Record Highs 🔥 Fed Cut, Amazon Layoffs, Trump-Xi Deal — What’s Next? | Oct 28 Live Trading

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript, maintaining the original language and technical precision:

Key Concepts:

• Market Overview: Focus on the NASDAQ reaching all-time highs, anticipation of the Fed rate decision, and a busy earnings season.
• Key Companies & Earnings: Detailed discussion of PayPal, SoFi, DJT (True Social), Nvidia, Amazon, Wayfair, UNH, CCJ, UPS, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple, Oracle, AMD, Intel, Marvell, Palantir, Tesla, Beyond Meat, and others.
• AI Impact: Significant discussion on how AI is influencing corporate layoffs (Amazon) and driving growth in tech sectors (Microsoft, Nvidia).
• Prediction Markets: Introduction of prediction markets as a disruptive force in the betting industry, with DJT's True Social as an example.
• Nuclear Energy Push: Partnership between Brookfield and CCJ with the US government for nuclear reactor construction.
• Trading Strategies: Emphasis on momentum trading, trend breaks, volume-weighted average price (VWAP), and managing risk with stops.
• Economic Data: Mention of upcoming Fed rate decision and consumer confidence/Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

Market Performance and Fed Anticipation

The NASDAQ is trading slightly to the upside, having reached new all-time highs. This comes ahead of a key rate decision from the Federal Reserve tomorrow afternoon. The market is largely anticipating a rate cut, which is considered "baked in" at this point. The transcript highlights a busy earnings season with numerous tech companies reporting.

Notable Company Earnings and News

• PayPal (PYPL): Experienced a significant pop of approximately 15% following its earnings report. The primary driver for this move is attributed to a new partnership with OpenAI, allowing users to make payments directly within ChatGPT. This integration aims to streamline e-commerce by enabling direct purchases through the LLM. Despite the positive earnings beat (11 cents EPS vs. 8 cents expected, $950 million revenue vs. $890 million expected), the stock saw some pullback from its intraday highs, trading around $77-$80. The valuation at 15-16 times P/E is considered attractive.
• SoFi (SOFI): Reported a mixed but generally positive earnings. The company beat expectations with 11 cents EPS versus 8 cents expected and $950 million in revenue versus $890 million expected. While the initial price action was somewhat lackluster, the underlying fundamentals, including a 49% year-over-year increase in EBITDA and consistent member growth (nearly a million new members each quarter), are seen as positive catalysts for future growth. The stock experienced volatility, trading around $30-$31.
• DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group): The stock saw a significant surge, tagging $18, driven by news that True Social will launch prediction markets through a partnership with Crypto.com. This move is seen as potentially disruptive to existing betting platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, as it allows users to bet against each other rather than the house.
• Amazon (AMZN): Announced plans to lay off approximately 14,000 corporate and tech employees, marking its largest corporate downsizing. This is attributed to AI's impact on traditional roles and a broader cost-cutting campaign. The company is offering a 90-day internal job search window for affected employees. The layoffs represent about 4% of its corporate workforce.
• Wayfair (W): Showed strong performance, up 12% intraday and 120% year-to-date.
• UnitedHealth Group (UNH): Reported a double beat on earnings and raised its fiscal 2025 gap EPS guidance. Despite this, the stock gave up significant intraday gains and was trading red.
• Cameco (CCJ): A uranium play, up 15% today, breaching $100. This surge is linked to a major partnership with Brookfield and the US government to construct at least $80 billion worth of new nuclear reactors, driven by soaring electricity demands from AI and data centers. This aligns with President Trump's executive order promoting nuclear energy.
• UPS: Reported strong Q3 earnings with EPS of $1.74 (beating $1.30 expected) and revenue of $21.41 billion (beating $20.83 billion expected). The company is focusing on higher-margin shipments and reducing Amazon-related volume. Despite the beat, the stock remained down 28% year-to-date. A key level to watch for UPS is closing above the $100 mark and the 200-period moving average.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Experienced a significant rally, up 2.5% and breaking out technically to over $530, reaching all-time highs. This move is fueled by news of a substantial deal with OpenAI, including a commitment to purchase $250 billion worth of Azure cloud computing services over several years. Microsoft's stake in OpenAI is valued at $135 billion under this new pact. The company retains IP rights over OpenAI's research until AGI is achieved or 2030.
• Nvidia (NVDA): CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington and will deliver a keynote speech at the GTC Washington event. Nvidia is seeking $50 billion in China market sales and R&D funding, facing ongoing restrictions on chip sales to China. The stock is showing strength, trading near all-time highs.
• Apple (AAPL): Reached a $4 trillion market cap for the first time.
• Oracle (ORCL): Saw some volume and bounced back after a previous dip, finding support around $270-$283.
• Marvell (MRVL): Considered an "undercover" play in the semiconductor space, showing strength and breaking through the $90 level.
• Palantir (PLTR): Trading around the $190 mark, near all-time highs. A short opportunity was discussed if it failed to break above $192.50.
• Tesla (TSLA): Showed significant intraday volatility, with a strong rally and a subsequent pullback. A potential reversal was discussed if it failed to break above $460.
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Highlighted as a strong performer, with a focus on outperforming Nvidia. The stock has seen significant gains since June, with pullbacks offering entry opportunities. Short opportunities were also discussed around the $260 mark.
• Cybersecurity Stocks (Snow, Zscaler, Palo Alto Networks): These names are seeing breakouts and are considered AI plays that will continue to benefit from increased demand for cybersecurity solutions.
• Robotics and EVs: Areas of interest include XPEV (China EV and humanoid robot "Iron") and other speculative names like Serve and Richte. ISRG is mentioned as a high-quality investment in surgical robotics.
• Nuclear Energy: NE and GEV are mentioned as potential plays, with NE needing to break above $46.40.
• Beyond Meat (BYND): Attempting to bounce, with a focus on fading at yesterday's double top and potential mean reversion trades.

