Russia-Ukraine peace: What compromises are really acceptable for Ukraine? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Ukrainian Sovereignty: The right of Ukraine to govern itself independently and make its own decisions.
• Sustainable Peace: A lasting peace that addresses the root causes of conflict and provides security guarantees.
• Red Lines: Non-negotiable positions or demands in a negotiation.
• Territorial Concessions: Giving up parts of one's territory as part of a peace agreement.
• Security Guarantees: Assurances from other countries that they will protect a nation's security.
• Capitulation: Surrendering unconditionally.
• Coalition of the Willing: A group of countries that agree to cooperate on a specific issue, often military or political.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Russian financial assets that have been seized or blocked by other countries.
• Reassurance Force: A military force established to deter aggression and provide security.

Summary of Discussion on Ukraine Peace Plan

This discussion centers on the ongoing efforts to establish a peace plan for Ukraine, highlighting the complexities, differing perspectives, and the critical role of European involvement.

1. The Evolving Peace Plan and Ukraine's Red Lines

• Initial US-Russia Proposal: A 28-point plan, reportedly drawn up by American and Russian officials, was leaked and heavily criticized for favoring Russia. This plan was not officially presented to the Ukrainian parliament.
• Ukrainian Stance: Yhenia Kravchuk, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament, emphasizes that Ukraine's primary "red lines" are maintaining its sovereignty and securing a sustainable peace.
  • Sovereignty: This is defined as independence and the ability to make decisions. A key point of contention was a potential cap on the Ukrainian army, which is seen as a crucial safeguard and a source of distrust towards Russia's long-term intentions. Ukraine insists on its own military production and the protection of its weapons.
  • Territorial Matters and NATO: These are currently "put out of the bracket" and set aside for direct discussion between Presidents Zelenskyy and Trump.
• Public Opinion: Kravchuk notes that public opinion in Ukraine is highly sensitive, with widespread distrust of Russia. This distrust extends across Europe.

2. The Geneva Talks and Their Significance

• Fragile Process: The talks in Geneva are described as a "very fragile process" that began in a tense atmosphere due to leaks and discussions.
• US Engagement: It is seen as a positive step that the United States is listening to and considering Ukraine's arguments.
• Challenge of Engaging Russia: A significant challenge remains in drawing Russia to the negotiation table, as Russia is perceived as wanting "a piece of Ukraine" rather than genuine peace.
• Territorial Concessions: The idea of territorial concessions is viewed as dangerous not only by Ukraine but by the entire world order established after World War II, where changing borders by force is considered a crime.

3. European Influence and Shifting Dynamics

• European Pushback: European leaders have rallied behind Ukraine, seeking a better deal and pushing back against the initial US-Russia plan that heavily favored Russia.
• Increased European Role: Natalie Tocci, Director of the Institute of International Affairs in Rome, argues that Europe's role in influencing the search for peace has paradoxically increased, especially since the Trump administration.
  • Shift in Military Support: While the US continues crucial intelligence support, broader military support is now largely funded and procured by Europeans on behalf of Ukraine.
  • Leverage: Tocci asserts that neither the US nor Russia has the power to impose terms on Ukraine, partly due to Ukraine's own leverage and, crucially, European support.
• European Interests: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Ukraine's and Europe's interests must be upheld, meaning Ukraine should not be forced into unilateral territorial concessions and must be able to defend itself effectively.

4. Potential Scenarios and the Likelihood of Continued Conflict

• Two Emerging Scenarios:
  1. A continuation of the war.
  2. A Russian-US plan versus a European-Ukrainian plan.
• Most Likely Scenario: Tocci believes the most likely scenario is the continuation of the war, given the lack of a ceasefire on the horizon and the respective leverage of the parties.
• European Agency: There's a possibility of Europeans approaching Washington to state they can handle the situation, with the US potentially focusing on intelligence support.
• Ukraine's Choice: Ukraine, if forced to choose between dignity and severing ties with its biggest ally, would choose dignity. This choice is not a "suicide mission" as they have cards to play.
• Europe Speaking with One Voice: A "coalition of the willing," including most European countries, Canada, and Japan, has endorsed a European peace framework. This coalition is shouldering most of the responsibility and is expected to continue doing so as Trump disengages.

5. Critiques of the Russian Plan and the Importance of Security Guarantees

• Non-Starter Plan: The 28-point Russian plan is considered a "non-starter" primarily due to:
  • Territorial Concessions: The potential for Ukraine to lose territory.
  • Harming Ukrainian Arming: The plan's implications for Ukraine's defense capabilities.
• Ukraine's First Security Guarantee: Ukraine's own defense forces are considered its primary security guarantee.
• Role of Europeans: The Russian plan also rules out any potential role for Europeans in discussions.
• Ambition of Reassurance Forces: While European efforts on reassurance forces could be more ambitious, they are seen as better than nothing and politically important for Ukraine to understand that European security begins with Ukraine.

6. Challenges Facing Ukraine

• Kinetic War Frozen: The active fighting appears to have paused.
• Army Fatigue and Desertion: Ukraine's army is described as tired and suffering from a desertion crisis.
• Corruption Scandal: The Ukrainian president is facing a corruption scandal.
• US Pressure: The US appears to be trying to push Ukraine to accept Russian terms.
• Resilience: Despite these challenges, Ukraine is not ready to accept peace that amounts to capitulation.

Conclusion

The discussion highlights a complex and evolving peace process for Ukraine. While a US-Russia plan emerged, it was met with strong opposition from Ukraine and Europe, who are advocating for a plan that upholds Ukrainian sovereignty, territorial integrity, and provides robust security guarantees. The increased role of Europe in providing military and political support is a significant development. However, the path to a sustainable peace remains fraught with challenges, including Russia's perceived unwillingness to negotiate in good faith and the potential for continued conflict. The emphasis is on Ukraine's right to self-determination and the critical importance of its own defense capabilities as a primary security guarantee.