"Russia wants NATO to be destroyed" Interview with Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Budrys | DW News

Here's a comprehensive summary of the provided YouTube video transcript:

Key Concepts

• NATO Frontline State: Countries bordering Russia or Belarus, directly exposed to potential Russian aggression.
• Deterrence: The act of discouraging an attack through the threat of retaliation.
• Hybrid Attacks: Coordinated efforts using non-military means (e.g., cyberattacks, disinformation, economic pressure, border manipulation) to destabilize an adversary.
• Gray Zone: A state of conflict below the threshold of conventional warfare, where actions are ambiguous and difficult to attribute.
• Host Nation Support: The assistance provided by a host country to allied forces stationed within its territory.
• Regional Defense Plans: Agreements within NATO outlining how member states will collectively defend specific regions.
• NATO Capability Targets: Agreed-upon defense capabilities that each NATO member state is expected to possess.
• Critical Undersea Infrastructure: Vital underwater assets like pipelines and communication cables.
• Shadow Fleet: A fleet of oil tankers operating outside of international regulations, often used to circumvent sanctions.
• Meteorological Balloons: Weather balloons, which can be instrumentalized for illicit purposes.
• Sanctions: Penalties imposed by countries or international organizations on other countries, individuals, or entities to exert pressure.
• Political Hostages: Individuals detained by a regime for political reasons.
• Transatlantic Allies: Countries in North America and Europe that share common democratic values and security interests.
• European Security Architecture: The framework of agreements, institutions, and policies designed to ensure security and stability in Europe.

Lithuania's Stance and Preparedness

Lithuania, a NATO frontline state bordering Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, has been a vocal supporter of Kyiv since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The country is actively pushing for increased military aid for Ukraine and a clear path for Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU.

Defense Spending and Readiness

Lithuania is significantly increasing its defense spending, which will reach 5.4% of its GDP next year, the highest in NATO and the free world. This investment is aimed at enhancing the readiness of its armed forces, developing a fully operational and maneuverable land division, and expanding host nation support capabilities. The country is preparing to host a German brigade by the end of 2027 and is improving conditions for American allies stationed in Lithuania.

Collective Defense Efforts

Lithuania views defense as a collective effort. Two key steps have been fulfilled within NATO:

1. Regional Defense Plans: Allies have agreed on overarching plans for collective defense and defeating adversaries if necessary.
2. NATO Capability Targets: Specific defense capabilities required from each member state (e.g., Germany, Spain, Belgium, Lithuania, Nordic countries) have been politically agreed upon.

However, Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis notes a perceived lack of enthusiasm and mobilization in the implementation phase of these plans compared to earlier stages.

Russia's Hybrid Warfare and NATO's Response

Lithuania is experiencing hybrid attacks and airspace violations, which Minister Landsbergis believes are Russia's attempts to test NATO's resolve and create a "gray zone." These actions aim to undermine NATO's deterrence and sow doubt among Western societies about the necessity of supporting Ukraine.

Examples of Hybrid Tactics and NATO's Countermeasures

• Disruption of Critical Undersea Infrastructure: Russia has interfered with undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. NATO responded by increasing its presence in the Baltic Sea with more vessels and reviewing procedures for littoral nations. This led to a year without disruptions.
• Drone Incidents: In July, two drones carrying explosives landed in Lithuania due to running out of fuel, not because they were shot down. This served as a wake-up call for NATO. Similar incidents occurred in Poland (over 20 drones) and airspace violations in Estonia and Lithuania by fighter jets. NATO responded by increasing the posture of fighter jets and ground-based detectors. These measures have led to a drop in drone incidents.
• Meteorological Balloons: Belarus is instrumentalizing meteorological balloons, which are described as "cigarette smuggling balloons," for hybrid attacks. These balloons disrupt civil aviation, forcing airport closures and causing millions in losses for airlines. Lithuania has closed its land border with Belarus and is installing radars and other detection systems.

Strategic Message of Hybrid Attacks

Russia's hybrid tactics aim to:

• Question NATO's readiness and deterrence.
• Send a message to Western societies that they should focus on domestic issues rather than supporting Ukraine.
• Create a perception that NATO's deterrence is not working.

Lithuania's strategy is to deny this narrative by restoring deterrence and applying lessons learned from previous incidents.

Belarus's Role and Sanctions

Lithuania is holding Belarus accountable at the International Court of Justice for state-organized activities against it, including the instrumentalization of illegal migration and now smuggling operations via meteorological balloons. Belarus has two large cigarette factories dedicated to smuggling, which finances the regime.

