Russia-Ukraine-US negotiations: UAE to host first trilateral talks on ending war

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks: Towards a Potential Resolution?

Key Concepts:

• Trilateral Talks: First direct negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the US in four years, aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
• Donbas: The contested region in eastern Ukraine, comprising Luhansk and Donetsk, representing a major sticking point in negotiations.
• Territorial Control: The central issue of dispute, with Russia seeking recognition of its control over occupied territories and Ukraine resisting concessions.
• Security Guarantees: A key demand from Ukraine, seeking assurances against future Russian aggression.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Assets held by the US, potentially to be used for postwar reconstruction in Ukraine, contingent on a peace treaty.
• Zapozhzhia Nuclear Plant: A point of contention, with both Russia and Ukraine claiming control.
• Egor Quest: Head of Russia’s military intelligence, representing Moscow at the negotiating table.

1. Initiation of Trilateral Talks & Initial Positions

The first trilateral meeting between Ukraine, Russia, and the US to discuss ending the war in Ukraine is scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi over two days. This development follows Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s discussions with Donald Trump in Davos, where Zelenskyy expressed optimism, stating, “If all the sides will work a lot, we will end this war. But if somebody will play the games, the war will continue.” US President Biden, however, tempered expectations, noting that both Putin and Zelenskyy “would like to make a deal,” but offered no predictions of success. The talks mark the first time representatives from all three nations will be in the same room since the beginning of the conflict four years ago.

2. Russian Representation & Potential Compromises

Russia will be represented by Egor Quest, the head of Russia’s military intelligence, signifying a high-level commitment to the negotiations. A potential signal of compromise from the Kremlin is Vladimir Putin’s agreement to consider using Russian assets frozen by US sanctions for postwar reconstruction in Ukraine, but only after a peace treaty is concluded. Currently, Russia occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, with slow but ongoing advances.

3. The Core Territorial Dispute & Ukrainian Stance

The primary obstacle to a lasting settlement remains the issue of territorial control. Russia seeks recognition of its control over occupied territories, specifically demanding Ukraine withdraw from the Donetsk region, particularly the heavily fortified area between Kostantinovka and Slavansk. Ukraine, however, insists on any territorial concessions being subject to a national referendum, as stated by Zelenskyy. This stance is rooted in the fact that Ukraine still holds a foothold in the Donbas region (Luhansk and Donetsk).

4. Negotiating Positions & Proposed Solutions

Ukraine has proposed a potential solution involving the removal of military forces from the Donbas region to create a neutral buffer zone, contingent on Russia reciprocating. The US has suggested establishing a free economic zone in the Donbas to stimulate industry and economic recovery. However, Russia historically demands a complete Ukrainian withdrawal from the region. According to US Special Envoy Steve Whit, approximately 90% of a potential deal is agreed upon, but the remaining 10% – encompassing territory, security guarantees, and the status of the Zapozhzhia nuclear plant – represents the critical sticking points.

5. Current Assessment from the Ground: Ukraine & Russia

Audrey McCalpine, reporting from Kyiv, emphasized that the claimed 90% agreement is less significant if the unresolved issues are the most critical. The Donbas region remains the central focus, with Ukraine willing to consider a buffer zone only if Russia also withdraws forces. Julia Shabaliva, reporting from Moscow, highlighted that the main outcome of recent negotiations between Putin and Whit was the continued disagreement on territorial disputes and security guarantees. Russia demands the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas, a condition Ukraine deems unacceptable. Russian negotiators, reportedly receiving specific instructions from Putin, are approaching the talks with a firm stance. Bilateral negotiations between Russian and US special envoys, Kurill Ditrev and Steve Witkco, are also planned to focus on economic affairs.

6. Moscow’s Expectations & US Role

Moscow views the trilateral talks as a positive step towards communication despite significant differences. Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov stated that the US has played a constructive role in preparing for the meeting and hopes it will open prospects for ending the conflict.

7. Potential Trade-offs & Escalation Risks

Ukraine may consider offering to halt attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities in exchange for concessions on other issues, such as energy infrastructure security. However, Moscow seeks a comprehensive peace deal, not merely a ceasefire. Russia has been actively targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, leaving thousands without essential services during winter.

8. Data & Statistics

• Territorial Occupation: Russia currently occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory.
• Negotiation Progress: US estimates suggest 90% of a potential deal is agreed upon, with 10% remaining unresolved.
• Negotiation Duration (Putin-Whit): The recent negotiations between Putin and Whit lasted almost four hours.

Conclusion:

The upcoming trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi represent a crucial, albeit fragile, opportunity to advance towards a resolution of the war in Ukraine. While both Russia and Ukraine express a desire for a deal, fundamental disagreements over territorial control, security guarantees, and the Donbas region remain significant obstacles. The success of these negotiations hinges on whether both sides are willing to move beyond maximalist demands and engage in genuine compromise, facilitated by the US’s continued diplomatic efforts. The outcome will likely determine the trajectory of the conflict and the future security landscape of Eastern Europe.