Putin and Xi show unity, but fail to reach deal on Russia's key gas pipeline | DW News

Key Concepts

• Multipolar World Order: A geopolitical vision shared by Russia and China to reduce U.S. hegemony and create a system where multiple powers (specifically China, Russia, and the U.S.) exert influence.
• Power of Siberia 2: A proposed major gas pipeline project intended to transport Russian natural gas to China; currently stalled due to pricing and dependency concerns.
• Dual-Use Technology: Goods or components (such as electronics, machine tools, and drones) that have both civilian and military applications, currently being exported by China to Russia.
• Strategic Neutrality: China’s diplomatic stance on the war in Ukraine, characterized by public calls for peace while maintaining economic and logistical support for Russia.
• Asymmetric Partnership: The evolving dynamic where Russia, despite its status as a "great power," is increasingly viewed as the junior partner due to its economic reliance on China.

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1. Main Topics and Key Points

• Unprecedented Ties: President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing to mark the 25th anniversary of the friendship treaty, describing the relationship as having reached an "unprecedentedly high level."
• Geopolitical Signaling: The visit served as a platform for both leaders to project strength. For Xi, it reinforces Beijing as a central global power broker; for Putin, it serves to counter narratives of international isolation.
• Economic Cooperation: While 40 documents were signed covering trade, energy, and media, the absence of a deal on the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline was a significant omission.
• The "Law of the Jungle": Both leaders warned against unilateralism and hegemony, framing their cooperation as a necessary defense against a world they perceive as regressing toward chaotic, power-based competition.

2. Real-World Applications and Examples

• The Drone Market: Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution) noted that Chinese drone manufacturers are selling to both Russia and Ukraine, sometimes scheduling meetings for the two sides at different times of the day to avoid conflict. This highlights China’s "unsentimental" and profit-driven approach to the conflict.
• Energy Leverage: Russia sought to use the energy crisis and instability in the Strait of Hormuz to pressure China into a favorable gas deal, but China resisted, prioritizing its own long-term economic interests over immediate Russian needs.

3. Methodologies and Frameworks

• The "Tripolar" Strategy: According to Professor Mikhail Alexseev, Russia’s elite view the goal of their current foreign policy as establishing a tripolar world where Russia, China, and the U.S. negotiate spheres of influence, with Ukraine falling under the Russian sphere.
• Hollowing the Liberal Core: Analysts suggest that China and Russia are actively working to undermine the liberal international order, which they view as a constraint on their national ambitions.

4. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• The "Junior Partner" Dilemma: While Russia insists on being an equal partner, economic data and trade reliance suggest China holds the upper hand. Russia’s elites are reportedly uncomfortable with this subordinate status but feel compelled to maintain the alliance to sustain their war effort in Ukraine.
• China’s Strategic Calculus: China benefits from a "protracted stalemate" in Ukraine. This weakens the West and the U.S.-Europe alliance without forcing China to fully commit to a Russian victory, which could trigger severe Western sanctions.
• Global South Positioning: China maintains its "neutral" stance partly to appeal to the Global South, where it competes with the West for influence and resources.

5. Notable Quotes

• Vladimir Putin: "A day apart feels like three autumns," used to emphasize the depth of the Russia-China relationship.
• Vladimir Putin: "Unilateralism and hegemony pose grave dangers and the world faces the risk of regressing to the law of the jungle."
• Ryan Hass: "I think that the Chinese are pretty unsentimental and agnostic about how this war plays out."

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The summit between Putin and Xi underscored a deepening strategic alignment aimed at challenging U.S. global dominance. However, the relationship remains transactional rather than truly equal. China is successfully positioning itself as a central power broker, leveraging its economic importance to Russia while avoiding the risks of full-scale military involvement. The failure to sign the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline deal highlights that despite the rhetoric of "unshakable" friendship, both nations remain cold-eyed realists, with China unwilling to sacrifice its economic leverage or global standing to bail out Russia’s long-term energy infrastructure. The partnership is defined by a shared desire to dismantle the current international order, even as they navigate the complexities of their own asymmetric economic dependence.