Russia accused of using chemical weapons in Ukraine | BBC News

BBC Security Brief Summary: Russia's Chemical Weapon Use & US Weapon Shipments to Ukraine

Key Concepts: Chemical weapons (choking agents, blister agents, blood agents, nerve agents), chloropicrine, quadcopter drones, Chemical Weapons Convention, Patriot missile system (phased array tracking radar intercept on target), hypersonic missiles, Kinszel missile, Areshnik missile, Shahed 136 drone, glide bombs (Fab 3000), ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System), HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System).

Russia's Use of Chemical Weapons in Ukraine

• Alarming Reports: Europe's top diplomat, Kaakalis, raised concerns about Russia's increasing use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, citing German and Dutch intelligence reports.
• Frequency of Use: The reports indicate that Moscow has used chemical weapons at least 9,000 times since the start of the invasion.
• Types of Chemical Weapons:
  • Four categories: choking agents, blister agents, blood agents, and nerve agents.
  • Chloropicrine: Identified as a chemical agent being used extensively by Russia. It falls under the choking agent category and its use dates back to World War I. It irritates the nose, throat, and lungs, and can be lethal in high concentrations, especially in enclosed spaces.
• Delivery Method: Russia is using quadcopter-style drones to drop chloropicrine onto Ukrainian troops in trenches.
• Impact and Fatalities:
  • The Ukrainian Defense Ministry attributes three deaths of Ukrainian soldiers directly to these chemical weapons.
  • Indirect fatalities are also a concern, as the chemical weapons smoke Ukrainian forces out of trenches, making them vulnerable to conventional weapons.
• International Response: The UK contributed £400,000 to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons to enhance Ukraine's resilience against these attacks, including equipment, training, and expertise.
• Russia's Obligations: Russia is a signatory of the Chemical Weapons Convention, which came into play in 1997 and currently has 193 state parties.
• Russian Stockpiles: According to the Arms Control Association, Russia possesses the largest stockpiles of chemical weapons in the world, approximately 40,000 tons.
• Ukraine's Response: Ukrainian intelligence services are reportedly targeting high-value leadership in Russia.
  • General Eagle Kiralov: Head of the Russian military's biological and chemical weapons unit, was killed along with his deputy in Moscow in December 2024. A source inside Ukrainian security services claimed they were war criminals and a legitimate target.

US Weapon Shipments to Ukraine and the Patriot Missile System

• Trump Administration's Policy Shift: The Trump administration is reportedly changing its policy on Ukraine, planning to provide weapons, including the Patriot missile system, paid for by NATO.
• Framework: NATO countries will provide Ukraine with Patriot batteries, and the US will sell replacement Patriot battery missile systems to those NATO countries. This aligns with Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy, benefiting the US defense industrial base.
• Patriot Missile System:
  • Definition: Patriot stands for phased array tracking radar intercept on target.
  • Components: Each battery carries around six to eight missile launchers, capable of carrying 16 interceptors.
  • Capabilities: Long-range, can engage multiple targets, and uses a hit-to-kill mechanism that targets the warhead of ballistic missiles.
  • Limitations:
    • Setup time: 30 minutes.
    • Mobility: Towing speed of just over 55 kilometers per hour.
• Effectiveness Against Hypersonic Missiles:
  • Hypersonic missiles can travel faster than Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound), and in some cases, up to Mach 20.
  • Kinszel Missile: An earlier evolution of hypersonic missiles, launched from a MiG-31 Foxbat. There have been claims that a Patriot missile battery shot down a Russian Kinszel hypersonic missile in 2023.
  • Areshnik Missile: A more developed hypersonic missile with six warheads and six submunitions per warhead (36 in total). Its effectiveness against the Patriot is questionable.
• Cost: Each Patriot missile battery costs approximately $1 billion, and each missile is $3.3 million. Only around 650 are made per year.
• Limitations on Supply: If the Patriot missile system forms part of Trump's proposed Golden Dome defense missile system, the demand from NATO and non-NATO countries using the Patriot will impose limitations on Ukraine due to production capacity.
• Effectiveness Against Drones: Later models of the Patriot are effective against ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and the latest drones.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Russia is using thousands of drones to attack Ukraine.
  • Shahed 136: An Iranian-made drone (called Geran-2 when produced in Russia) that travels at around 120 mph. It has a lower radar section and is relatively easy to shoot down.
  • Overwhelming Numbers: Putin's strategy involves overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses with numbers of drones.
  • Cost Exchange Ratio: One Shahed drone costs a hundredth of the price of a Patriot interceptor ($3.3 million).
  • Scale of Attacks: In June alone, Russia launched 5,000 Shahed-style drones on Ukraine, including over 700 in one night. The cost exchange ratio is untenable and unrealistic.
• Glide Bombs:
  • Extensively used by Russia, causing terror among the Ukrainian population.
  • Russia launched a thousand glide bombs in just one week.
  • Fab 3000: A Russian 3,000 kg (6,600 pounds) glide bomb launched from a Sukcoy 34 jet.
  • Mechanism: A conventional dumb bomb with a kit (wings and fins) and satellite guidance attached, making it more accurate and deadly.
  • Challenges in Countering: Glide bombs are hard to detect because they lack propulsion and have no heat signature, making them difficult to pick up thermally. They also have a low radar cross-section.
  • Launch Strategy: Russian jets launch glide bombs from behind the Ukrainian front lines with relative impunity.
• Wider Arms Package:
  • The Patriot missiles are primarily defensive and will not win the war for Ukraine.
  • The focus is on how to get ahead of attacks coming into Ukraine.
  • ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System): Deep strike surface-to-surface missile with a range of about 300 km. Zalinsky received approval to use these in November 2024.
  • HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System): Launcher that can carry a multitude of missiles and rockets, including ATACMS.
  • Strategic Advantage: ATACMS give Ukraine the capability to strike Russian aircraft on the ground that are being used to launch glide bombs. However, existing supplies have not been replenished.

Conclusion

The briefing highlights the concerning escalation of Russia's use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, specifically chloropicrine delivered by drones. While the US is considering providing Ukraine with Patriot missile systems, potentially funded through a NATO framework, the effectiveness of these systems against advanced threats like hypersonic missiles and the sheer volume of drones and glide bombs remains questionable. The briefing emphasizes the need for Ukraine to acquire offensive capabilities, such as ATACMS, to target the source of these attacks and disrupt Russia's ability to launch them. The cost and production limitations of the Patriot system, coupled with the overwhelming number of drones and glide bombs being deployed, present significant challenges for Ukraine's defense.