Step-by-Step Processes and Methodologies

• Trading Strategy: The transcript emphasizes a momentum-driven approach, looking for trend breaks, VWAP plays, and managing risk with stops. Patience is key, especially when dealing with volatile stocks or waiting for specific entry levels.
• Risk Management: The importance of using stops is repeatedly stressed, particularly for short positions and when dealing with potential reversals. Taking partial profits is also a common strategy.
• Identifying Opportunities: Traders are encouraged to look for industry-wide trends (e.g., cybersecurity, AI) and then identify strong charts within those sectors.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• AI as a Disruptor: AI is seen as a significant factor driving both job cuts in traditional roles and growth in AI-related technologies and services.
• Valuation vs. Growth: The discussion around AMD and Nvidia highlights the debate between valuation and growth potential, with AMD being considered expensive but still a strong performer.
• Earnings Risk: Taking positions into earnings is generally viewed as risky due to the potential for significant price swings.
• Market Leadership: Microsoft's strong performance, driven by the OpenAI deal, is seen as a current market leader, while Google and Meta are down ahead of their earnings.

Notable Quotes and Statements

• "Can it be just Nvidia forever? And the most likely answer to that is no." (Implied perspective on market concentration)
• "Prediction markets are going to be very very disruptive to your DraftKings, to your FanDuels because you're betting against other players as opposed to the house." (Explanation of prediction market disruption)
• "I'm never an earnings type of guy, man. There's just too much disaster on earnings." (Mitch's perspective on trading earnings)
• "AMD is just a beast. And I'm just glad that we brought it here, guys, in all the way in June." (Enthusiasm for AMD's performance)
• "The only thing that we needed to see was was the actual money, right? The fundamentals behind this play because I think it has the catalyst." (Mitch on SoFi's fundamentals)
• "Microsoft has been a sleeping giant and now you're breaking out technically to 530 anyways." (Observation on Microsoft's breakout)
• "The market is just blasting around right now. I mean, be very, very patient with these plays." (Cautionary note on market volatility)
• "The only problem is is what's the market going to do because you know like shorting AMD is obviously going to be a problem and right now 264 for AMD." (Dilemma of shorting a strong stock in a falling market)
• "The strangest thing right now, yeah, Microsoft is that Microsoft is they're the ones with the big AI story from Open AI and the market is trend up from the open. That's the NASDAQ. Higher highs and higher lows and Microsoft is lower highs and lower lows because logic." (Observation on market disconnect)
• "AMD is cranking lower by the way. Now 450 on that one as the market bleeds a little lower." (Confirmation of AMD's downside move)
• "The only red trade that I have on the board today, which is fine by me, and we got stopped at when we were getting these guys coffees." (Acknowledgement of a losing trade)
• "My stop for AMD is still 261. This is by far just this stock alone is gets me the daily goal." (AMD's significant contribution to daily trading goals)
• "The market did have to fall down, you know, for this to obviously happen. And then AMD, man, the stock that we were down on now is my number one easily." (AMD's turnaround from a losing position)
• "The only thing that's concerning me is the market is trying to dip here. But PayPal like it's got every it's got a lot of things going for it." (Analysis of PayPal's strength amidst market weakness)
• "The only red trade that I have on the board today, which is fine by me, and we got stopped at when we were getting these guys coffees." (Acknowledgement of a losing trade)
• "My stop for AMD is still 261. This is by far just this stock alone is gets me the daily goal." (AMD's significant contribution to daily trading goals)
