Russia’s new ‘dandelion’ tank armour & how Iran regime collapse would impact Ukraine

Key Concepts

• Escalating Conflict & Technological Advancements: Russia continues attacks on Ukraine, while Ukraine responds with strikes inside Russia, utilizing evolving military technologies like Iranian-derived drones and innovative defensive measures.
• International Support & Diplomacy: Western aid continues, with Germany providing advanced infantry vehicles and discussions underway for a large-scale reconstruction deal. Potential shifts in alliances are emerging, notably with Armenia.
• War Crimes & Human Rights Violations: The systematic indoctrination and militarization of Ukrainian children in occupied territories and Russia are being investigated as potential crimes against humanity.
• Sanctions Evasion & Maritime Interdiction: The UK is considering utilizing existing legislation to allow its military to board and detain vessels suspected of circumventing sanctions, targeting “shadow fleets” of oil tankers.
• Re-evaluation of Violence Trends: Recent events challenge the notion of a long-term decline in global violence, suggesting that when conflict occurs, it may be on a larger and more devastating scale.

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Military Situation & Technological Developments (January 12th, 3 years & 324 days into the full-scale invasion)

Russia continues to target Ukrainian cities, notably Kyiv, with drone and missile strikes, leaving 1,000 buildings without heat. South Korea has provided emergency generators. Attacks also impacted the Zaparisia and Dnipro regions, with 821 strikes on 27 settlements in Zaparisia Oblast between Saturday and Sunday. Ukraine’s air force downed 125 of 154 drones launched during the same period. Despite ongoing Russian offensive efforts across all sectors, minimal territorial change has been observed. Increased activity is noted southeast of Kupiansk, in Zaparisia Oblast, and around Chasiv Yar, a contested town Russia previously claimed to have captured. Ukrainian forces report killing 62 Russian troops, downing 425 drones, and destroying equipment in the Chasiv Yar area in the past week.

Ukraine is escalating operations inside Russia, targeting oil depots (Zutskaya in the Vular region, 300km east of Russia) and oil drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea (belonging to Lukoil). A power plant in Nova Kask, Rostov Oblast, was also reportedly attacked. Russia acknowledges these attacks, downplaying the damage, reporting only 13 drones downed nationwide. Russia is deploying new military equipment, including the “Garan 5” strike drone, derived from Iranian designs (specifically the Kar drone), with a 90kg warhead and a 1,000km range, and testing it for air-to-air combat with potential MANPADS integration. They are also fielding “dandelion tanks” – tanks covered in metal rods designed to protect against drone attacks.

International Aid & Political Shifts

Germany is supplying Ukraine with the Lynx KF-41 infantry fighting vehicle, with an initial order of five vehicles costing approximately €50 million (roughly €10 million per vehicle), comparable to modern US Striker vehicles. Discussions are underway for a “prosperity deal” between Ukraine and the US, to be finalized at the World Economic Forum in Davos, focusing on post-war reconstruction with an estimated $800 billion needed over a decade. Armenia is reportedly reaching out to the US administration, signaling a potential shift away from reliance on Russia.

War Crimes & Human Rights

The Kyiv Independent War Crimes Investigations Unit is documenting the ongoing indoctrination and militarization of Ukrainian children in occupied territories and Russia, including forced participation in military training camps and the removal of Ukrainian language and culture from education. This is being investigated as a potential crime against humanity. Examples include the case of Oxana, a 16-year-old forced into a Russian military training camp, and Anatoli Yushko, a former youth army member who became a Russian military instructor. Approximately 1.6 million children remain in occupied territories, with 600,000 school children affected. Russia’s indoctrination system involves curriculum changes and the introduction of pro-Russian youth organizations like the “Movement of the First.”

Sanctions & Maritime Security

The UK government is considering utilizing the British Sanctions and Money Laundering Act of 2018 to allow the British military to board and detain vessels belonging to “shadow fleets” – oil tankers operating under false flags to bypass sanctions. This initiative, described as a “ramping up of action,” is likely developed in consultation with the US and follows the recent US Coast Guard seizure of the Marinara tanker (formerly Bella 1), with minor aerial overwatch support from the UK’s RFA Tideforce.

Broader Context & Re-evaluation of Violence

The discussion referenced Steven Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature, which argues for a long-term decline in global violence. However, it was suggested that when violence does resurface, it tends to be on a significantly larger scale, potentially challenging Pinker’s thesis. This raised the question of whether decreasing overall violence masks an increasing proportion of civilian casualties in modern military conflicts.

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Conclusion:

The situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, characterized by continued Russian aggression, Ukrainian resilience, and evolving military technologies. International support is crucial, but potential shifts in alliances and the complexities of sanctions evasion present ongoing challenges. The documented war crimes, particularly the systematic indoctrination of Ukrainian children, underscore the long-term consequences of the conflict. Furthermore, the discussion regarding global violence trends suggests a need to critically assess the narrative of declining conflict, acknowledging the potential for increased devastation when violence does erupt.