'Rate of killing in Iran is four times worse than Srebrenica', says former UN prosecutor

Key Concepts

• Mass Killings in Iran: The central topic, focusing on the scale and severity of recent violence against protestors.
• UN Fact-Finding Mission: A UN initiative to investigate the events and gather evidence.
• International Criminal Court (ICC): A potential avenue for prosecution of perpetrators, though currently facing obstacles.
• Misinformation & Verification: The challenges of obtaining accurate information due to government blackouts and manipulation.
• Forensic Evidence & Extrapolation: The methodology used to estimate the number of deaths based on medical and morgue records.
• Srebrenica Genocide: Used as a comparative benchmark for the scale of violence.

The Unprecedented Scale of Violence in Iran: A Detailed Account

This discussion with Pa Akavan, a former UN prosecutor and human rights lawyer, details the alarming situation in Iran following recent protests, focusing on the scale of violence perpetrated by the government and the challenges in achieving accountability. The conversation highlights the unprecedented nature of the current crackdown compared to previous episodes of unrest in Iranian history.

The Scale of the Killings & Verification Challenges

The primary focus of the discussion is the staggering number of deaths resulting from the government’s response to the protests. While acknowledging varying figures, Akavan presents a disturbing estimate of at least 33,000 people killed, based on data compiled by a network of Iranian medical doctors and statisticians analyzing clinical and forensic records. This figure is derived from extrapolating raw data from hospitals and morgues, and is described as a “conservative estimate.”

He contrasts this with official admissions from the Islamic Republic, which initially claimed 5,000 deaths, then revised it down to 3,000, characterizing this as a pattern of deliberate misinformation. Other reported figures range from 3,000 to 6,000 deaths, with 17,000 recorded deaths currently under investigation, and a potential total of 22,000.

The difficulty in verifying these numbers is attributed to a deliberate internet shutdown and blackout imposed by the regime, coupled with mass burials where bodies are being removed to eliminate records. Akavan emphasizes that even the lower estimates represent the largest mass killing in contemporary Iranian history, significantly exceeding the death tolls from protests in 2009, 2019, and 2022. He points to images from the Kahisak Morgan in Iran, showing “several hundred bodies in black bags” as visual evidence of the scale of the violence.

Akavan’s Testimony to the UN Human Rights Council

Akavan was recently invited to address the UN Human Rights Council regarding the mass killings. He chose to highlight the statistical evidence supporting the high death toll, emphasizing the credibility of the network of Iranian medical professionals providing the data. He underscored the regime’s consistent pattern of underreporting casualties.

International Response & Pursuit of Justice

Akavan argues that the international community must take several key steps:

1. Condemn the mass murder: A clear and unequivocal condemnation of the government’s actions is essential.
2. Investigate and gather evidence: The UN Human Rights Council has already renewed the mandate of the International Fact-Finding Mission in Geneva to facilitate this process.
3. Ensure accountability: Perpetrators must be informed that they will be held accountable for their crimes.
4. Referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC): Akavan advocates for the UN Security Council to refer the matter to the ICC, despite acknowledging the current impossibility of arresting Iranian leaders.

He stresses the importance of pursuing justice, even if it is delayed, as a crucial step towards building a better future for Iran. He states, “It’s impossible to build a better future if these horrific crimes are left unaddressed.” He draws a parallel to the Srebrenica genocide in the Yugoslav war, noting that the scale of killing in Iran is “four times worse.”

Geopolitical Context & the Iranian People’s Aspirations

Akavan acknowledges the complex geopolitical landscape, with countries like the United States, Israel, Iran, China, and Russia pursuing their own interests. However, he emphasizes that the Iranian people’s primary desire is to “live in freedom, to live in dignity.” He describes the nation as “deeply traumatized” and “in mourning.”

Notable Quote

“The Iranian people cannot forget the scale of the crimes that have been committed… and it’s impossible to build a better future if these horrific crimes are left unaddressed.” – Pa Akavan.

Technical Terms & Concepts

• Forensic Evidence: Scientific evidence obtained from medical examinations and investigations of deaths.
• Extrapolation: Inferring or estimating unknown values based on known data. In this case, using hospital and morgue records to estimate the total number of deaths.
• Blackout: The deliberate suppression of information, particularly through internet shutdowns and media censorship.
• International Fact-Finding Mission: A UN-mandated investigation to gather evidence and establish facts related to human rights violations.
• International Criminal Court (ICC): An international tribunal that prosecutes individuals for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression.

Synthesis & Conclusion

The conversation paints a grim picture of the situation in Iran, characterized by an unprecedented level of state-sponsored violence against protestors. The sheer scale of the killings, coupled with the regime’s deliberate efforts to conceal information, presents significant challenges to achieving accountability. Akavan’s testimony underscores the urgent need for international condemnation, investigation, and a commitment to pursuing justice for the victims, even if it requires a long-term strategy focused on future prosecution in a democratic Iran. The core takeaway is the severity of the human rights crisis unfolding in Iran and the imperative for the international community to respond effectively.