Redfin reports mass CANCELLATIONS. (30% of houses just vanished)

Key Concepts

Pending Home Sales: A measure of contract signings for existing homes, indicating future sales activity.
D-listings (Delisted Homes): Homes that sellers have removed from the market.
Foreclosures: Legal processes where a lender repossesses a property due to the borrower's failure to make mortgage payments.
Inventory: The total number of homes available for sale in a given market.
Affordability: The relationship between home prices, incomes, and mortgage rates, determining how easily people can purchase homes.
Demographics: The statistical characteristics of human populations, such as birth rates, death rates, and age distribution.
Overvaluation Rate: The extent to which current home prices exceed their long-term fair valuation based on historical data and economic factors.
Buyer Market Score: An indicator of the negotiating power of buyers in a particular market.

Housing Market Demand and Seller Behavior

Home buyer demand, as measured by contract signings, has reached its lowest point in 30 years. Data from the National Association of Realtors indicates that pending home sales in October 2025 are near record lows and have declined year-over-year. This downturn has led many sellers to withdraw their properties from the market. Redfin data shows a 28% year-over-year increase in delisted homes, as sellers opt to pull their properties rather than accept lower prices.

Foreclosure Surge and its Impact

The situation is projected to worsen for sellers in 2026, particularly in markets experiencing the highest rates of delistings, such as Washington D.C., San Jose, Dallas, Houston, and Miami. A new wave of forced sales is anticipated due to a surge in foreclosures. CBS News reports that foreclosure filings have increased for six consecutive months year-over-year, with an 18% rise as of August compared to the same period in 2024, according to property data firm Adam.

ICE Mortgage Monitor data highlights significant year-over-year increases in foreclosures in specific cities:

Houston: 88% increase
Colorado Springs: 76% increase
Other cities with significant increases: Denver, Provo (Utah), Detroit (Michigan), Augusta (Georgia), Cape Coral (Florida), Dallas, Tampa, Deltona, Knoxville, Salt Lake City, Jacksonville, Phoenix, and Spokane.

Foreclosures represent properties that sellers are compelled to sell, often at substantial price cuts, as the bank or lender becomes the owner and aims to liquidate the asset quickly. For example, a foreclosure property in Houston, initially listed for $460,000 in 2022 and later increased to $520,000, is now on the market for $349,000, close to its original mortgage amount. Houston alone has nearly 1,000 foreclosures and pre-foreclosures listed on Zillow. Similarly, Cape Coral, Florida, saw a 57% year-over-year increase in foreclosures, with a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 2200 sq ft home listed for $465,000 after a $150,000 price cut from its original $615,000 listing.

Despite these surges, the overall foreclosure rate in the US housing market remains historically low, even below pre-pandemic levels. However, this low rate, coupled with surging inventory and declining buyer demand, is presented as a concerning indicator.

Current Market Dynamics: Inventory vs. Demand

As of October 2025, inventory has risen to over 1.1 million listings, according to Realtor.com, returning to pre-pandemic norms. This represents a 15% increase in the last year and a 29% increase the year before. Meanwhile, buyer demand, measured by pending home sales, is down 27% from the long-term average. The pending sales index, which normally sits at 104, is currently at 76. Demand has also decreased by 1.3% year-over-year, despite six interest rate cuts totaling a reduction in the Fed funds rate from 5.3% in August 2024 to 4%.

Redfin reports that pending sales are down 2.1% year-over-year, while new listings are up 2%. The strategy of sellers delisting their homes in hopes of relisting in the spring or renting them out is questioned. The rental market is experiencing high vacancy rates and declining rents, making renting out a property a potentially poor alternative. Furthermore, relisting in the spring may lead to even greater inventory and competition, with prices potentially lower than they are today. This suggests that delisting may only be delaying an inevitable sale at a lower price.

Reventure App and Price Forecasts

The video promotes Reventure App as a tool for sellers to understand their local market conditions and price forecasts. For example, in Miami, price forecasts indicate a downward trend for most areas over the next year, with potential drops of 1% to 10%. In such markets, delisting a home is advised against, as prices are expected to fall further. Conversely, in markets like Chicago, where Reventure forecasts positive price growth of 8% to 10% year-over-year in certain zip codes, sellers might consider delisting and relisting later.

Long-Term Demand Issues: Demographics

A significant long-term concern for housing demand is identified as declining family formation rates and a plummeting birth rate in the US, which is at a record low. Reventure's modeling suggests that by 2032, deaths will outnumber births in America, leading to a natural population decline.

Birth Rate: Currently 1.07% of the population, a 60% drop from 1.6% in 1990.
Death Rate: Currently 0.92%, with an upward trend.

This demographic shift implies fewer people with an urgent need to buy homes, as family formation and child-rearing are primary drivers for homeownership. The stability, space, and security offered by homeownership are less sought after when families are not being formed.

Furthermore, an increasing death rate will contribute to a structural increase in housing inventory over the next 5-10 years. Freddy Mac projects that 9 million baby boomer households will age out of their homes by 2035, potentially adding 9 million vacant units to the market. This trend is expected to gain momentum in the late 2020s and mid-2030s.

Affordability Crisis and Buyer Hesitation

Compounding these issues is a record-low housing affordability. Home prices relative to income and inflation are at their highest levels. This affordability crisis is suppressing buyer demand, and prices are not expected to rebound until they drop sufficiently, in conjunction with lower mortgage rates.

The video illustrates this with examples:

Palm Beach Gardens, Florida: A 4-bed, 3-bath, 2,000 sq ft home listed for $675,000, which previously sold for $320,000 in 2018. Despite price cuts from $749,000, the zip code (33148) is still 17.5% overvalued, with a projected 1.5% price drop in the next year, requiring more inventory to achieve a larger decline.
Folsom, California (near Sacramento): A 3-bed, 2-bath, 1300 sq ft home listed for $599,000 ($476/sq ft). The zip code (95630) has already seen prices drop 2.8% in the last year and 9% since mid-2022. A further 2.2% drop is projected for the next year, indicating a continuing correction and a buyer's market.
Poria, Arizona (West of Phoenix): A 3-bed, 2-bath, 2,000 sq ft home listed for $469,000. The owner purchased it for $450,000 in 2023 and attempted to flip it for $540,000. The zip code (85381) has already experienced a 4.2% price drop in the last year, with an additional 4.9% drop anticipated. This indicates a correction is underway, favoring buyers.

Black Friday Sale Announcement

The video concludes with a limited-time Black Friday sale for Reventure App. Users can get 50% off an annual plan by using the code FRIDAY50 at checkout, reducing the monthly cost from $49 to $16. This offer is limited to the first 500 codes and expires at the end of the week.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The housing market is experiencing a significant downturn characterized by historically low buyer demand, a surge in delisted homes, and a growing number of foreclosures. While foreclosure rates are currently low, their increase, combined with rising inventory and stagnant demand, signals potential future price declines. Long-term demographic shifts, including declining birth rates and an aging population, are expected to further suppress demand and increase supply. Record-low affordability exacerbates these issues, keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. Sellers are advised to carefully analyze their local market conditions using tools like Reventure App to make informed decisions, as many delisted homes may only be delaying inevitable price reductions. The current market presents opportunities for buyers and investors in areas with significant price corrections and a buyer's market score.