Russia still ‘not winning’ war against Ukraine despite capturing Pokrovsk

Key Concepts

• Gaza Conflict: Hamas's refusal to disarm, the proposed international stabilization force, and the potential for renewed Israeli military action.
• Ukraine War: Russia's claims of capturing Proosk, the reality of the battlefield situation, Russian casualties, the Institute for the Study of War's assessment of the conflict's duration, Russian propaganda narratives, and the need for offensive weapons for Ukraine.
• Geopolitical Strategy: Putin's long-term strategy to wear down Western resolve, the role of false narratives in influencing public opinion and policy, and the potential for future negotiations.

Gaza Conflict Update

Hamas's Stance and International Intervention: General Jack Keane states that Hamas has "no intention to disarm or to give up governance." This is a core challenge in the ongoing conflict. The United States is proposing the establishment of an "international stabilization force" through the UN Security Council. However, a significant hurdle is the willingness of other countries to undertake the mission of disarming Hamas. General Keane's informal discussions suggest a lack of international appetite for this specific task.

Consequences of Non-Disarmament: If Hamas is not disarmed, the potential outcome is a return to military action. General Keane references a past announcement by President Trump, who stated that if Hamas did not disarm and relinquish governance, he would support Israel and the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) in "going back in to finish Hamas once and for all." The current difficulty is that a large portion of the population has returned to Gaza City, where Hamas is concentrated, making any such operation complex. General Keane anticipates that "we have some of this war left to go before Hamas is finished."

Israel's Role: The current situation leaves Israel as "the only country in the world that seems to have the appetite and the ability to disarm Hamas."

Ukraine War Update

Russia's Claims vs. Battlefield Reality: Russia is reportedly claiming to have "virtually captured the critical city of Proosk" and has allegedly deployed "a huge army, 100,000 men" for this objective. General Keane refutes this narrative, stating, "It's not as Russia describes it." He highlights that Russia has been attempting this for "almost two years" and is suffering "over a thousand casualties a day." The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Russia is "not winning this war" and cannot take the "entire Donbas region." ISW estimates this would take Russia "three to four years."

Russian Propaganda and False Narratives: A significant concern raised by General Keane is Russia's creation of "false narrative[s]" that are often amplified by the media. He identifies two primary narratives:

1. Justification for the War: Russia falsely claims that eastern Ukraine and NATO are encroaching on Russia. General Keane counters this by stating that countries formerly part of the Soviet Union "want no part of Russia and they want to be a part of NATO to protect them from Russia not to invade."
2. Russia's Progress in the War: Russia claims it is winning, which General Keane asserts is "just not true." While Ukraine may not currently have the capability to drive Russia out, Russia is not expected to capture the entire Donbas region soon. The "so-called taking of Proosk" is described as the infiltration of "infantry small squads" into certain parts of the city, indicating a "false narrative."

Putin's Strategy and Motivation: General Keane believes that Vladimir Putin feels "no significant pressure in his mind to stop the war" because he believes he can "continue this for another year or two." While acknowledging that Putin will likely not make significant progress and will incur "significant losses," his strategy is to "wear down President Trump, wear down the United States, and do the same with the Europeans." Furthermore, Putin aims to pressure Ukrainian President Zelenskyy into making concessions by "escalating the war on the Ukrainian people," specifically through actions that result in the killing of "women and children and other people who are not involved in the war."

Recommendations for Ukraine: General Keane advocates for providing Ukraine with "all the offensive weapons that we have" to equip them with the "capability to take out significant deep targets." These targets are identified as the "manufacturing center" for killer drones and the "bombers that are delivering the glide bombs and the cruise missiles that are killing so many of the Ukrainian people."

Future Outlook and Negotiations: The war is expected to continue in its current state. General Keane hopes that European leadership and President Trump will demonstrate "steadfastness." He anticipates that Putin will eventually "wave a flag and say, 'I'd like to go back to the negotiating table.'" However, he believes that President Trump will not agree to negotiations unless he receives a prior commitment from Putin for a ceasefire.

Geopolitical Strategy and Policy Shift

President Trump's Evolving Stance: The interviewer, Andrew, notes a significant shift in President Trump's approach, describing it as a "180 degree turn" from previously attacking Ukraine and demanding its surrender to now providing intelligence for long-range strikes on Russian oil facilities. While Tomahawk missiles have not yet been provided, there is hope that this decision is imminent. General Keane acknowledges his behind-the-scenes efforts to guide the President's policy.

Conclusion

The discussion highlights the complex and challenging situations in both Gaza and Ukraine. In Gaza, the immediate concern is Hamas's unwillingness to disarm, leading to a potential need for continued Israeli military action. In Ukraine, Russia is employing propaganda to mask its battlefield struggles and high casualties, while pursuing a long-term strategy to exhaust Western resolve. General Keane emphasizes the critical need for Ukraine to receive offensive weapons to counter Russian attacks and suggests that future negotiations will likely hinge on a prior ceasefire agreement, with President Trump playing a key role in shaping this outcome.