Record US Black Friday crowds to find fewer bargains amid high prices | REUTERS

Key Concepts

• Black Friday Shopping Trends
• Consumer Spending Forecasts
• Retailer Strategies (Early Promotions, Tariffs)
• Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Services
• Consumer Behavior (Waiting for Deals, Stretching Money)
• Data and Projections (National Retail Federation, Adobe)

Black Friday Shopping Expectations and Consumer Spending

This year's Black Friday is anticipated to see record-breaking crowd sizes, with nearly 187 million individuals expected to shop during the five-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. This figure represents an increase from the approximately 183 million shoppers last year. Despite the higher foot traffic, consumer spending may not proportionally increase. Retailers, facing pressure from tariffs, are offering fewer deals, making genuine bargains more elusive for shoppers.

Retailer Strategies and Early Promotions

To secure sales early, retailers have initiated promotions ahead of the traditional Black Friday period. Walmart commenced its early promotions on November 14th, structured in three phases concluding on December 1st, with Walmart Plus members receiving preferential early access. Amazon launched its Black Friday deals week on Thursday, and Macy's has established a dedicated Black Friday portal.

Sales Forecasts and Growth Projections

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that sales in stores and online for November and December will surpass $1 trillion for the first time. The NRF projects a sales growth of approximately 4%, a slight decrease from the nearly 5% sales increase observed in 2024. Spending per individual consumer is expected to decline slightly.

Consumer Behavior and Payment Trends

A poll conducted by the NRF indicates that a greater number of consumers this year intend to wait for deals specifically during Thanksgiving weekend compared to previous years. Eric Mattisoff, an analytics and data science evangelist at Adobe, notes that consumers are increasingly seeking to defer a larger portion of their purchase price. He highlights a significant increase in the usage of "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) services, with an estimated $2 billion in purchases expected to be made through this technology. This trend suggests consumers remain eager to make purchases and capitalize on discounts but are actively looking for methods to maximize their financial resources and extend their purchasing power.

Challenges in Identifying Optimal Deals

An analyst tracking consumer pricing informed Reuters that pinpointing the opportune moment for the best prices is becoming increasingly difficult. This complexity arises from retailers launching promotions so early in the season. Consequently, these early deals might not be available by the actual Black Friday, or the desired items could be out of stock.

Conclusion

While Black Friday is set to attract a record number of shoppers, the overall spending growth is projected to be modest, with individual spending potentially decreasing. Retailers are employing early promotion strategies to capture sales, but the proliferation of these early deals, coupled with tariff-related pressures, may make finding significant bargains on Black Friday itself challenging. Consumers are demonstrating a strategic approach to their spending, leaning towards BNPL options to manage their budgets and waiting for specific promotional periods, which could lead to stock availability issues for those who delay their purchases.