons learning organization” and the Roman maxim “Si vis pacem, para bellum.”

Technical Terms & Concepts

• KH59/69, KH22/32, Ecanda M/S300, Zirkon, Iskander: Types of Russian missiles.
• FPV Drone: First-Person View drone.
• ITAR: US International Traffic in Arms Regulations.
• Shadow Fleet: Network of tankers used to circumvent sanctions on Russian oil.
• High MARS: High Mobility Artillery Rocket System.
• CBRN: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear.
• UDA Loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act – a decision-making cycle.
• TC3: Tactical Care of the Combat Casualty.
• BCD (Battlefield Combat Drills): A previous British Army program for tactical casualty care.
• Combined Arms Maneuver: Coordinated offensive action employing multiple military branches.
• Mobility/Countermobility: The ability to move forces effectively and actions taken to impede enemy movement.
• Stanovals & Stanags: Standardized NATO evaluation and agreement procedures.
• Operation Cabrit: The UK’s contribution to NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence in Eastern Europe.
• Uncrewed Systems/Drones: Remotely piloted or autonomous aerial, ground, or maritime vehicles.
• Accelerants: Technologies (like drones) that are rapidly changing the character of warfare.

Conclusion

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, marked by persistent Russian aggression despite diplomatic overtures, serves as a critical crucible for modern military adaptation. The British Army, through its Land Warfare Centre, is rapidly integrating these lessons, focusing on technological accelerants like drones and electronic warfare, evolving battlefield medical care, and addressing the challenges of extensive minefields. While adapting to the realities of the Ukrainian conflict, there is a conscious effort to maintain readiness for NATO's combined arms maneuver capabilities, emphasizing historical context, the industrial scale of warfare, and the enduring principle that preparing for war is essential for maintaining peace.