Romanian election: Hard-right nationalist candidate projected to be in lead | DW News

Key Concepts

• Hard-right nationalism
• Centrist politics
• Anti-establishment sentiment
• MAGA ideology
• EU skepticism
• Aid to Ukraine
• Social conservatism
• Inflation and war concerns
• Political entrepreneurship
• Rural vs. urban divide
• Diaspora vote

Election Results and Key Candidates

• George A. Simion: Hard-right nationalist candidate leading in the first round of the rerun presidential election. Projected to get around one-third of the vote. Positions himself as more moderate than the previous far-right candidate. Opposes aid to Ukraine. Aligns himself with Donald Trump and MAGA ideology.
• Centrist Candidates: Two candidates vying for second place and a spot in the runoff. One is described as an "establishment man" backed by center-left and center-right parties. The other is an independent, Nicușor Dan, the former mayor of Bucharest, with support in urban areas.
• Nicușor Dan: Independent centrist candidate, former mayor of Bucharest. Pro-Ukraine and warns against Simion's victory, stating it could jeopardize EU rearmament plans and aid to Ukraine.

Simion's Platform and Stances

• Opposition to Aid for Ukraine: Simion believes that providing weapons to both sides of the conflict is not beneficial for Germany, France, Romania, and Poland. He advocates for de-escalation and peace.
• Relationship with the US and EU: Simion states that Romania's security strategy is based on three pillars: EU membership, NATO membership, and a strategic partnership with the US. He wants a strong voice inside the EU, aligned with the stances of Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister of Italy.
• Economic Alliance with the EU: Simion views the EU primarily as an economic alliance and wants to enforce it to create prosperity, not poverty.
• Opposition to EU Policies: Simion opposes the EU's Green Deal policies and policies regarding cultural aspects. He emphasizes social conservatism and parental rights, opposing what he perceives as the EU Commission's interference in cultural and sexual matters. He specifically mentions concerns about gender ideology and mutilation for children.

Analysis of Simion's Appeal

• Political Entrepreneurship: Alina Mungiu-Pippidi describes Simion as a successful political entrepreneur who taps into deep tendencies from rural Romania and broader Eastern Europe.
• Shared Values with Eastern Europe: Simion appeals to socially conservative values and a certain parochialism prevalent in rural Eastern Europe.
• Connecting with MAGA: Simion successfully connects with MAGA in the United States, capitalizing on a window of opportunity that opened after November.
• Ineptitude of Government Parties: Mungiu-Pippidi argues that Simion's success is also due to the ineptitude of Romanian government parties, which relied on secret services and media control instead of addressing the needs of the population.
• Social Media Influence: Public opinion has shifted to social media, where various groups, including those linked to Russia, have promoted anti-Green Deal and anti-Ukraine aid sentiments.
• Economic Concerns: Romanian and Polish farmers are concerned about the impact of subsidized and genetically modified Ukrainian grain on the European market.

Potential Impact of Simion's Victory

• Negative Impact on EU and Romania: Mungiu-Pippidi believes that Simion's victory would be bad news for both the EU and Romania.
• Embarrassing the European Establishment: Simion is expected to create problems for the European establishment with his imagination and political activism. He is compared to Viktor Orbán, who seeks to steer Europe in a different direction.
• Impact on NATO's Eastern Flank: Valentina Susu believes that a hardline right-wing president would not have a positive effect on Romania's role on NATO's eastern flank. She notes that Simion has previously expressed opinions about leaving NATO and the European Union.

Diaspora Vote

• Importance of Diaspora Vote: The Romanian electorate residing abroad is voting massively compared to the previous election round. There has been a 300% increase in the vote of diaspora Romanian citizens.
• Historical Significance: In the last 20 years, the diaspora vote has often determined the winner in presidential elections, both in the first and second rounds.

Anti-Establishment Sentiment

• Neglected Electorate: A large part of the electorate, both in Romania and abroad, feels neglected by political parties and representatives.
• Focus on Basic Needs: Simion pays attention to this neglected electorate, addressing their concerns about meeting basic daily needs.
• Simple Solutions: Simion offers what appears to be simple solutions to their daily problems, which resonates with voters.

Conclusion

The Romanian presidential election is marked by the rise of hard-right nationalist candidate George A. Simion, who is leading in the first round. His success is attributed to a combination of factors, including his political entrepreneurship, his appeal to socially conservative values, anti-establishment sentiment, and the perceived failures of the current government. Simion's alignment with MAGA ideology and his opposition to EU policies, particularly aid to Ukraine and the Green Deal, have resonated with a segment of the population. While his victory could have negative consequences for Romania's relationship with the EU and its role in NATO, it also reflects deeper issues within Romanian society, such as economic anxieties, rural-urban divides, and a growing distrust of the political establishment. The diaspora vote will likely play a crucial role in determining the final outcome of the election.