Russia claims capture of Pokrovsk ahead of Witkoff talks in Moscow | DW News

Key Concepts

• Capture of Pokrovsk: Russian claim of taking control of a strategically important city in the Donbas region.
• 28-Point Peace Plan: An amended version of a peace proposal being discussed, with Ukraine tentatively backing the revised version.
• Shuttle Diplomacy: Diplomatic efforts involving multiple parties to resolve the conflict.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Approximately $300 billion of Russian money held in Europe, a potential financial leverage point.
• European Allies' Role: The involvement and influence of European countries in peace negotiations and financial support for Ukraine.
• Strategic Importance: The military and logistical value of locations like Pokrovsk.
• Logistics Hub: A center for the movement and storage of supplies and equipment.
• Symbolic Importance: The significance of a location beyond its practical utility.
• Capitulation: Surrender or yielding to demands.
• Security Guarantees: Assurances of protection and safety.

Russian Claim of Pokrovsk Capture and its Strategic Implications

Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that his forces have captured the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, stating this will resolve key tasks in his offensive. Footage released by Russia's defense ministry purports to show troops taking control of the city. Pokrovsk is located in the eastern Donbas region and has been a heavily targeted area by Russian troops. Last week, Ukraine had sent reinforcements, including special forces, to defend the city. The strategic importance of Pokrovsk lies in its role as a road and rail hub. Ukrainian authorities have not yet officially commented on the claim.

Analysis of the Claim's Timing

Yuri Rashto, former Moscow bureau chief for DW, suggests that the timing of Russia's claim regarding Pokrovsk's capture is likely linked to the visit of US special envoy Steve Whit to Moscow. Rashto posits that the Kremlin aims to convey a message of battlefield success to Washington, potentially to persuade the US that concessions to Ukraine are futile as Russia intends to achieve its objectives militarily. However, he emphasizes that Ukraine has not surrendered and President Putin cannot yet claim victory, despite needing "success stories" and an exit strategy. The unchanged objectives for Russia remain control of the Donbas region and the removal of President Zelenskyy from power.

Validity and Impact of the Pokrovsk Claim

Mario Müller, DW correspondent in Kyiv, notes that President Zelenskyy had previously denied the full capture of Pokrovsk, stating that fighting was still ongoing. While independent verification is difficult, maps run by "Deep State," a group of Ukrainian military experts, suggest that most of the city is now under Russian control, though not entirely. Pokrovsk holds symbolic importance for Ukrainians and was a critical logistics hub situated at crossroads to other key cities in the Donbas region. The fear among Ukrainians is that its capture could facilitate further Russian advances into the region. Ukraine had heavily invested in defending Pokrovsk, deploying special forces. The Russians are expected to present this as a victory, while Ukrainians might counter by highlighting the year of heavy fighting it allegedly took to capture the city.

Shuttle Diplomacy and Peace Plan Negotiations

Shuttle diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine is ongoing, with US special envoy Steve Whit expected to meet with President Vladimir Putin. Whit will present an amended version of the original 28-point peace plan, which Ukraine has tentatively backed. The next move is now considered to be Russia's.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Diplomatic Efforts

Ahead of Whit's trip to Moscow, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Paris to rally support from European allies. Speaking with French President Emmanuel Macron, Zelenskyy warned against rewarding Russia for its invasion. This meeting followed talks in Miami between Ukraine and the United States, where negotiators revised an earlier 28-point plan that had been criticized as too favorable to Russia.

European Stance on the Conflict

President Macron stated that Moscow has shown no sign of ending its aggression and stressed that only Ukraine can decide the fate of its own territory. He affirmed continued support for all peace efforts while also supporting Ukraine's resistance and maintaining sanctions against Russia, citing coherence and security concerns.

Russian Perspective on Peace Agreements

Yuri Rashto believes that Putin is not seeking a symbolic event but rather a pragmatic outcome. He suggests that a part of Trump's peace plan, specifically the use of Russia's frozen assets to rebuild Ukraine, might appeal to Putin. Rashto argues that this could work in Putin's favor due to the uncertainty of the war's duration and cost, and the fact that Russia's $300 billion in frozen assets are already inaccessible until Ukraine is compensated. A peace plan might offer Putin a chance to recover at least a portion of these funds, which he considers a significant incentive.

Trust and European Involvement in Negotiations

Ukrainian Doubts Regarding US Intentions

Marielle Müller highlights a lack of trust in the Americans from a Ukrainian perspective, stemming from the initial draft of the US peace plan, which was perceived as a "Russian wish list" and akin to capitulation. Leaked phone calls between Whit and Russian officials, where Whit allegedly coached the Russian advisor on how to influence Trump, have further fueled these doubts. Despite these concerns, Zelenskyy and his team will continue to engage with the Americans, as they cannot afford to lose a strategic partner providing weapons and intelligence.

European Allies Sidelined in US-Led Talks

A report indicates that European allies have been largely excluded from US-led talks concerning the peace deal. Less than half of the EU's senior defense ministers attended a meeting in Brussels, with many sending junior representatives. While the EU supports Ukraine's demands not to cede land or weaken its army, their position is perceived as weakened. There is a concern that pressure will be placed on Ukraine to make concessions, despite Russia being the aggressor.

European Financial Contributions and Influence

The Dutch minister acknowledged conversations and coordination with the US, suggesting that European concerns have been taken seriously. However, the report notes the absence of Belgium's minister, whose country is under pressure for refusing to release approximately 140 billion euros of Russian assets held in Brussels. As EU funding options for Ukraine dwindle, there is a significant concern among EU countries about shouldering the financial burden of rebuilding Ukraine without having had a say in the peace deal's terms. The principle of "nothing about the Europeans without the Europeans" is emphasized, with a call for greater involvement in achieving a better peace agreement. Finding a way back into the diplomatic inner circle with the US is a priority for EU countries.

Financial Leverage and European Support

The Role of Frozen Russian Assets

Yuri Rashto points out that while the Kremlin claims to disregard the EU, Moscow's ties are with the US. However, the reality is that a significant portion of Russia's $300 billion in frozen assets, approximately $200 billion, is held within the EU, with $140 billion in Belgium. Although European leaders are debating the use of these funds, they are unlikely to be returned to Putin. Rashto suggests this money could become a significant financial pressure point, even if not politically.

Ukraine's Increased Reliance on European Partners

Marielle Müller states that after losing trust in the Americans, Ukraine is now more dependent on its European partners. Despite being sidelined in negotiations, Europeans are now viewed as Ukraine's true advocates. President Zelenskyy's best course of action is to seek maximum military support, aid, and strong security guarantees from European nations, which Ukraine may not receive from the Americans and which cannot be traded away in backdoor negotiations without Ukraine's consent.