Russia claims capture of two Ukrainian towns | DW News

Key Concepts

• Territorial Claims: Russia’s claims of capturing Mirnograd (Dimitro) and Julia (Hulia) in eastern Ukraine.
• Information Verification: The difficulty in independently verifying battlefield information from both sides of the conflict.
• Geolocating Footage: The process of confirming the location of video footage using satellite imagery and geographical features.
• Logistical Hubs: The strategic importance of cities like Mirnograd (Dimitro) as supply and transport centers for military operations.
• Negotiating Positions: How battlefield successes and failures can influence diplomatic talks, specifically the upcoming meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump.
• Russian Strategy: Putin’s perceived long-term goals in Ukraine, including territorial control and regime change.
• Demographic Advantage: Russia’s reliance on its larger population size as a strategic asset in the conflict.
• Special Military Operation: Russia’s official term for its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia Claims Gains Amidst Zelenskyy-Trump Meeting Preparations

Ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meeting with US President Donald Trump, the Kremlin has asserted territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, specifically claiming control of the towns of Mirnograd (referred to by Russia as Dimitro) in the Donetsk region and Julia (Hulia) in the Zaporizhzhia region. This development appears to be an attempt to increase pressure on Ukraine and demonstrate continued military progress. However, independent verification of these claims remains challenging.

Verification Challenges and Evidence

The Russian Defense Ministry released footage purportedly showing Russian flags in Mirnograd. While independent experts were able to confirm the location of the footage by matching it to satellite imagery and road layouts, the date of the video remains unverified. This highlights the significant difficulty in obtaining reliable information from the front lines, as both sides present conflicting accounts. Ukraine has outright rejected Russia’s claims, stating they are “not supported by facts,” acknowledging a difficult situation but maintaining that both cities are still under Ukrainian defense. Further footage released allegedly shows Ukrainian military vehicles being hit in Julia, but again, independent confirmation is lacking.

Military Analysis: Situation on the Ground

Military analyst Marina Myron from King’s College, London, explained the complexities of verifying information, citing the lack of independent mappers and the difficulty in dating footage. She stated that Mirnograd is currently surrounded by Russian forces, with Ukrainian troops attempting to establish a breakout corridor. Myron emphasized that even if not fully captured, the situation in Mirnograd is “very dire” due to its importance as a logistical hub for Ukrainian forces. She also noted that Julia is “very close to being taken” by Russian forces, though this is disputed by Ukraine. Myron pointed out that Ukraine may be hesitant to confirm Russian advances given the political context of the upcoming meeting with President Trump. As she stated, “it wouldn't be favorable for Ukraine to confirm Russian advances there.”

Impact on Zelenskyy-Trump Talks

The potential impact of Russian battlefield successes on the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting was discussed. Myron suggested Zelenskyy could leverage the situation to argue for increased US aid, pointing to the €90 billion already approved by European nations. He could frame the Russian advances as a justification for more military equipment. However, she also acknowledged the possibility that Trump could use the situation to argue that Ukraine has no chance of winning and should accept Russian demands. The outcome, she emphasized, will depend on the diplomatic skills of the Ukrainian side. The Russian Ministry of Defense’s swift announcement of the alleged captures of Mirnograd and Julia was interpreted as a deliberate attempt to strengthen Russia’s negotiating position and demonstrate its commitment to achieving its political aims through military force.

Putin’s Stance and Long-Term Strategy

Prior to the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin released a video in military uniform, warning that Russia is prepared to escalate the fighting. He expressed little interest in Zelenskyy’s offer to demilitarize the Donbas region, stating, “our interest in the offer of the Ukrainian military formations withdrawing from the territories they currently occupy is practically zero.” He asserted that Russia will achieve its objectives “by military means” if a peaceful resolution cannot be reached.

DW Russia analyst Konstantin Eggert characterized Putin’s comments as typical, highlighting his disregard for Zelenskyy’s proposals and insistence on continued warfare. Eggert believes Putin does not genuinely seek to end the war, and his strategy is based on Russia’s demographic advantage – its significantly larger population compared to Ukraine. He also suggested Putin believes the US will not provide Ukraine with the decisive weaponry needed to effectively counter Russian forces. Eggert stated Putin’s ultimate goal is “a change of government in Kiev and basically turning Ukraine into a Russian protectorate uh with a pliant government in Kiev.”

Prospects for Negotiation

Eggert expressed skepticism that Trump can convince Putin to reach an agreement, citing a previous unsuccessful attempt at diplomacy in Anchorage in August. He believes Zelenskyy’s primary achievement in meeting with Trump will be to present himself as a reasonable and pragmatic leader, backed by European allies. However, Eggert maintains that Putin is confident in his position and intends to continue the war, believing he can “grab more and more territory and essentially wear Ukraine down.” He concluded that Putin’s strategy is based on stubbornness and a belief in Russia’s ability to achieve its objectives through military force.

Conclusion

The situation in eastern Ukraine remains fluid and difficult to verify. Russia’s claims of territorial gains, while intended to strengthen its negotiating position ahead of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, are met with skepticism and denial from Ukraine. Analysts suggest Putin is not genuinely interested in a negotiated settlement and is pursuing a long-term strategy aimed at regime change in Kyiv and the establishment of a Russian-controlled Ukraine. The outcome of the upcoming talks will likely depend on Zelenskyy’s ability to persuade Trump to provide increased aid and support, while acknowledging the significant challenges posed by Putin’s unwavering stance.