• "The market did have to fall down, you know, for this to obviously happen. And then AMD, man, the stock that we were down on now is my number one easily." (AMD's turnaround from a losing position)
• "The only thing that's concerning me is the market is trying to dip here. But PayPal like it's got every it's got a lot of things going for it." (Analysis of PayPal's strength amidst market weakness)

Technical Terms and Concepts

• VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): A trading benchmark used to gauge the average price a stock has traded at throughout the day, based on volume. Plays are often made around VWAP.
• LLM (Large Language Model): Refers to AI models like ChatGPT, which are becoming integrated into e-commerce and payment systems.
• AGI (Artificial General Intelligence): A hypothetical future stage of AI development where machines can understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a human level.
• EPS (Earnings Per Share): A company's net profit divided by the number of outstanding shares.
• P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): A valuation ratio of a company's stock price to its earnings per share.
• EMA (Exponential Moving Average): A type of moving average that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points.
• 9 MA / 200 MA: Refers to the 9-period and 200-period moving averages, commonly used for trend identification and entry/exit signals.
• IP Rights (Intellectual Property Rights): Legal rights that protect creations of the mind, such as inventions and artistic works.
• API (Application Programming Interface): A set of rules and protocols that allows different software applications to communicate with each other.
• Gamma Exposure: In options trading, gamma refers to the rate of change of an option's delta. High gamma exposure can lead to significant price swings.
• Delta: In options trading, delta measures the expected change in an option's price for a one-point change in the underlying asset's price.
• SSR (Short Sale Restriction): A rule that may prevent short selling of a stock when its price has fallen significantly.
• Trend Line Break: A technical analysis concept where a stock's price moves decisively above or below a trend line, signaling a potential change in direction.
• Topping Tail Candle: A candlestick pattern that suggests a potential reversal to the downside.
• Double Bottom: A bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend, consisting of two distinct lows at roughly the same price level.
• Mean Reversion: A trading strategy that assumes prices will eventually revert to their historical average.
• Short Float: The percentage of a company's float that has been sold short. A high short float can indicate potential for a short squeeze.
• Basis Points: A unit of measure used in finance to denote the smallest change in a financial instrument. 1 basis point = 0.01%.
• Fiscal Year Guidance: A company's projection of its financial performance for the upcoming fiscal year.
• Dissenting Vote: In the context of the Fed, a dissenting vote indicates a disagreement among committee members on monetary policy decisions.
• Market Cap (Market Capitalization): The total value of a company's outstanding shares.
• Float: The number of shares of a company that are available for trading by the public.
• Squeeze Play: A situation where a stock's price rapidly increases due to a large number of short sellers being forced to buy back shares to cover their positions.
• Scalping: A trading strategy that aims to make small profits on small price changes throughout the day.
• Hedging: A strategy used to offset potential losses or gains that may be incurred by a companion investment.
• Leveraged ETFs: Exchange-traded funds that use financial derivatives and debt to amplify the returns of an underlying index.
• Inverse ETFs: ETFs designed to move in the opposite direction of an underlying index.
• Currency Hedging: A strategy to protect against losses from fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
• Super Chat: A feature on YouTube that allows viewers to pay to have their messages highlighted in live chat.

