Russia: Trump has ‘promised us Ukrainian territory’ | Ukraine: The Latest

Ukraine, The Latest - December 17th, 2023: Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

• Russian Military Operations: Drone strikes within Russia, submarine damage, ongoing fighting in Kupiansk, Avdiivka, and other areas.
• Western Aid to Ukraine: Discussions surrounding frozen Russian assets, US aid package uncertainty, European financial contributions.
• Negotiations & Political Landscape: Shifting US position, potential concessions, internal Ukrainian politics, Russian maximalist demands.
• Russian Intentions & Capabilities: Assessment of Russia’s strategic goals, military readiness, and hybrid warfare tactics.
• Security Concerns: Increased threat perception from Russia, potential for wider conflict, NATO preparedness.

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I. Military Developments & Ukrainian Strikes

The broadcast began with a focus on recent Ukrainian military actions. Specifically, a drone strike on the Slavansk oil refinery in the Krasnodar region (approximately 100km east of the Kerch Bridge) caused a fire, despite Russian claims of only minor damage to power lines affecting 38,000 people. Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed the strike, assessing the extent of damage. A separate drone attack was reported in Saratov Oblast, hundreds of kilometers northeast of Ukraine, bordering Kazakhstan.

Daily Russian casualties were reported at 1,730, a higher number than recent figures, potentially linked to the intense fighting in the Kupiansk area. While Ukraine is pushing Russian forces back in Kupiansk, the advance has slowed after an initial 48-hour gain. Ukrainian forces control approximately 90% of Kupiansk, though Moscow disputes this claim. Heavy fighting continues in Sievierodonetsk and Bakhmut, with Ukraine regaining 16 square kilometers north of Bakhmut.

Over the past 24 hours, 69 Russian drones were launched, with approximately 30-32 reaching their targets. Kyiv was hit, damaging two residential buildings in the Vyshkiv district, though no casualties were reported. Glide bombs struck Zaporizhzhia, injuring at least 26 people.

The attack on a Russian Kilo-class submarine in Novorossiysk remains a point of contention. Russia showed footage of the submarine, but crucially omitted the stern, where the blast occurred. Open-source intelligence suggests the submarine has not moved, indicating significant damage. Following the attack, Russia’s Black Sea fleet now has only two submarines capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. The successful hacking of a surveillance camera at the Novorossiysk naval base to coordinate the strike was highlighted as a significant intelligence and operational achievement, likened to a “spiderweb” operation. A Turkish F-16 shot down an out-of-control drone over the Black Sea. Swedish Navy identified uniformed Russian military personnel aboard oil tankers operating in the Baltic Sea, potentially linked to private security companies.

II. Negotiations & US-Ukraine Relations: A Shifting Landscape

The discussion then turned to the evolving negotiations between Ukraine and the US, fueled by a recent article in Vanity Fair. The US, through Jared Kushner and Steve Witkov, appears to be pushing for territorial concessions from Ukraine as part of a peace settlement, specifically regarding areas with historical Russian populations. Zelenskyy has reportedly resisted these demands, recognizing the political impossibility of ceding territory.

The US is offering security guarantees akin to Article 5, but the credibility of these guarantees is questioned given the potential for a Trump administration to not honor them. The article reveals a disconnect between US negotiators and the realities on the ground, with Kushner and Witkov seemingly viewing the conflict as a real estate transaction.

The European position is more aligned with Ukraine’s, resisting territorial concessions. A crucial EU summit is scheduled to discuss a potential €210 billion loan to Ukraine, funded by frozen Russian assets. Belgium, holding the largest share of these assets (€185 billion), is hesitant, as are Italy, citing legal and financial concerns. The US wants to retain access to these assets for post-war investment. The EU has agreed to immobilize the assets but using them for direct funding is proving contentious. Russia has filed a lawsuit seeking $229 billion in damages from Euroclear in an attempt to block the proposal.

III. Russian Position & Propaganda

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated the US has promised Russia territorial concessions as part of a peace deal. Kremlin spokesman Peskov rejected any Christmas truce, despite past instances of temporary ceasefires for political purposes. Russian media continues to deny Ukrainian gains and portray the conflict as a defense against Western aggression. A Russian newspaper questioned the size of the Ukrainian army in proposed peace plans, suggesting a lack of genuine demilitarization. The Kremlin dismisses the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, implying the war is about something else entirely. Russian sources claim Kupiansk is still under Russian control, despite evidence to the contrary.

IV. Escalating Threat & Western Preparedness

Dom Nichols highlighted a growing concern about Russia’s increasingly aggressive posture and the need for Western preparedness. He referenced a thread by Ruth Demont, arguing that Russia views the West as an existential threat and that this perception drives its actions. Despite recent setbacks, Russia continues to engage in sabotage and espionage operations in the West, often utilizing amateur operatives. The potential for a wider conflict is increasing, and Western nations must recognize this reality and strengthen their defenses. The discussion referenced a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on how Europe can defend itself with less reliance on the US.

V. Internal Ukrainian Dynamics & Future Outlook

Michael Weiss provided insights into the internal Ukrainian political landscape. The resignation of Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, due to corruption allegations, has created a power vacuum. While Yermak has formally resigned, he is believed to still wield significant influence. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief, remains a popular figure and potential rival to Zelenskyy.

Weiss emphasized that Ukraine is strategically engaging in negotiations to appease the US and prevent a unilateral deal with Russia, even if it means making concessions that are politically difficult. He highlighted the disconnect between the US negotiators’ understanding of the conflict and the realities on the ground. He also pointed out the internal divisions within the US government, particularly between isolationist and interventionist factions.

VI. Concluding Remarks & Warnings

The broadcast concluded with a stark warning about the escalating threat from Russia and the need for Western unity and preparedness. The speakers emphasized that Russia views the West as an enemy and is actively working to undermine it. They urged Western nations to abandon complacency and take concrete steps to defend themselves. The final quote, from French Senator Claude Malhur, underscored the gravity of the situation: “If Ukraine loses the war, Europe will find itself in direct confrontation with Russia and under the worst possible conditions.”

Technical Terms & Concepts:

• Kilo-class submarine: A class of diesel-electric attack submarines operated by the Russian Navy.
• Kalibr cruise missiles: Russian long-range precision-guided missiles.
• Hybrid Warfare: The use of a combination of conventional and unconventional tactics, including disinformation, cyberattacks, and economic pressure.
• GRU: Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate, a military intelligence agency.
• Article 5: The collective defense clause of the NATO treaty, stating that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
• Shadow Fleet: A network of tankers used to circumvent sanctions and transport Russian oil.
• DEX: Defensive fortifications in eastern Ukraine.
• MAGA: "Make America Great Again," a political movement associated with Donald Trump.
• Steinmeier Formula: A proposed plan for resolving the conflict in Donbas, involving granting special status to the region.
• Yolta: A reference to the Yalta Conference, a post-World War II meeting between Allied leaders that shaped the geopolitical landscape of Europe.

This summary aims to provide a detailed and specific account of the broadcast, preserving the original language and technical precision of the transcript.