‘Resign!’ End of days for Starmer premiership as allies turn' | The Daily T

Current Political Crisis Facing Kier Starmer & the Labour Party

Key Concepts:

• Kier Starmer: Leader of the Labour Party, currently facing internal and external pressure.
• Anna Sawa: Leader of the Scottish Labour Party, publicly called for Starmer’s resignation.
• Morgan McWeeny: Starmer’s former Chief of Staff, recently resigned.
• Peter Mandelson: Labour strategist, influential figure, linked to recent appointments and controversies.
• Wes Streeting: Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, potential leadership contender.
• Reform UK/Nigel Farage: Rising political force, causing concern for both Labour and Conservative parties.
• Internal Divisions: Significant fracturing within the Labour Party regarding Starmer’s leadership and strategy.
• PR/Communications Crisis: Ongoing issues with messaging and public perception for the Labour Party.

I. The Escalating Crisis & Sawa’s Statement

The Labour Party is experiencing a period of significant turmoil, marked by the resignation of Kier Starmer’s Chief of Staff, Morgan McWeeny, and the departure of Head of Communications, Tim Allen. This instability culminated in a surprising public statement from Anna Sawa, leader of the Scottish Labour Party, calling for Starmer’s resignation. Sawa stated her priority is protecting Scotland’s public services (NHS, schools, communities) and that continuing with Starmer’s leadership would jeopardize them for a third decade of SNP government. She emphasized her loyalty to Scotland over her friendship with Starmer, a decision she had discussed with him earlier that day, resulting in disagreement.

The timing of Sawa’s statement is particularly significant given the upcoming May local elections in Scotland. It’s believed that the Scottish parliamentary contingent within Labour is aligned with Wes Streeting and had previously discussed building momentum for a “Streeting coronation” – a push for Streeting to become leader. Both Sawa and Streeting are aligned with Peter Mandelson, adding another layer of complexity to the situation.

II. Internal Labour Dynamics & Potential Leadership Challenges

Sawa’s move has exposed deep divisions within the Labour Party. While Sawa publicly called for Starmer’s removal, several prominent figures have voiced their support for the current leader. These include David Lammy, Steve Reed (Housing Secretary), and Lord Herman, described as Starmer’s “bestie.” Darren Jones highlighted the battle for Britain as being between a modern, diverse Labour and a divisive Reform UK, suggesting a fear of being eclipsed by the latter.

This fear of Reform UK is particularly acute in Scotland, where they are seen as a greater threat than the Conservatives or the SNP. This is driving some MPs to push for Streeting’s leadership, believing he would be better positioned to challenge Nigel Farage. The situation is further complicated by the historical links between key players – Sawa and Streeting’s alignment with Mandelson, and the fact that Mandelson himself has been linked to controversies.

III. Communication Failures & Public Perception

The Labour Party is also grappling with a significant public relations crisis. Starmer claims to be “confident and upbeat,” but has struggled to articulate concrete achievements of past Labour governments, repeatedly stating they had “done many good things” without providing specific examples. This lack of clear messaging reinforces the perception of a party lacking direction.

The revolving door of communications chiefs – four during Starmer’s tenure – highlights the difficulty in effectively communicating the party’s message. Number 10 currently has four people working on PR, despite the ongoing communication failures. The departure of Tim Allen, the latest Head of Communications, is seen as a symptom of the broader instability.

IV. Analysis from Lee Kane (Former Director of Communications for Boris Johnson)

Lee Kane, former Director of Communications for Boris Johnson, provided insight into the dynamics of a prime minister facing an “end of days” scenario. He drew parallels to the fall of Boris Johnson’s premiership, noting the significance of regional leaders (like Douglas Ross in Scotland) calling for a leader’s removal. Kane described the atmosphere within Number 10 during a crisis as “surreal” and “oppressive,” emphasizing the feeling of being under intense scrutiny.

He highlighted the importance of cabinet support in weathering a crisis, recalling how support from key ministers helped Dominic Cummings survive a similar situation. Kane also pointed out Starmer’s tendency to compartmentalize his life and his strong sense of self-righteousness, which may be hindering his ability to assess the severity of the situation. He noted Starmer’s recruitment has been poor, citing the appointment of Sue Gray as an example of a misstep. Kane emphasized that a leader needs to have a clear project and narrative, something he believes Starmer currently lacks. He also observed that Starmer’s leadership style is similar to Rishi Sunak’s – decent individuals ill-suited for the political demands of the role.

V. Potential Leadership Contenders & Future Outlook

Discussion turned to potential replacements for Starmer, with odds being assessed for various candidates:

• Angelena Rayner: 9/4
• Wes Streeting: 7/2
• Ed Miliband: 8/1
• Shabana Mahmood: 12/1
• Andy Burnham: (Odds not specified)
• David Lammy: 40/1
• Harriet Harman: 50/1
• Al Kahn: (Odds not specified, described as a dark horse)

Kane identified Wes Streeting and Al Kahn as potential contenders, praising Kahn’s serious background and quiet capability. The conversation concluded with a critique of Starmer’s staged public image, exemplified by a photograph of him alone in a pub with a pint, which was perceived as inauthentic.

VI. Notable Quotes:

• Anna Sawa: “This isn't easy, and it's not without pain… But my first priority and my first loyalty is to my country, Scotland.”
• Lee Kane: “It’s almost like a game of Bookeroo. You're never quite sure which piece is going to flip the horse.” (Describing the unpredictable nature of political crises)
• Lee Kane: “If you’re not good at politics… you can’t outsource that.” (Highlighting the importance of political skill for a leader)
• Lee Kane: “K Star promised a government that would be whiter than white. His position now is untenable.”

VII. Data & Statistics:

• Four Heads of Communications have served under Kier Starmer.
• Odds were provided for potential Labour leadership contenders.

Conclusion:

Kier Starmer’s leadership is facing a critical juncture. The combination of internal dissent, communication failures, and the rising threat of Reform UK has created a volatile situation. While Starmer currently enjoys some support within the party, the lack of a clear vision and the ongoing instability raise serious questions about his long-term viability as leader. The upcoming local elections and the parliamentary Labour Party meeting will be crucial moments in determining his fate. The Labour Party is at a crossroads, and the path forward remains uncertain.