Putin warns Europe: if you want war, then Russia will defeat you • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Putin's Stance: Firm, threatening, and accusatory towards Europe regarding peace talks.
• Peace Proposal: A 28-point proposal, initially rejected by Ukraine, then amended with European and American help.
• European Role: Accused by Putin of hindering peace efforts and having a "war agenda."
• Zelensky's Demands: Seeking a "coalition of the willing" for post-war security and financial aid from frozen Russian assets.
• Frozen Russian Assets: A point of contention within the EU regarding their transfer to Ukraine.
• Minsk Protocol: Referenced as a past agreement that Russia did not adhere to, leading to renewed conflict.

Putin's Firm Stance and Accusations Against Europe

Philip Tur, international affairs editor, analyzes Vladimir Putin's seemingly firm stance preceding talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and potentially Jared Kushner. Putin has publicly accused Europe of hindering US attempts to end the war in Ukraine by proposing terms unacceptable to Russia. He stated that Europeans have "locked themselves out of peace talks by cutting contact with Moscow" and are seeking "unacceptable demands." Putin declared, "If Europe wants to fight a war, we are ready now. They do not have a peaceful agenda. They're on the side of war." He further threatened to "increase strikes on facilities in Ukraine and on Ukrainian vessels and on other foreign vessels that are trying to help Ukraine." This rhetoric is described as "threatening" and "menacing."

The 28-Point Peace Proposal and its Amendments

The discussion centers on an amended version of a 28-point peace proposal that was rejected by Ukraine approximately a week prior. This revised proposal was developed with the assistance of Europeans and Americans. The question is raised whether Putin's strong statements indicate a rejection of this amended proposal even before the talks commence, particularly if Russia insists on the original terms. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking from Ireland, expressed a more positive outlook, suggesting a potential for moving forward, but Putin's pre-talk pronouncements cast doubt on this optimism.

Zelensky's Multifaceted Challenges and European Demands

Volodymyr Zelensky is portrayed as facing immense pressure on multiple fronts. He is under constant threat of assassination, dealing with Russian advances on the front lines resulting in thousands of Ukrainian troop casualties, and struggling to secure international support for the war effort. His current diplomatic efforts involve traveling globally to garner support.

Zelensky's primary demands from Europe are twofold:

1. "Coalition of the Willing" and Post-War Security: He seeks assurances that after a peace deal is reached, Europe will establish a mechanism to prevent Russia from re-initiating conflict, referencing the failure of the Minsk protocol. He also desires European and potentially British and French troops, backed by US air power, to act as a peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
2. Financial Aid from Frozen Russian Assets: Zelensky is requesting money in the form of frozen Russian assets held by the European Union in a Belgian bank. This is a contentious issue within the EU. Belgium is hesitant to release the funds due to legal concerns. Some EU countries are willing to transfer the interest generated from these assets, while others advocate for handing over the entire sum, estimated to be between $100 to $130 billion. Zelensky emphasizes Ukraine's desperate need for this money to have a chance of winning the war.

Conclusion

The analysis highlights a significant disconnect between Putin's aggressive rhetoric and Zelensky's diplomatic efforts. Putin's public statements appear to be setting a high bar and attempting to sideline European involvement, while Zelensky is actively seeking international security guarantees and financial support. The fate of the amended peace proposal and the resolution of the frozen asset dispute remain key uncertainties in the ongoing conflict.