Putin has 'something to back his confidence with', analyst says • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Frozen Russian Assets
• EU Funding for Ukraine
• Belgian Opposition to Asset Use
• NATO Readiness
• Russian Threats and Intimidation
• European Mental Readiness for Conflict
• Violation of European Airspace
• Ukrainian Frustration with Backer Stamina
• Lithuanian Airport Closure due to Balloons
• Russian Narrative of Winning
• Negotiation Stalemate (Ukraine/Russia)
• Constitutional Issues regarding Ukrainian Territories
• Territorial Concessions and Putin's Appetite
• Strategic Importance of Donbas Towns

EU Plan for Frozen Russian Assets

The European Union is developing a plan to utilize frozen Russian assets to provide approximately 90 billion euros in funding for Ukraine over the next two years. This initiative aims to address Ukraine's significant budget deficits, exacerbated by Russia's ongoing invasion. However, Belgium has expressed strong opposition to this plan, primarily because a substantial portion of these frozen assets are held within Belgium.

NATO's Stance and Russian Provocations

In response to escalating tensions, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has declared that NATO is prepared to defend its 1 billion citizens. This statement comes amidst continued Russian provocations, including Vladimir Putin's recent remarks about being ready to fight Europe if necessary. The transcript highlights a concern that Europe may not be mentally prepared to confront the Russian threat, with an author in Spain's El Pais suggesting an average European might retreat from global problems. Putin is perceived to be aware of this and uses such statements strategically to intimidate both Europeans and Americans.

Evidence of Russian Intimidation

• Bravado and Threats: Putin has previously expressed willingness to continue fighting, as noted at a regional security meeting in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.
• Airspace Violations: Over the past few years, Russia has repeatedly violated the airspace of several European countries, including Poland and Romania, with minimal response from the affected nations. This lack of decisive action has led to Ukrainian frustration, as their backers appear to be losing stamina.

Border Incidents and Russian Influence

The transcript mentions a recent incident where Vilnius Airport in Lithuania was closed due to balloons floating across. These balloons were launched from Belarus, which is described as a vassal state manipulated by Russia. This incident underscores the ongoing security concerns and Russian influence in the region, particularly given Belarus's role in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The Narrative of Russian Victory and Negotiation Stalemate

Peter Smayv discusses the narrative that Russia is winning the war, despite the initial objective of taking all of Ukraine in three days not being met. While a portion of Ukraine remains occupied, Russia seeks further territorial gains, which Ukraine is unwilling to cede.

Analysis of Moscow Meeting

Smayv was not surprised by the lack of progress in the Moscow meeting involving figures like Wickoff Kushner and Putin. He posits that both Ukraine and Russia have been drawn into a negotiation process somewhat against their will, influenced by the American side.

• Ukrainian Motivation: Ukraine cannot afford to alienate Trump and his associates.
• Russian Motivation: Putin aims to avoid additional sanctions and project an image of peace.

Territorial Concessions: A Non-Starter

The core issue preventing negotiation is Russia's demand for territorial concessions. This is a non-starter for both sides due to constitutional and practical reasons:

• Russian Constitution: Russia has incorporated four Ukrainian regions into its constitution as part of Russia proper, up to their administrative borders.
• Ukrainian Constitution: Ukraine cannot unilaterally cede these regions; any such decision would require a popular referendum.
• Historical Precedent: The annexation of Crimea demonstrated that territorial gains only whet Putin's appetite. Granting him the remaining parts of Donbas would place him in a significantly more advantageous position to continue his aggression.
• Strategic Towns: The remaining parts of Donbas include strategically important "town fortresses" like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens residing there.
• Putin's Strategy: Putin understands these realities and is probing for a win-win scenario. If he can acquire territory without further conflict, it's ideal. If Ukraine refuses, he can continue fighting.
• Political Ramifications for Ukraine: Any Ukrainian president who signs away these territories would face immediate removal from office, making it a politically impossible proposition.

Conclusion

The situation remains precarious, with ongoing Russian provocations and a complex geopolitical landscape. The EU's plan to utilize frozen Russian assets faces internal opposition, while NATO asserts its readiness to defend its members. The core of the conflict, however, lies in Russia's territorial ambitions and Ukraine's unyielding defense of its sovereignty, further complicated by constitutional barriers to any potential territorial concessions. The transcript concludes with a somber acknowledgment of the ongoing threat of Russian missile and drone attacks in Kyiv.