Russia-Ukraine analyst: Russia 'has started to lose' the war in Ukraine | DW News

Key Concepts

• Russia's stalled military progress in Ukraine
• The widening gap between Russia's political aims and military capacity
• Ukraine's technological advantages, particularly in drone warfare
• The potential for political instability in Russia due to the prolonged war
• The significance of the Prigozhin mutiny as a sign of discontent
• The unsustainability of Putin's war narrative in the long term

Russia's Stalled Military Progress and Political Aims

The Kremlin announced President Putin's visit to the Kursk region, his first since Russia claimed its recapture from Ukrainian forces. Michael Kimage, a history professor, argues that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. He emphasizes that while Putin will continue to portray the war as a success, there's a growing disconnect between Russia's political goals (control over Ukraine) and its actual military capabilities.

• Specific Detail: Russia occupies approximately 19% of Ukrainian territory, a slow rate of advance considering the war's duration.
• Key Argument: Russia needs to capture major Ukrainian cities to achieve its political objectives, which it has failed to do.
• Example: Russia has not been able to capture Kharkiv, a city near the Russian border.

Ukraine's Strengths and Western Support

Despite the difficulties Ukraine faces, including manpower shortages and economic challenges, Kimage highlights Ukraine's increasing technological advantages, especially in drone warfare, and growing European support.

• Specific Detail: Ukraine is making significant technological advancements, particularly with drone warfare.
• Key Argument: While Ukraine is not close to winning, its capabilities are strengthening, making a significant Russian breakthrough less likely.

The Unsustainability of Putin's War Narrative

Kimage argues that Putin's control over the war narrative will face challenges as the Russian economy worsens and the war drags on. He draws parallels to historical examples of countries facing political difficulties due to long, inconclusive wars.

• Key Argument: Putin is selling a war to the Russian population that Russia cannot win in the long term.
• Historical Analogy: Kimage references Syria under Bashar al-Assad as an example of seemingly absolute power that can break apart quickly.

The Prigozhin Mutiny as a Symptom of Discontent

The Prigozhin mutiny in June-July 2023 is presented as a significant event, highlighting discontent within the Russian military. While the mutiny was quelled, Kimage argues that it was a meaningful event that revealed underlying tensions.

• Specific Detail: The mutiny was led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had previously been close to Putin.
• Key Argument: The mutiny, though unsuccessful, indicates discontent at the front lines, which may still be present.

Potential for Political Instability in Russia

Kimage suggests that despite Putin's seemingly absolute power, political difficulties could arise in Russia due to the prolonged war and its economic consequences.

• Key Argument: Countries that fight long, inconclusive wars often encounter political difficulties.
• Caveat: Kimage acknowledges that predicting the future is difficult and that Russia's problems are less visible than Ukraine's.

Conclusion

The interview concludes with Kimage reiterating his belief that Putin's war in Ukraine is a losing proposition in the long term, despite the current stalemate. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing Russia's internal problems, even though they are less visible than Ukraine's.