Proposed Sanctions Against Belarus

Lithuania advocates for EU-level sanctions against Belarus for hybrid activities. This would involve:

• Adding a "hybrid attacks against EU" criterion to the existing sanctions regime, alongside human rights and assistance to Russia for aggression against Ukraine.
• Reviewing and expanding targeted sectors for sanctions, including:
  • Ammonium fertilizers.
  • Civil aviation sector.
  • Business-to-business services like accounting, legal services, and auditing.

Lithuania believes that even if the balloon problem is managed, Belarus will find other ways to instrumentalize cross-border activities.

Belarus's Diplomatic Maneuvers

Lithuania observes attempts by the United States to achieve the release of political prisoners in Belarus, referring to them as "political hostages." While supporting these diplomatic efforts, Lithuania warns that the Belarusian regime is using this period to soften its international image and simultaneously exert pressure on its neighbors. This dual approach is seen as manipulative.

Concerns Regarding US-Belarus Talks

Lithuania's message to transatlantic allies is that the regime is manipulating the current situation. They emphasize that this is a NATO and EU frontline issue, and a shared responsibility to restore order.

Transatlantic Relations and US Commitment

Lithuania's recent visit to the US, including meetings with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Special Envoy to Belarus John Cole, confirmed a shared assessment of the situation and the instrumentalization of activities by adversaries.

US Expectations from Europe

The US expects Europe to step up its defense spending, increase its capabilities, and be a strong ally. This is not about the US abandoning Europe but about the mutual interest in having strong partners.

US Troop Presence in Lithuania

Lithuania hopes that US soldiers will remain stationed in Lithuania, citing strategic, military, economic, and financial arguments, as well as the quality of host nation support and training facilities. They believe Lithuania is an optimal location for US forces with a high effect.

Strengthening the Frontline and European Security Architecture

Lithuania emphasizes the shared responsibility to strengthen resilience on the frontline. They are adapting to new threats and becoming more robust. Key initiatives include:

• Building an anti-drone wall as suggested by the European Commission.
• The Eastern Watch operation.

The message is that if the frontline is not strong, the entire continent is at risk, as demonstrated by the spread of drone incidents from the borders to Denmark, the Netherlands, and elsewhere.

Germany's Brigade Deployment

Germany is building up capabilities in Lithuania with a brigade to be fully deployed by the end of 2027. Lithuania is investing heavily in this project, worth 1.5 billion euros, for roads, barracks, training areas, and shooting ranges. While acknowledging that the pace could be faster, Lithuania is satisfied with the progress and the seriousness shown by Germany. This deployment, along with Germany's broader military build-up, sends a strong deterrence message.

Broader Cooperation with Germany

Beyond military infrastructure, Lithuania sees a widening security dialogue, increased economic cooperation, German investments in Lithuania's defense industry, and cultural exchange. The planned "Lithuanian Year" in Germany in 2027 aims to bring the nations closer through people-to-people contact and promoting German language learning.

Lessons Learned from Russia and China

Lithuania believes that Western Europe, particularly Germany, has made progress in its mindset regarding Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, Minister Landsbergis expresses concern that there might still be a "naivety" in the approach to countries like Russia, believing that cooperation can change their behavior.

Russia's Stated Intentions

Russia's stated intentions at the end of 2021 were to destroy NATO, push its infrastructure back to 1997 borders, and remove US capabilities from Europe. Lithuania argues that these goals are being actively pursued and are not solely about Ukraine.

Parallels with China

Similar to Russia, Lithuania sees a flawed approach in engaging with China, believing that increased engagement will prevent China's strategies of economic domination. This is seen as a miscalculation.

Need for a New Security Architecture

Lithuania advocates for learning from mistakes and creating a European security architecture that prevents Russian aggression and protects territorial integrity. In the economic field, a similar need is identified concerning China, to avoid economies being "on their knees" in the future.

Conclusion

Lithuania is at the forefront of confronting Russian aggression and hybrid warfare. The country is demonstrating strong commitment through increased defense spending and active participation in NATO's collective defense efforts. While acknowledging progress in transatlantic and European cooperation, Lithuania stresses the urgent need to learn from past mistakes, particularly regarding Russia and China, and to build a robust European security architecture that ensures peace and territorial integrity. The country is actively working to counter hybrid threats, hold adversaries accountable, and strengthen its alliances.