Putin on the back foot? Russian president in China as Ukraine campaign stalls • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership: The 30-year-old framework governing relations between Moscow and Beijing, currently characterized by mutual economic and political convenience rather than a formal alliance.
• Power of Siberia 2: A proposed major natural gas pipeline project intended to double Russian gas exports to China; currently stalled due to Chinese caution regarding over-dependence on a single supplier.
• Asymmetrical Warfare: The use of unconventional tactics (e.g., drone strikes on refineries, shadow fleet attacks) by Ukraine to offset Russia’s conventional military superiority.
• Nuclear Signaling: The use of military drills (including joint exercises with Belarus) as a psychological tool to project strength and deter Western intervention.
• Social Contract (Russia): The implicit agreement where citizens remain politically apathetic in exchange for stable living standards, a contract currently strained by economic decline and the war.

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1. The Geopolitical Dynamics of the Beijing Visits

The discussion highlights the contrasting visits of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to Beijing. While Trump’s visit was viewed as lacking concrete outcomes, Putin’s visit is perceived as more consequential due to the depth of the Sino-Russian economic lifeline.

• China’s Leverage: Beijing is currently the primary buyer of sanctioned Russian oil and acts as a critical economic stabilizer for Moscow.
• Strategic Caution: Despite the "unprecedented level" of relations, China remains deliberate. Xi Jinping is hesitant to commit to the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, as China seeks to avoid energy dependency on any single nation, even a strategic partner.
• Symbolism vs. Substance: Experts argue that much of the current diplomatic activity is symbolic, aimed at demonstrating that Russia is not isolated, even as the actual economic benefits remain marginal.

2. The War in Ukraine and Russian Vulnerability

The panel analyzed how the battlefield situation has shifted, with Ukraine successfully exposing Russian weaknesses.

• Drone Warfare: Ukraine has utilized drone technology to strike deep into Russian territory, specifically targeting oil refineries (e.g., the Tuapsi refinery, which saw a 65% drop in exports).
• Technological Parity: Ukraine’s ability to innovate in drone and anti-drone technology has made it a potential partner for other nations, including China, which is interested in acquiring unique battlefield data and technology.
• Economic Hardship: Despite rising oil prices, Russia’s output has shrunk. Heavy military spending and the depletion of national wealth reserves are creating long-term economic instability that cannot be easily mended by short-term oil sales.

3. Domestic Sentiment and the "Special Military Operation"

• Apathy: Russian society remains largely apathetic. Boris Bonderef notes that while dissatisfaction is rising, it is a slow process. The state propaganda machine successfully prevents the public from connecting the dots between the war, economic decline, and drone attacks on Russian soil.
• The Social Contract: Mikail Polanski argues that the traditional social contract—political indifference for economic stability—is failing as living standards drop and the war "hits home" via drone strikes.

4. Nuclear Posturing: Strength or Weakness?

The Kremlin’s recent nuclear drills with Belarus are interpreted as a "double-edged sword":

• Significance: They demonstrate a formidable arsenal and serve as a response to NATO’s nuclear sharing.
• Desperation: Experts argue that the frequency of these threats suggests a lack of conventional options. With the Russian military unable to achieve a breakthrough in Ukraine, nuclear rhetoric has become the "last magic wand" available to Putin.

5. Diplomatic Frameworks and Future Mediation

• The Role of Europe: There is a push for Europe to act as a united front. The recent political shift in Hungary, with new leadership engaging with Kyiv on minority rights, is seen as a positive step toward European cohesion.
• Mediation: While Angela Merkel has been suggested as a potential mediator due to her experience with the Minsk agreements, the panel emphasized that the primary obstacle is not the identity of the mediator, but the lack of political will from Moscow to end the conflict.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The consensus among the experts is that while Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing serves as a vital symbolic display of partnership, it does not mask the underlying reality of Russia’s growing dependence on China and its increasing vulnerability on the battlefield. Ukraine’s shift toward asymmetrical warfare—specifically through drone strikes—has forced Russia into a defensive posture that its conventional military and propaganda apparatus are struggling to manage. Ultimately, the "momentum" of the war is being challenged by Ukraine’s technological agility and a potential strengthening of European diplomatic unity, leaving Russia in a precarious position where its reliance on nuclear posturing and Chinese economic support is becoming its primary, albeit fragile, strategy for survival.