Logical Connections Between Sections

The transcript flows logically from a broad market overview to specific company news and trading opportunities. The anticipation of the Fed decision sets the stage for market sentiment. Earnings reports from major tech companies like PayPal, SoFi, and Microsoft directly influence intraday trading and sector performance. The discussion of AI's impact connects corporate actions (layoffs) with technological advancements and market trends. The introduction of prediction markets and the nuclear energy push highlight emerging investment themes. The latter part of the transcript focuses heavily on real-time trading, with specific entry and exit points discussed for various stocks, demonstrating the application of the discussed concepts.

Data, Research Findings, and Statistics

• NASDAQ: Reached all-time highs.
• PayPal: Up 15% intraday, 120% year-to-date. Valuation at 15-16x P/E.
• SoFi: EBITDA up 49% YoY. Added nearly a million members each quarter.
• DJT: Tagged $18.
• Amazon: Laying off 14,000 corporate jobs (4% of corporate workforce), potential for 30,000 total layoffs. Employs 1.54 million worldwide.
• CCJ: Up 15%, breached $100.
• UPS: Q3 EPS $1.74 (vs. $1.30 expected), Revenue $21.41 billion (vs. $20.83 billion expected). Down 28% YTD. Q4 revenue projected at $24 billion.
• Microsoft: Up 2.5%, broke out to over $530. $250 billion commitment to Azure from OpenAI. OpenAI stake valued at $135 billion.
• Apple: Reached $4 trillion market cap.
• Nvidia: Seeking $50 billion in China market sales and R&D funding.
• Consumer Confidence: Forecast 93.75, previous 94.2, actual 94.6.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: Previous -17, forecast -12, actual -4.
• VEE: Received HHS authority to operate at FedRAMP high level.
• XHLD: $5 million market cap, $5 million share float.
• WLF: Trading at day's highs.
• Trade the Pool: 70% profit share for traders.
• AMD: Short position down $2-$4.50+ in the money.
• TQQQ: Short position down $1.75+ in the money.
• SoFi: Down 10% at one point, reloaded at $28.80-$29.20.
• Beyond Meat: Hit $225 level.
• Open Door: Up 4%, potential gap fill to $8.70-$9.
• Silver: Approaching a bounce zone.
• Gold: Approaching resistance at $427.
• Estee Lauder: Pulling back towards $96.50.
• Boeing: Breaking and holding 50-period MA, testing top trendline.
• IBM: Trading around $300, 3% dividend.
• US Dollar: Five consecutive red days, lower high from last FOMC meeting.
• OpenAI Valuation: Private market cap estimated at $500 billion.

Clear Section Headings

The summary is structured with clear headings for each major topic discussed.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The day was characterized by a strong NASDAQ performance, driven by significant tech earnings and AI-related news, particularly the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership. While the Fed decision looms, the market is focused on individual company catalysts. Trading activity was dynamic, with a focus on momentum plays, short opportunities in names like AMD and TQQQ, and some long trades in SoFi and PayPal. Risk management through stops and patience were emphasized as crucial for navigating the volatile market. Emerging themes like prediction markets and nuclear energy also gained attention. The day highlighted the continued dominance of AI in shaping market narratives and corporate strategies.